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Elite Underproduction

troynikov.io

151–160 of 297 posts

Re: Elite Underproduction

#151
post #15

> In the long run, creating more understanding of the physical world is probably more universally valuable to human flourishing than the far more parochial 'make money number go up' Citation needed. Moreover, dedicating resources to finance can be seen as dedicating resources to better dedicate resources. (I upvoted the article since it's interesting stuff)

In the long run, creating more understanding of the physical world is probably more universally valuable to human flourishing than the far more parochial 'make money number go up'

The Economist once commented that the last subatomic particle to have commercial value was the neutron, discovered in 1932.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#152
> Young people going into physics are fundamentally ideologically driven. So why do they lapse?

I’ve got a master’s in engineering physics but now work in data science. Here are some reasons I “lapsed”:

- I would have loved to be a physicist in 1921, but being one in 2021 is very different. I’d be surprised if there is a single leap in understanding (comparable to general relativity or quantum theory) in my lifetime.

- Machine learning on the other hand is making huge progress. It’s a really exciting time to be working in the field.

- Personality-wise I’m not cut out for academia. My friends who are physicists describe it as essentially a feudal system… I don’t like being beholden to some boy’s club.

Also, the idea that my friends who are physicists are the “true elite” and that their contributions are so much more valuable than mine… I remember one of them actually saying that his most significant contribution is probably that he educates a lot of engineers (and yes, he’s a successful tenure track researcher).

Re: Elite Underproduction

#153
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the likelihood of discovering a new phenomena or largely unexplored field of science akin to the discovery of electricity and electrochemistry? There may be a finite amount of works on physics that we can do, or technological niches that we can exploit thanks to discoveries in physics or any relevant field of knowledge. The well of discoveries isn't running dry today, but it may in future generations.

> What is the likelihood of discovering a new phenomena or largely unexplored field of science akin to the discovery of electricity and electrochemistry? We have zero idea how gravity works, how to predict the properties of vast stretches of new materials, if the island of stability is real, what the limits to know propulsion technologies are, what the limits to know fusion technologies are, et cetera . And I’m not e…

Part of this question is whether there is a limit to human cognition that we can leverage to answer increasingly difficult questions. It isn't whether there are still unanswered questions. So this is truly an issue of diminishing resources and exhausted low hanging fruit. One of those resources is human cognitive ability, relative to difficulty of finding new discoveries.

Just as there are true limits to for example pursuing economic growth from burning finite cheap fossil fuels, "growth" in the forms that pertain to the issue at hand... economic, cheap energy consumption, scientific discoveries, human cognitive ability to solve problems..these can all certainly bump up against at least short term limits, and the issue of cost matters greatly in a given time period because even bringing to bear the actual resource we have to develop new science and technology suffers from crowding out if economic "growth" is constrained because of diminishing cheap energy.

This shouldn't be surprising if one conceives of what consistent and steady compound growth even at small rates results in after a relatively short period of time. Inevitable that limits in many inter related areas will be reached...and either a collapse occurs or a long period of low or negative growth happens with all the sort of conflict that entails (competition within scarcity).

Re: Elite Underproduction

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the likelihood of discovering a new phenomena or largely unexplored field of science akin to the discovery of electricity and electrochemistry? We have zero idea how gravity works, how to predict the properties of vast stretches of new materials, if the island of stability is real, what the limits to know propulsion technologies are, what the limits to know fusion technologies are, et cetera . And I’m not e…

Everyone here is missing the point. It's not that physics is running out of questions to ask. It's that the questions are getting increasingly more expensive to answer, and the answers are increasingly less compelling. The low-hanging fruit picked long ago, modern physics produces fewer discoveries that change people's lives in the way that radar, lasers, microwaves, and transistors did, which makes science investmen…

There's always a time gap.

Remember that from the first public microwave demonstrations in 01895 by Bose to the first deployments (as radar in the 01940s) took 45 years; the Amana Radarange brought microwaves into people's homes in 01967, another 27 years later; and microwave ovens didn't really go mainstream until about 01990, another 23 years after that, 95 years after Bose's first public demonstrations. The LASER was first built in 01960 (following numerous physics advances starting in 01917) but the first mass-market laser product was the CD player, introduced in 01982 and surpassing vinyl records in sales for the first time in 01988, 28 years after Maiman's first LASER.

