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The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

economist.com

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Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#21

Post by WalterGR »

gravyjones wrote: post #20
WalterGR wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's never pleasant to have one's comments downvoted. But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality. Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointm…

For the CDC report you can read their article https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e1.htm "The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. " Or better yet, just glance their infographic: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/…

Thanks for the info on what you meant by money changing hands.

"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated."

Yep. Nobody is claiming that number is zero.

The CDC report also notes "NSSP found that emergency department (ED) visits declined 42% during the early COVID-19 pandemic... with the steepest decreases in persons aged ≤14 years, females, and the Northeast."

People aged ≤14 years just don't account for a large percentage of ER deaths.

Or better yet, just glance their infographic:

That infographic is confusing. While it says "A decline in visits for serious conditions might result in complications or death" that is not a statement about the 42% number. ER visits declined that much overall. (My guess based on the "might result in complications or death" phrasing is that it's supposed to be a warning for the general public to not skip the ER for serious conditions.)

Re. myocardial infarction, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234 reports an increase of approximately 30,000 deaths in the US in 2020 due to heart disease.

Skimming https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-e... I don't see if they take into account known numbers such as that one. It does note

"Many people with treatable medical conditions have died because they did not receive appropriate health care. Conversely, other people have survived who, were it not for the behavioural changes induced by covid-19, would have died from causes like influenza, air pollution or car accidents."

What statistics would give you more confidence in excess death counts?

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#23

Post by vibrato2 »

boloust wrote: post #4
fouadf wrote: post #2

I doubt that the official number of 5m is accurate anyway, it's probably much less. My grandma passed away last year, cause of death was registered as covid even though we all knew that it wasn't. I've heard about many similar to stories similar to mine I've also heard that hospitals can make money out of it.

This article is using excess deaths. What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths? Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.

Baby boomers hitting their life expectancy

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#24

Post by Kim_Bruning »

ekianjo wrote: post #7
skinnymuch wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the excess deaths compared to other times?

> What about the excess deaths compared to other times? So a single factor (COVID) is responsible for the excess death? That's simplification at best, because in reality nothing is ever a single-variable problem.

Hmm, try looking at as a computation that takes the delta with a computation based on a control period.

(unpacking: It actually measures the delta with a predicted trend. The trend calculation projects what current deaths should be, based on the situation in the past - which you can see as the control period. It's not perfect, but this should, reasonably, exclude most other factors fairly well. )

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#25

Post by pbak »

gravyjones wrote: post #15
dragonwriter wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

Yes you are probably right. It's because of covid or the perception and response to covid. I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man su…

My elderly mother proposed in April 2020 that this crisis would end when everything not bolted firmly to the floor would finish being stolen.

I laughed with her then. I don't anymore.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#26

Post by dragonwriter »

native_samples wrote: post #19
dragonwriter wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.

Specifically, it's an effect of mistaken predictions about COVID. COVID is still with us and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals now, unfortunately, the backlog isn't clearable except by people dying whilst waiting for treatment (in the UK at least).

> Specifically, it's an effect of mistaken predictions about COVID

No, its not. It’s an effect of the perception that hospitals provide an elevated risk of catching COVID plus some desire to avoid hospitalization given the COVID control measures in hospitals. (There's also some effect that isn't avoidance but some services actually cancelled at hospitals due to actual or anticipated COVID caseload or as part of control measures.)

> COVID is still with us

True.

> and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals

No, they haven't, though that's dropped from the peak and widespread use and awareness of telehealth services (which stabilized at a nearly 40× the pre-pandemic utilization rate) may mean that less of that avoidance of hospitals and other medical facilities is avoidance of medical services entirely.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#27

Post by boloust »

gravyjones wrote: post #12
joshuamorton wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't. You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the…

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

Again, a comparison to Oceania would be helpful here. ER presentations declined by a similar proportion there, but did not see the excess deaths.

Oceania largely managed to contain the virus until broad vaccination coverage was achieved in vulnerable populations. That would seem to be the most straightforward explanation for the lack of excess deaths in Oceania.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#28

Post by gravyjones »

pbak wrote: post #25
gravyjones wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes you are probably right. It's because of covid or the perception and response to covid. I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man su…

My elderly mother proposed in April 2020 that this crisis would end when everything not bolted firmly to the floor would finish being stolen. I laughed with her then. I don't anymore.

Haha the older I get, the more I appreciate old people. Especially the snarky ones. We are all going to be old someday, I hope I'm the best type of old like your mother. I really do.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#29

Post by gravyjones »

boloust wrote: post #27
gravyjones wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im…

Again, a comparison to Oceania would be helpful here. ER presentations declined by a similar proportion there, but did not see the excess deaths. Oceania largely managed to contain the virus until broad vaccination coverage was achieved in vulnerable populations. That would seem to be the most straightforward explanation for the lack of excess deaths in Oceania.

Ok but when you are comparing USA with Oceania, arent there quite a lot of factors to consider? For example, it is established that bmi plays a factor in covid deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm

Is the BMI of USA the same as all of Oceania? What other factors are in play as well? Probably a lot I would imagine.

Re: The number of people who have died from Covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m

#30

Post by gravyjones »

WalterGR wrote: post #21
gravyjones wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the CDC report you can read their article https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e1.htm "The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. " Or better yet, just glance their infographic: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/…

Thanks for the info on what you meant by money changing hands. "The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated." Yep. Nobody is claiming that number is zero. The CDC report also notes "NSSP found that emergency department (ED) v…

Well heres another one. massive increase in drug overdoses during pandemic: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drug-overdose-deaths-2020-coron...
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