Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

- Covid still a thing, but much greater geographic divergence of vaxed and non-vaxed areas, leading to political and economic turmoil in those areas "left behind" and most impacted (more fun from Trump counties). Folks find that WFH in rural areas isn't all that great when everyone's sick and your kids' school is always closed

- Because of push-back on supply chain and other issues, Biden and Harris are massively unpopular for 2022, which causes a greater split among Dems (similar to Howard Dean in 2002, who broke with CW to become popular). Perhaps it's a young populist Dem who doesn't talk about "woke" stuff but squarely focuses on the unrest caused by bad cops, bad protestors (including on the right), and bad econ policy

- It's been predicted since forever, but a major revolution about Jan 6 and Trump, which the press won't care about

- Meta as the new 5G; whole lot of hype but too bulky to be useful

- Unionizing begins to impact professional sector, as employers want employees back in the office as the labor market tightens

- As disenchanted people are sick of online conspiracies, a reformist Social Contract-like movement takes hold

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice.

If we lock down in 2022, what's to stop another lockdown in 2024 and in 2026 etc.? Imagine the mental health implications, especially on children and teenagers, whose entire childhood would be altered by covid. Imagine "who knows if we're going to have Christmas this year? We have to see the forecast for cases and hospitalizations", every year for every special event. People will celebrate Christmas and hang out and go to huge events or they will literally go insane.

Also, there would be massive supply chain issues like you said. Possibly big enough to actually kill people. So now we have to actually weigh the casualties of lockdown vs the casualties of a virus.

It was different in 2020. The lockdown in 2020 was designed to be short-term. It was also much more serious, because we had no idea just how dangerous covid was, and we actually had a chance of eradicating the disease entirely. That's why we could shut-down schools, cancel events planned years in advance, make court appointments virtual, and otherwise significantly alter critical parts of society.

And even then, even in early 2020, there was a not-so-small vocal minority of people (idiots) who refused to believe covid existed.

That's not to say we'll do nothing and assume covid is over. I do believe society can adjust to "stay safe" in the long-term with routine vaccination, mask-wearing in public spaces, and just being aware that covid exists. Also things like WVH and online classes (for those who want to take online) are here to stay. But people are not going to follow a "new normal" where every social interaction is weighed against the virus.

Thinking about this as a red/blue issue was your first mistake.