If anything, the time gap seems to be shortening, but the place to look for "discoveries that change people's lives" is not in basic physics research of today but basic and applied physics of a few decades ago turning into common practice more recently. And in that case there are a lot of examples, especially if we go further afield from just physics discoveries:

- modern LED lighting comes from the physics discovery of how to make stable blue LEDs (though, for reasons of market failure, most LED lights still last only 3000 hours instead of 30,000);

- modern cellphones, computers, GPS, broadband, and in particular broadband wi-fi come from numerous physics discoveries that have enabled chip feature sizes to continue reducing over the last 20 years;

- optoelectronics advances are largely a question of physics, and without even counting blue LEDs, better optoelectronics have over the last 20 years dramatically improved TV screens, computer monitors, cellphone screens, fiber-optic communication, Blu-Ray data storage, and LIDAR for, e.g., self-driving cars;

- the mRNA vaccine for covid, while a biological discovery rather than a physics discovery, was designed within a few day after the genome was published, and seems to have both higher efficacy and less side effects than previous kinds of vaccines (though unfortunately for political reasons it wasn't rolled out for another 9 months, during which tens of millions of people died);

- lithium-ion batteries have gone mainstream, enabling a transition to electric cars and wireless power tools;

- better power electronics, resulting from solid-state physics research, have made induction stoves widespread;

- modern solar panels cost a tenth of what they did a decade ago, in significant part due to physics discoveries over the past 20 years, now account for the majority of new power generation capacity being built, and will probably dramatically drop the cost of energy by 02030;

- due to chemistry discoveries, Spectra/Dyneema fishing line is cheap, strong enough to make bulletproof vests, in fact as strong as the strongest steel, and floats on water;

- superhydrophobic coatings, a physics discovery, are going mainstream now.

Radar, microwaves, transistors, and nuclear physics (which you strangely forgot to mention, even though it's fundamental to modern oncology, and produces a significant part of the electrical power in many countries) resulted from WWII. We've had an atypically low level of great-power wars over the last 75 years, which has been great, but it wouldn't be surprising to have another great-power war in the next decade. If that happens, maybe the survivors will be reduced to sticks and stones, but if not, you can bet that they will have spent a lot on physics research.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> overproduction of physics PhDs relative to academic positions available Why are positions researching physics so closely tied to academic positions? We probably don't need too many more physics professors but we sure could use more physics research. Or maybe better physics research. Either way, more/better physics discoveries. That said, our scientific communication channels seem filled to the brink. So maybe we ne…

There are quite a few places like this: * GTRI * Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab * MIT Lincoln Labs * ~All the national labs (NIST, Argonne, etc...) They are still mostly full as I understand. If I was to write an article on what might be improved: We need more translational research (product focused, using existing knowledge) and less academic research. One problem I see is that there just isn't the springboard fr…

Personally I think we are turning discoveries into products pretty fast, at the least faster than any time in history. My thought was that we need more fundamental discoveries (e.g. like understanding gravity or theories that predict and unlock high temperature superconductors), but the people who discover those things needn't be teaching staff.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a concern, but a strong dollar isn't all roses and sunshine either. For one thing, it makes it hard for the American economy to compete in anything but the highest-margin industries. I'm not convinced that the rise of China will be so bad. Boomers and neocons want us to think so, but their "arguments" are mostly just paranoia and sentimentality.

> I'm not convinced that the rise of China will be so bad. Boomers and neocons want us to think so You're not convinced that going from "living in the most economically dominant and militarily powerful country in the world" to "not" is going to somehow not be a painful experience? You can use the "I am not convinced" line for anything. "I am not convinced that being homeless is worse than living in a nice house" but.…

What's the big deal whose GDP is bigger? You think China's going to invade us?

Maybe it's good that other groups of people besides Americans and Europeans can make leading contributions to economic growth, science and technology.

