Gates predicts software revolution

#1

Post by bootload » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 1:17 AM UTC

Gates predicts software revolution
mis-asia.com

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#2

Post by Hutzpah » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 1:21 AM UTC

yeah, the chokehold of the monopoly fades away... off course there is a surge in innovation.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#3

Post by mattmaroon » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 1:47 AM UTC

Whenever technologists start dreaming of the future, they end up overestimating the pace of changes. They think too much in terms of what is possible and too little of the many forces of the market and government that hold them back.

I have little doubt that if we were building a brand new country from scratch with a huge budget, we'd all have cars that drive themselves. But, because some percentage of the population couldn't afford them in our current reality, it's greatly complicated by the fact that not all cars would be self-driven. So rather than having roads and central control designed to make computerized cars safe, which we could probably already do, we have to design ones that can drive down a 50 year old expressway full of human-driven cars.

That's how it works with most technologies. Legacy systems and things being good enough the way they are prevent the sort of rapid progress technologists always predict.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#4

Post by kajecounterhack » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 2:21 AM UTC

It doesn't take Bill Gates to say things will move forward.

Companies will continue to find things people want, and people will continue to buy things they want. The end. Move on, nothing to see here.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#5

Post by ryanwaggoner » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 5:55 AM UTC

mattmaroon wrote: post #3

Whenever technologists start dreaming of the future, they end up overestimating the pace of changes. They think too much in terms of what is possible and too little of the many forces of the market and government that hold them back. I have little doubt that if we were building a brand new country from scratch with a huge budget, we'd all have cars that drive themselves. But, because some percentage of the population…

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term.

The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologies, and so on. However, this exponential trend is difficult to grasp from our perspective today, so futurists tend to extrapolate out the current pace of change into the future (along with a healthy dose of optimism), when in reality, change is accelerating.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#6

Post by rainface » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 7:18 AM UTC

Isn't it about time Gates restrains himself from publicizing predictions?

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#7

Post by mattmaroon » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 8:12 AM UTC

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #5

mattmaroon wrote: post #3

Whenever technologists start dreaming of the future, they end up overestimating the pace of changes. They think too much in terms of what is possible and too little of the many forces of the market and government that hold them back. I have little doubt that if we were building a brand new country from scratch with a huge budget, we'd all have cars that drive themselves. But, because some percentage of the population…

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologi…

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#8

Post by Anon84 » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 9:31 AM UTC

Isn't this roughly what he's been saying since his 1999 book?

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#9

Post by extension » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 9:42 AM UTC

Bill Gates predicts sun will rise tomorrow

with an embedded touch screen

Re: Gates predicts software revolution

#10

Post by azharcs » Sun, Aug 31, 2008, 9:58 AM UTC

mattmaroon wrote: post #7

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologi…

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.