Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Gates predicts software revolution

mis-asia.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–16 of 16 posts

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#11

Post by marvin »

mattmaroon wrote: post #7
ryanwaggoner wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologi…

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

"Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#12

Post by ks »

mattmaroon wrote: post #7
ryanwaggoner wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologi…

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

I remember reading articles in the 80s saying just that... I'm also looking forward to booking a hotel in the moon colony in a couple of years.

It's not that it is impossible. We could have flying cars and moon tourists any time we want, but the cost is much greater than the benefits.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#13

Post by [deleted] »

marvin wrote: post #11
mattmaroon wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

"Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.

[deleted]

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#14

Post by mattmaroon »

marvin wrote: post #11
mattmaroon wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

"Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.

That was exactly my point. We could, but we won't and we probably won't in another 50 years. Technology is held back by all sorts of stuff.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#15

Post by mattmaroon »

azharcs wrote: post #10
mattmaroon wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.

Are they? I mean, they're giving you more choice for sure, but I don't see any PCs sold without them. People still make their decisions largely based on OS.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#16

Post by sown »

mattmaroon wrote: post #7
ryanwaggoner wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologi…

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

Well, they definitely underestimated how powerful and cheap computers would be. No one from that era saw the biotech revolution coming. I guess that's long-term enough?
Post reply on HN