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Used car market gets even more bizarre

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Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#71
anecdotally; the lower end of the car market doesn't really seem affected. prices for 10+ year old cars that aren't "nice" but are easily reliable with regular maintenance still seem widely available and cheap.

tangentially; I have always seen the premium for a nice car to be a really low value at normal income levels.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#72
post #8
post #2

My car died, needing a new engine, so I was forced to get one in October. I usually only buy used, but prices are so inflated it didn't seem worth the premium. Used 2017-2020 Toyota Rav4's with 30-60k miles were the same price as a new 2021 model, if you could get one. I knew it was bad, but I was shocked of how bad it was. I went to multiple mega dealerships with 500-1000 cars that were all spoken for. Most had 0 ne…

I was in the same boat. I usually avoid buying new but used cars are nearly the same price as new (if you can find a dealer that hasn't done ridiculous 'market adjustments'). So we bought new. We had to buy a car that was just off the delivery truck before the dealership had it inspected. The one we'd looked at two days before was long gone and they expected the one we bought to be sold the next day. My neighbor trad…

Why are dealer market adjustments ridiculous? We live and breathe market forces. No one ever, ever, complains about market adjustments in their favor.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#73

The MSRP for my Tesla Model Y, which I got May 2020 and has 17k miles now, was ~$54k. For kicks I asked Vroom for a quote and they were willing to pay $61.5k in my area... If this weren't my only car, I would probably be taking them up on it.

Carmax was willing to pay a couple grand more than I paid brand new for my 6-speed manual Golf Alltrack (10k miles).

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#74
post #34
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Here's the flip side of that from auto lenders. They are seeing a huge recovery benefit from repossession of vehicle after chargeoff. Lenders portfolios are seeing a net benefit in chargeoffs which has hardly ever happened in recent history. Even more bizarre. https://www.yahoo.com/now/ally-financial-ally-beats-q3-12451...

How can you honestly "charge off" a debt as unlikely to be repaid, when you are quite likely to be repaid? It seems that in the case of a car loan you can usually reposses the collateral, which recently will have held value oreven appreciated in the interim.

Historically, car values underwent significant depreciation over time and loans that went delinquent were for vehicles that were "underwater"- their value was less than the loan. Its pretty much unprecedented for the value of a vehicle to actually increase at any point in time over its life, and how long this anomaly will go on for is very uncertain- another way to put it is that you don't change all of your process and accounting norms because of a temporary (at least as we think for now) supply issue.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#75
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, those are some terrible incentives. I've never had a loan, so maybe I misunderstand the experience. But I'd hate to owe money to somebody that is hoping I fail badly enough that they take my stuff and while keeping my money.

It's in the best interest of a bank not to repossess because there are operational expenses and the bank will get more return if the loan goes to completion.

unless the collateral appreciates past some threshold of expectation

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#77
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps you just get pickier about the jobs you take.

My mechanic does this! He loves to work on classic cars as a passion project and has a bunch of classics in his lot that he's slowly working on, however if you call him now, his voicemail says, "Please note if you are calling to inquire work on a model over 20 years old the waiting list is 5-6 months." He's a great guy- if anyone is in Bay Area and needs a good honest mechanic for foreign or domestic, shout out to Ja…

I tried to get in for an alignment a couple of months ago. I'm used to making an appointment 1 or 2 days out for this sort of thing. All the local shops were booked out over a month. I eventually found a place that had an opening, which ended up being a chain... But I couldn't drive my car for 2 weeks with a bad alignment while I wait for the appointment.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#78

I explored trading in my car a couple months ago and got lowballed by the dealership. I wonder if it's time to try again.

If you have another car you can use then it's a good deal. The problem now is any profits made from selling your car will be eaten up by the inflated price whichever car you are trying to buy.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#79
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My SO's Subaru Outback's engine died recently. It would be $5000 to replace it. Not being able to justify the cost when it had an engine replacement 2 years ago, was already 9 years old, had 160k miles on it, and us not needing a second car, we decided to just sell it. A dealer bought it for $6500 knowing that the engine was shot. I was expecting like half of that with an optimistic estimate.

An engine replaced 2 years ago should absolutely not fail and should be under warranty.

It was likely replaced with another used engine. No mechanic is gonna warranty that for 2 years, and I doubt they'd even warranty a new engine for 2 years unless they rebuilt it themselves. You'd have to take that up with the engine manufacturer / refurbisher or the person who sold it.

Re: Used car market gets even more bizarre

#80
post #18
post #3

My truck is worth more today then when I bought it 4 years ago... Crazy that automobiles are now an appreciating asset...

This is exactly what we've done to the housing market in the US. For some reason, people intuitively get why it's happening with cars, but housing... it's some kind of weird mystery why it's so expensive in so many places.

This has actually been a favorite analogy of YIMBYs for quite some time. "What if the supply of new cars were constrained for some reason?," they'd ask. "What would happen to the market for new cars? Would prices go up or down? Would people who had planned to buy a new car settle for a used one? Would this drive up prices?" Etc, etc.

And of course that's exactly what happened.

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