Maybe America's dominance is mainly good for the rich and those who like to invade countries on a whim. I don't care about either of those groups.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> overproduction of physics PhDs relative to academic positions available Why are positions researching physics so closely tied to academic positions? We probably don't need too many more physics professors but we sure could use more physics research. Or maybe better physics research. Either way, more/better physics discoveries. That said, our scientific communication channels seem filled to the brink. So maybe we ne…

Do we need more physics research? I guess it depends a lot on how you define physics, but it seems like outside of possibly better silicon nodes, there isn't a whole lot of low hanging fruit in physics at the moment. When physics does get research funding it gets dropped into building giant machines that, at vast expense, have discovered virtually nothing. It feels like right now most areas of academia are consuming…

It is really hard to predict when research will become valuable- the most valuable US Government grant ever just might turn out to be the NSF/DARPA grants for information science management that funded Brin and Page in their initial work on the PageRank algorithm.

But my favorite example of how research flows into a better world is the Sagnac effect. In 1913, French Physicist Georges Sagnac built a circular interferomter and found interference bands. He thought that this disproved Relativity and showed that an aether existed, but it turned out that German Physicist Max von Laue had predicted the existence of those interference bands under relativity two years earlier, so 10 points for Einstein.

For the next 50 years Sagnac interferometery was a dead end, a minor curiosity in the history of physics. Then in 1963, Macek and Davis at the Sperry Gyroscope Co. figured out how to build this in a laboratory environment with the recently invented lasers. The coherent beam of a laser unlocked the usefulness of the Sagnac effect. Meaning that just another 30-odd years of work by hundreds of people around the world got to a situation where ring-laser and fiber-optic gyros are superior to mechanical gyroscopes and capable of things that mechanical gyros could never do.

So, the Sagnac effect itself was worth nothing, and for a long time afterwards was just something that a few scientists even knew about. But a century later the world depends on it.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#158
post #38
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling it a “step” implies moving in that direction. But the problem in America is that the counter-movement against “anti-intellectualism” is just as anti-intellectual. More people are going to college, but they’re not majoring in math and science. We have an ever expanding ecosystem of non-rigorous *studies fields. These are arguably even less valuable than the cultural norms of Bible-thumping small towns. At leas…

> These are arguably even less valuable than the cultural norms of Bible-thumping small towns. Since you seem to be a fan of intellectual rigor, can you describe the process by which you arrive at the relative worth of (apparently) social science programs vs. small town social behavior? Can that method also tell us whether citrus flavors are more valuable than ballet?

Both social sciences and cultural studies are quite self consciously meant to be applied to understanding and improving society. It’s not the study of dead societies, but our own.

Culture, meanwhile, is the organically developed heuristics and norms of communities.

You can measure the relative worth of these things by looking at the functioning of society on various metrics. Unlike say civil engineers, practitioners of *studies and social sciences have demonstrated little ability to come into a community and make live measurably better for everyone. Arguably, as traditional social norms have been eroded, many communities are less healthy than ever—much more so than you’d expect looking at just the economic numbers. Millennials as a generation are the richest ever, yet seem profoundly unhappy and unsatisfied.

Re: Elite Underproduction

#159
post #21

"In my line of work I meet plenty of lapsed physicists. These are people with physics degrees, even physics Ph.D's, who don't do physics. Instead they're usually some sort of programmer, or occasionally some version of a quant." I now PhDs that became High School teachers and they were some of the most gifted. I know PhDs that wait tables to make ends meet. I think if the guy has fundamentally not understood what Pet…

As somebody who's about to finish a CS dissertation, I sometimes think the best way to do CS research is to get a somewhat interesting software engineering job that allows for a 4-day week and to do research as a side project. Most likely, this gives one more research time than staying in academia (with the exception of the first Post Doc, perhaps). Edit: This works for most of CS, but not for most of Physics, I assu…

Could work for alot of computational-x fields.

Historically, i tried to get software dev jobs that maximized my free time to do whatever i what on the side (also helped that i've been working remotely for ~6 years).

Re: Elite Underproduction

#160
Pay writers better and the whole problem goes away. The fundamental problem is history is written by the losers and the journalists are upset all their friends are making bank.
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