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Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

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Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#81

Post by mc32 »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #61
vladharbuz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love it if we could get such clear-cut results from the numbers, and just be able to say “this strategy is good, if we do that everything will be fine” (not saying you're saying that), but I really don't think that's the case. Here in Switzerland, we had plenty of lockdowns, followed the scientific wisdom and so on, and we're at 1375 deaths per million. The UK has shifted strategies around a bunch, but they h…

UK is a bad example to choose. They used the highest possible sensitivity setting on the PCR test, to the degree that no meaningful information could be extracted from them. In addition, anyone who died, for any reason, at any time after a positive test, was recorded as a covid death. Even if they died in a car accident months after they had the test. Sources: Covid-19: The problems with case counting: "What is a cas…

Unfortunately the disease has been so politicized health experts can’t have an honest discussion of how to count people who died directly by covid vs died with Covid vs Covid had some effect but not the main cause, etc., and this means it will be years before we understand the disease better.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#82

Post by marginalia_nu »

marvin wrote: post #41
marginalia_nu wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. A lot of people are attempting to use Sweden as some sort of political blunt force instrument to drive home some point, seems to be used to argue both the horrors of lockdowns and the horrors of not locking down. In terms of saving lives, it clearly wasn't the best strategy. In terms of securing a reasonable standard of living, keeping the economy going, keeping mental health effects limited, it was rea…

Are you sure on the economics part of the equation? My impression was that Sweden also had a bigger GDP per capita decline than the other Scandinavian countries. I don't have the data in front of me, though.

It's pretty hard to draw conclusions from looking at the GDP, since the global economy is so entangled (and the Swedish economy is fairly exports-based).

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#83

Post by rob_c »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #66
rob_c wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but comparing flat numbers in a statistically uncorrected way is like saying "Why aren't there any of the population from oap nursing homes in primary schools?". Context is king, no more so than large scale and complex statistical analyses. Sadly almost nobody seems to appreciate this as long as they have a number to argue a point. Nobody corrects for population demographics. Population density. The various inte…

Maybe you could account for the above and provide a counter analysis?

Ironically yes, I could provided enough raw data is actually published and this was part of the formal statement about reproducibility and reliability of report 9.

That alone is probably one of the reasons the above data is now declared in the interests of nation states rather than being openly shared data. Only a few years ago we were making headway in data like this being made publicly available in it's entirety through equivalent to the English ONS. But this is now very inconvenient and frankly some of the data has been deemed "does not exist" so it can't be requested under FOI laws in the UK, despite the infrastructure still being in place and working in collection of this data.

I'm not crying conspiracy I'm just making a statement that lack of transparency sucks the big one when it comes to public policy.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#84

Post by bluejekyll »

kyrra wrote: post #58
NoPie wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't even know why covid has a seasonality. Obviously it has a physical cause but the interplay of all factors is so complicated that no one can really explain why peaks come and go, and at different times in each place.

Best guess I've seen on hit this has to do with how much time people are spending inside due to weather. See the screenshot of covid positivity rates at two different dates. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456... The screenshot is from the NYTimes covid tracker. The guess was that more people were inside in the south the summer when it was hot, and they were running air conditioning. Now that…

In considering areas, are you including vaccination rates? https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st...

CA, OR, and WA have better rates than many places, and the North East is by far the most vaccinated area of the country.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#85

Post by yxhuvud »

paganel wrote: post #17

Netherlands has just imposed lockdown measures even though they're more than 80% vaccinated, I wonder at what point are we going to call this bluff, and I say this as a vaccinated person (including the booster shot).

Are most of the ones that end up in your hospitals and die unvaccinated? If so, vaccination is worth it.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#86

Post by rkk3 »

pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

Here are the results comparing NY Deaths per Million to a "similar" neighbor in the North East [1]

New York 2920

Vermont 620

They are 5 times worse! New York's decision to have a more urban population is completely unjustifiable.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#87

Post by fifilura »

mongol wrote: post #68

I don't think it is interesting to hear "the architect" evaluate his own work. Tegnell has a lot of critics but they don't get the same day of light. I can't refer to an English source but Ivar Arpi's interview with Björn Olsen recently is a good balance to this self-gratulatory message from Tegnell.

Ivar Arpi is a very opinionated far-right columnist. So that will be very biased in the the other direction.

I guess expect the truth to be somewhere in between. But (like proven with other far-right strategies) also don't expect it to be exactly mid-day.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#88

Post by rob_c »

rob_c wrote: post #42
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #5

Halting an economy to the point of economic depression levels (early on) for the sake of people who were already vulnerable (look at the US, lockdowns but people still left the house cause duh...groceries and jobs) was a dumb idea. The government was trying to play god with it's citizens and they couldn't even police simple things like "stay at home" orders. So what was the point in even shutting down everything and…

The point of lockdowns v1 was panick and healthcare supply chain related. Once we knew who was dying from this (May-2021) we should have stopped given the millions who will suffer and people who will probably die from tanking the economies of the developed world. But hey, have to stick the agenda of report9 to the WHO which predicted 200Million+ dead in year1...

I love the regular repeated downvoters who simply won't engage in conversation that there was a hugely better way of handing this that was at best unwillingly ignored and at worst ignored because who is saying it which is just baffling.

I'm not signing the praises of antivax nonsense I want them all put in a box and sent out to sea. But facts are facts, even the inconvenient ones.

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#89

Post by Proven »

pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

> They're 3 to 8 times worse.

LOL!!! What a clueless comment.

> There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices.

Who are you trying to redeem? Sleepy Joe?

Why didn't you compare the number of people inconvenienced, or economics losses, or jobs lost?

Re: Sweden no longer stands out in pandemic, says architect of ‘no lockdown’ policy

#90

Post by thinkingemote »

refurb wrote: post #39
pedrocr wrote: post #3

There are several of these articles trying to redeem Sweden's choices. Here are the results versus their similar neighbors in deaths per million people[1]: Sweden 1478 Denmark 474 Finland 219 Norway 173 They're 3 to 8 times worse. They now do compare favorably to Portugal for example at 1796. When did Portugal have the huge spike in deaths that propelled it in front of Sweden? When it decided not to do lockdowns, eve…

The best part is we’re not even through the Covid situation yet people are calling out winners and losers by looking at Covid deaths only. Let’s revisit this in a decade when folks can add up deaths from Covid (and delayed care for other issues), mental health and economic impact. THAT will be interesting to see.

I'm awaiting the Curtis documentary in 30 years.
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