Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt • Hacker News Board

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#551

Post by r00fus » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #445

delfinom wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the end game of the baby boomers and economy really. Collectively everyone is hoarding onto property for their nest egg, investment funds get piles of their money from 401ks and pensions as well to invest into areas like real estate. A large chunk of retirement is now predicated on maintaining or increasing property values. The fed is now so fucked it can't even raise rates without immediately causing propert…

The solution is simple. Raise rates and let asset prices normalize, regardless of the consequences. There will be pain in the short term, but you're creating opportunity for future generations. Policy right now is all about pulling prosperity from the future into the present. IE higher valuation multiples today enrich current asset holders, but leave little growth for future asset holders It used to be that the Fed w…

> It used to be that the Fed was not too focused on asset valuations, and actually drove policy on the basis of their mandates. Unfortunately they're too cowardly to do that anymore.

Could it be that they're essentially captured by the likes of Blackrock, etc. I mean, it's been this way for a while, but it's getting to where government is openly a tool for the corporations without voter involvement.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#552

Post by mercutio2 » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:32 PM UTC

pvarangot wrote: post #526

noahtallen wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID, defund the police, rising crime, suburbs more attractive with work from home, etc. If there are any cities for which this is true, it’s cities like Seattle and Portland. Theoretically, they are not desirable to live in because of COVID, very high crime rates, not idea for working from home, huge public safety problems, etc. But rent is higher than it has ever been.

San Francisco, Seattle and Portland are great cities. Austin is a great city. Don't believe what the conservative media wants you to believe about SF or what the liberal media wants to make you believe about Austin. Those cities are used as an "example" of what the democrats/republicans "will do with the country" if they win national elections. It's been going on for like 30 years and if like 1% of what they said was…

I generally agree with your points!

Except the reason people in my social circle would never move to Austin isn’t about guns, it’s about women’s access to quality reproductive care, including abortion.

And I don’t think the democrats are exaggerating the extent to which that is not an option in Texas.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#553

Post by Kkoala » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:33 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #545

wolverine876 wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Fed has essentially trapped us in a system where the likes of blackrock get access to essentially free Fed printing press money right of the rollers that they then use to buy up real assets at inflated prices, which only drives up the inflation that thereby also drives up the value of previous purchases at near zero rate interest. It's a trendy thing to say, especially in certain political circles, but could yo…

> could you substantiate it with something from a serious, non-partisan economist? The fact that printed money is fueling the housing market does not require an economist to see; it is obvious from comparing two simple observations: (1) Americans expect to be able to get 30 year mortgages at rates around 3%. (2) Americans expect to be able to invest their retirement savings in stocks and bonds with a long term rate o…

#1 is less risky, since mortgages have to be collateralized. #1 is also less volatile

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#554

Post by HarryHirsch » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:36 PM UTC

rsj_hn wrote: post #381

HarryHirsch wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price for housing has gone up substantially in the last 20 years, housing takes up a greater share of peoples incomes than it did in the past, and there is no reason for it. We wouldn't tolerate the price of food going up by the same percentage.

> The price for housing has gone up substantially in the last 20 years This is the result of supply and demand. How does demand for housing increase? Falling mortgage, downpayment assistance programs, government guaranteed loans. That increases demand. And housing is also larger than 20 years ago. > We wouldn't tolerate the price of food going up by the same percentage. This is just silly. It is not something you "to…

How does demand for housing increase? Falling mortgage, downpayment assistance programs, government guaranteed loans.

Also growing population and people moving to areas where the jobs are. Most recently: pandemic refugees from NYC and California settling in adjacent areas. When demand changes for a good with inelastic supply you see large excursions in price.

And housing is also larger than 20 years ago.

That's a problem right there. Everyone needs a roof over the head. Some people would like a palace. There is not enough entry-level housing being built to keep up with demand, meanwhile the existing stock has reached the end of its serviceable life. There's a good chunk of 70's construction which has deteriorated to a point that it needs rebuilding. The shortage at the low end causes high rents for those who can least afford it.

Food prices also rise when demand increases.

Food prices mostly rise in response to missing supply, either because the harvest fails and the government can't secure imports or because of political upheavals. Either way, it's a political problem, food riots are what starts revolutions. and food price instability is a hallmark of banana republics.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#555

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:40 PM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #539

frankfrankfrank wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I wish people understood more of what these "institutional investors" are doing. The Fed has essentially trapped us in a system where the likes of blackrock get access to essentially free Fed printing press money right of the rollers that they then use to buy up real assets at inflated prices, which only drives up the inflation that thereby also drives up the value of previous purchases at near zero rate int…

> The Fed has essentially trapped us in a system where the likes of blackrock get access to essentially free Fed printing press money right of the rollers that they then use to buy up real assets at inflated prices, which only drives up the inflation that thereby also drives up the value of previous purchases at near zero rate interest. It's a trendy thing to say, especially in certain political circles, but could yo…

"Inflation" isn't the right technical term, and I'm skeptical of the more conspiratorial implications, but the Federal Reserve is pretty open about the fact that it buys a lot of mortgage debt and mortgage rates are low because of it. See for example https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0826.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#556

Post by JeremyNT » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

cwkoss wrote: post #384

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

Every person or corporation that owns more than one residential dwelling should pay increased property taxes based on the number of residential dwellings they own. This is an easy problem to legislate away, our politicians are just too cowardly to decommodify housing.

That's a good stick, yep.

They could also add in a carrot, to reduce capital gains on sale of non-primary residences.

There are too many incentives currently to hoard properties like the damn monopoly man, so you need to start clawing away at them. Taxing the eventual sale just encourages people to not ever sell, so tax them for hoarding directly.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#557

Post by davidw » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:53 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #525

davidw wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession - and some places like California have probably been underbuilding for decades. Median prices are still pretty low there, though: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX... It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more moun…

> Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession That was my original point in another thread (under building during the great recession + an exodus of building talent). > It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicatin…

Demand certainly contributes to rising prices if supply lags. Houston does a much better job than other places of adding supply, and part of that is their 'zoning-lite' approach.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#558

Post by wolverine876 » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 10:56 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #545

wolverine876 wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Fed has essentially trapped us in a system where the likes of blackrock get access to essentially free Fed printing press money right of the rollers that they then use to buy up real assets at inflated prices, which only drives up the inflation that thereby also drives up the value of previous purchases at near zero rate interest. It's a trendy thing to say, especially in certain political circles, but could yo…

> could you substantiate it with something from a serious, non-partisan economist? The fact that printed money is fueling the housing market does not require an economist to see; it is obvious from comparing two simple observations: (1) Americans expect to be able to get 30 year mortgages at rates around 3%. (2) Americans expect to be able to invest their retirement savings in stocks and bonds with a long term rate o…

> does not require an economist to see

IME, people have lots of theories that look good to amateurs. Look at physics, as a striking example of how wrong amateurs can be for thousands of years.

Anyway, you aren't required to do research for me, but some person on the Internet writing economic theory is not persuasive to me. Oh well.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#559

Post by scrumbledober » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 11:02 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #516

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

> home owners will benefit It's going to hurt home owners, too - when the valuation of the house goes up, so do the taxes. It won't be long before the tax burden is so high, the only option homeowners will have is to sell (and then pay even more taxes on the gains on the house sale) and rent it back from Blackrock.

Not in California. See Prop 13

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#560

Post by dan_quixote » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 11:08 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #255

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I say this as someone who has gained significant wealth from personal real estate - Tax it more. It's crazy to incentivize personal real estate as an investment.