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Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

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511–520 of 634 posts

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#511
post #77

I hope this bubble bursts. In less than 3 years the rent in our working class city went up 45%. Not to mention the absurd qualifications one needs to rent. 4 times the income to rent, very good credit and background checks. This is not sustainable for working class people.

Where ?

A big part of why Los Angeles is a living hell for most people is due to rapid recent increases in rent.

LA is this disgusting place where a very very small number of people are doing exceptionally well, and almost everyone is either homeless or half a paycheck away from that.

The only saving grace is these obscene rent increases appear to be isolated to a few select markets. In most of America you haven’t seen anything like the rent inflation normal in Los Angeles. If possible, consider moving. These issues have come about over the last 30 years, they won’t be fixed in the next three.

I moved out of LA my cost of living dropped by about 30% overnight, and it was much easier to meet nice people. I’ve long considered writing a book about just how much moving to a different city can fix your life. Most behavior is ultimately economic, if you and no one you know can get their lives together and move out, none well.

In LA this spirals into a nasty entitlement complex, leading to various yucky situations better avoided.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#512

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

I think you are mistakenly assuming they will be successful selling 7000 houses for $400,000 each.

In a world where the likes of blackrock are up to their eyeballs in bad Chinese real estate deals already that seems unlikely.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#513
post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zillow has listed a staggering 93% of the hundreds of Phoenix homes it owns at a loss [1] 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/zillow-offers-ibuyer-sell-ph...

“Listed”, not sold. Homes typically go for well over listing

it depends on the market. This is definitely true in the Bay Area right now, but not true in the city where I live.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#514

According to their call tonight they say they are out of that business permanently. I wonder if they plan on pivoting it to something less speculative? FWIW, I'd love a system where you could "sell" a home to a broker and "buy" one without the musical chairs game of contingency offers, etc. I think there's real value in a space that completes the sale of properties based on some window of expected return for a proper…

I'm not sure what you look for is realistic. As a seller, I'd surely prefer to avoid all those contingencies, inspections, etc. - just give me the money, take the property and be done with it! As a buyer, though, I surely want something that I pay multiples of my annual income for to be thoroughly inspected, and be absolutely sure everything is ok (or at least if something is not OK I know it and it's priced in). Risking this kind of money is not something I could afford. I'm not sure anybody - maybe except US federal government - could afford risks of this magnitude without covering oneself somehow. So there would be a process. You could pay somebody to undergo this process instead of yourself, but I don't think you could get rid of it entirely.

That said, intermediaries like you describe exist, afaik. E.g. Flyhomes do something like that.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#515
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. And there's less homelessness, because people can more easily afford homes. Not to say that it's necessarily a model to follow: there's a lot of sprawl involved. Just saying that "abundant housing has some real benefits".

> and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. Compared to NYC and SF? Sure. Compared to everywhere else, no: https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/06/23/rents-and-home-... https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/... But then that's just saying you'll find more affordable housing in cities that people don't want to live in, which would then go along with your point. > Not to say that…

Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession - and some places like California have probably been underbuilding for decades.

Median prices are still pretty low there, though: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX...

It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicating that someone wants to live there.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#516

Former real estate finance professional, here. If you were hoping this was a sign of the real estate market falling and perhaps its your chance to get a bargain, think again. > The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Institutional investors (Blackstone, Blackrock, Colony, et al) will be being in bulk,…

> home owners will benefit

It's going to hurt home owners, too - when the valuation of the house goes up, so do the taxes. It won't be long before the tax burden is so high, the only option homeowners will have is to sell (and then pay even more taxes on the gains on the house sale) and rent it back from Blackrock.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#517
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People use all kinds of accounting tricks to convince themselves that some purchase or other makes financial sense. Trading in their perfectly good 2 year old car for a brand new one, buying on finance when they could buy a cheaper one outright. I'm sceptical that it ever pays off that way.

It's not an accounting trick; it's historically low rates. At the beginning of 2021 would you rather have paid 350k cash for a house or taken a 30 year mortgage and invested the remaining 80% (after a 20% down payment) into the sp500? Your house might be up around 10-25% depending on the market making your 20% stake worth more. and your 280k cost-basis that you invested would be worth 350k. You'd have already earned…

If instead of buying the house cash I put it all into bitcoin at the begining of the year I'd now have enough to pay off the mortgage, the early repayment fee and have change to spare.

This being the utter fucking fallacy of hypothesising with the benefit of perfect information.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#519
post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No ban, just huge property taxes for non-primary residences.

Since institutional owners like this make up a tiny percentage of ownership, your solution would have a huge impact on small landlords, which would be passed along to the tenants. Basically you're asking renters to pay for this behavior...

"A" government[1] could telegraph that major (as major as is necessary) policy changes are coming that will affect SFH investors in a detrimental way, and that it would be in their best interests to prepare accordingly.

If this does not happen, I suspect Mother Nature will eventually intervene, and that usually doesn't go well for anyone.

[1] I do not presume that any arbitrary Western government is actually capable of this in the real world as it relies on many prerequisites, some of them policy, some of them psychological/ethical.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was the approach that made the most sense to me. Purchase a house where you can afford the 15-year fixed mortgage, but take out the 30-year fixed mortgage. Pay it off as if it were the 15-year fixed (ensure that your loan has no penalties for prepayment or extra payments, and that 100% of extra payments go toward the principal). If things go smoothly for you, you’ll pay a marginal amount of additional interest (…

No reason to make principal-only payments with interest rates so far below the avg. stock market return. Obviously if a bond paying 3% would be interesting to you, pay the mortgage off first before buying the bond.

I agree that produces a better expected return, however the downside-risk from a bad outcome is worse for me than the expected upside gain.

Essentially, I don't expect my overall happiness and satisfaction to be linearly correlated with my finances, and I expect that non-linearity to be such that I'd rather be more risk-averse in such a way that I have to give up some of the potential gain.

If there were a world where I could _guarantee_ the avg. stock market return, then I'd of course take that offer, but sadly such guaranteed returns only exist in the form of scams and ponzi schemes.

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