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Will real estate ever be normal again?

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Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#361

Post by sumedh »

arcticbull wrote: post #122
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

This is only part of the problem - and a small part of the problem at that. The real problem as always is zoning. Houses cost roughly the same on a $/sqft basis, adjusted for inflation, as they did in the 1970s. They're more expensive now because outside of town they're twice as big on average [1] - in part due to zoning rules. In town, zoning rules preclude densification necessary for supply to meet demand [2]. And,…

> This chart alone basically debunks the theory the Fed is solely responsible for lower housing affordability.

Have you looked at Japan's population, its "dead ass flat" while US population keeps going up.

https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#place=country%2FJPN%2...

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#362

Post by nicbou »

autarch wrote: post #266
shephardjhon wrote: post #146

I am surprized no one me tioned we could just limit home ownership to 2-3 for individuals and lets say 20 or so for a company. The actual limits can be decided based on discussion and metrics but just having a limit, any limit could stop companies or rich assholes from buying real estate as "assets" as opposed to a place where people live. Also a limit on just holding property that is meant to be rented out. Either u…

Instead of artificially limiting demand I think it'd be better to stop artificially limiting supply (zoning). If there was enough housing to meet demand, then it would naturally be a poorer investment, and so rich assholes would stop buying so much of it.

That didn't fix the issue for us in Europe, with out reasonable zoning laws.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#363

Post by bradlys »

alexose wrote: post #74

I know this may be sacrilege to some, but: Consider moving to a less desirable place if you can. I got priced out of my hometown of Seattle. So I moved to a small town in rural Oregon and I couldn't be happier. The combination of spending comparatively little on housing + a tech salary is hard to beat. I have my own shop! It feels like freedom, even if it comes at the cost of being near my extended family.

> I got priced out of my hometown of Seattle. So I moved to a small town in rural Oregon and I couldn't be happier.

Idk. I grew up in rural Oregon. And I hate Seattle with a passion. But I don’t know if having meth heads for neighbors is really the way I’d go.

Going for more rural/less-expensive regions might be beneficial for some but there are some serious downsides and costs for people with children, people who like to be around educated people, for those who care about diversity, and for those who aren’t aligned with “conservative” or religious people.

It’s not really the same at all and it’s why I don’t move out to BFE. I hate dealing with meth heads and I think it’s one of the worst regions to raise children. But that’s my experience - native rural Oregonian having lived in Seattle and now living in SV.

Would not recommend. Simplest way to put it - it’s like regressing back in time 30 years culturally. Also total shit opportunities for those who aren’t working remotely. (This means opportunities for children too - the schools are real bad because they’re so culturally behind)

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#364

Post by KaiserPro »

mbesto wrote: post #27
KaiserPro wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there are no jobs there. Yes remote might fix that, eventually. But I strongly doubt that, especially as humans are social animals.[1] However The UK is a more extreme version of this. People move to london because it has the most concentration of high paying jobs, and as a side effect culture (what that is I leave up to you. I don't just mean music, cinema and posh people shit.) Now, I could move back to bum…

> Because there are no jobs there. This is simply not true. There are a record number of job openings. I would go on to say that there has never been a time in history where finding a job was this easy. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL "The number of job openings was little changed at 10.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor S…

Yes, but are they high paying, high security jobs?

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#365

Post by leppr »

mgh2 wrote: post #302
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

There seems to be a possible, overlooked cause & effect in the current landscape: If FIRE followers scale the strategy of investing and renting multiple homes, are they not limiting housing supply for other potential homeowners or exacerbating homelessness? It is not just that houses are not being built, but that a shortage of supply is caused by the FIRE generation: buying houses as investments rather places to live…

The rise of passive investing and FIRE is just a natural consequence of the "infinite" bull market and resulting widening equality gap.

Whether it goes down in a gradient to common people like FIRE folks, or is strictly restricted to the higher classes, someone will position themselves to profit from the Fed policies. I don't see how they can be blamed. Blame the people that create these economic conditions, because they and their friends certainly aren't benevolently leaving profits on the table, they're grabbing everything they can.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#366

Post by [deleted] »

adrianN wrote: post #321
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

You can participate in wildly inflating markets by other means than buying a home. If you have a high income job, invest your money into things that grow with inflation.

[deleted]

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#367

Post by option_greek »

lmm wrote: post #342
option_greek wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> leech the society for the rest of their lives Would these houses even be built if someone is not paying for them. They are not leeching but investing. May be we could call it leeching when they form a cartel and start raising rent prices in unison (which only biggies like black rock can do).

They invest in housing specifically because there's a bunch of tax avoidance loopholes for small-time landlords. There's nothing wrong with honest investing, but tax breaks are for leeches.

If tax breaks are there to be availed, why wouldn't anyone avail them. Does anyone pay more tax than they are legally obligated to ? It doesn't make much sense because the house prices already account for tax breaks, low interest rates and high rents. If one is to voluntarily to reduce rent or pay more tax or take higher interest loans, they would just be making losses and won't be in business for long. Many of these are not individual choices. They are choices of the market as a whole. Of course you can certainly get lawmakers to remove these tax breaks but till then no sane person would pay more tax even if they are progressive leaning in beliefs (not to mention most tax money goes to military spending so its not like paying taxes is even good by default).

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#368

Post by leppr »

drdec wrote: post #173
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

Inflation can be good for young people. If you really think there will be significant inflation, go buy a house, borrow more than you are comfortable with it necessary. Inflation will make the debt easier to deal with in time.

Rich people with significant asset portfolios can borrow more and at lower rates than young people. They have been doing so.

Forcing young people to take more and more debts to buy assets at now over-inflated prices has no happy ending.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#369

Post by [deleted] »

drdec wrote: post #173
uejfiweun wrote: post #45

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

Inflation can be good for young people. If you really think there will be significant inflation, go buy a house, borrow more than you are comfortable with it necessary. Inflation will make the debt easier to deal with in time.

[deleted]

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#370

Post by KaiserPro »

lostmsu wrote: post #47
throwawaygh wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably OP means a job in their profession, not employment generically.

In the current system not everyone is entitled to a job for their profession. People should get used to it.

So you're saying that instead of optimizing for the job I am qualified for and have experience of, I should move to somewhere where the labour market is more subdued, and move to an industry where I have no experience?
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