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Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

home.treasury.gov

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Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#601
post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings and bring down the rest of the market. It’s not as direct, but I’m less worried about counterparty risk. I wrote up my thesis here: https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

>I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings I doubt a run on tether would even cause a 50% drop in BTC price. Hope your account doesn't blow up when Bitcoin inevitably reaches 1 million per coin ;)

50% price fluctuations are normal in bitcoin. 31273 on 26 Aug, 65701 on 20 Oct.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No there won’t be a big long term correction from Tether because there are dozens of other stable coins now for people to temporarily sell into. There’s also the ability to short crypto and buy puts on crypto. All of that provides ways for speculators, investors, middle class savers, and early technology adopters to stay in the game. You’re like a doomsday predictor that will never see a doomsday happen. No real valu…

The Quito stock exchange consists of over 300 companies in farming, forestry, power generation, medical care etc. They have physical and human capital and earn profits from their paying customers, whether or not people want to buy stocks which offer them a share of this profit The AAVE platform consists of individuals lending recently printed tokens to each other to buy other recently printed tokens in what is essent…

The difference is momentum and trust. Crypto is underlined by trust. Permissionless trust and cross-border trust. Either people don’t trust the Quito stock exchange to return all of the money back to shareholders or they don’t see their money going up in value there. So people don’t give them their money.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#603
post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've totally missed and mischaracterized the point of the article. That wildcat banks failed was never in dispute. They failed, by definition. As the monetary historian notes, wildcat banks were very rare, and the cause of wildcat banking was not, as alleged, lack of centralized regulatory gatekeeping: the failures were generally directly due to regulatory intervention that exacerbated risk, like prohibitions on ba…

> They failed, by definition That's not what "by definition" means... This article is nonsense, and typical of intellectually dishonest right-wingers. They always claim that it was actually regulation the whole time that caused the problems! Wow! Yet we can look at the regulations the author cites, and what were ultimately the reasons for the end of wildcat banks, and see those were obviously not the cause. Regardles…

By definition, a wildcat bank failed, or came close to it:

https://www.britannica.com/topic/wildcat-bank

>>wildcat bank, unsound bank chartered under state law during the period of uncontrolled state banking (1816–63) in the United States. Such banks distributed nearly worthless currency backed by questionable security (e.g., mortgages, bonds) and were located in inaccessible areas to discourage note redemption.

As for your criticism: no, the author meticulously details the ways in which regulatory restrictions led to most of the bank failures associated with wildcat banks, and contrasts it with the experience of 19th century British North America, i.e. Canada, and Scotland, which lacked those same restrictions.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#604
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree! If there was no way for ppl playing in crypto to get their hands on bonafide fiat currency, I don't think anybody would really care about crypto. Remember the Gemini exchange adds looking for qualified investors? Why? because such people have US dollars, which is what Gemini wants to bank.

Right now that's the case but there's no guarantee any currency will always remain the one of choice. And BTC doesn't need exchanges, but of course it does help, especially in the early stages.

Are we still in 'the early stages?' We seem to always be in the early stages of blockchain/bitcoin.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#605

It may not be immediately obvious that all banks run their own "stablecoin": LD: "Ledger Dollars". How do "internal bank ledger dollars" differ from stablecoins? As well, very many countries of the world "peg" their currency to the USD. From https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency-peg.asp : > Countries will experience a particular set of problems when a currency is pegged at an overly low exchange rate. On the…

(Meanwhile, does continue to advise persons to invest diversifiedly and non-volatilely in order to meet or exceed CPI (Consumer Price Inflation))

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've totally missed and mischaracterized the point of the article. That wildcat banks failed was never in dispute. They failed, by definition. As the monetary historian notes, wildcat banks were very rare, and the cause of wildcat banking was not, as alleged, lack of centralized regulatory gatekeeping: the failures were generally directly due to regulatory intervention that exacerbated risk, like prohibitions on ba…

I mean it's published by the Cato Institute. Regulatory gatekeeping is the root cause of all problems. Joking aside, I didn't see the prohibition on branching specifically called out, other than to say that Scotland (which did allow it) did not see banknote discounting, and that ultimately it was the 1864 National Banking act which finally ended the practice. The most common thread it seemed to be were that banks hel…

Where it explains the harm done by the prohibitions on branching:

>>Thanks to the combination of a large country, poor (though rapidly improving) transportation infrastructure, and unit banking, when notes traveled any substantial distance from their source, getting them redeemed could be quite costly. In smaller nations, and especially those, like Scotland, where banks were allowed to branch nationwide, banknote discounts were unknown: the fact that there were many different banks of issue, with varying assets, didn't prevent such nations from having "uniform" banknote currencies. Even Canada, which was geographically as large as the United States, but much less populous and with a far less developed internal transportation system, managed (with the help of several private clearinghouses) to achieve a uniform currency, based on the notes of several dozen commercial banks, by the early 1890s.[4]

>>Had it not been for unit banking, the United States might well have had a uniform state banknote currency before the Civil War, thanks to its by then impressive railroad network. Even with unit banking, it came a lot closer than most people realize. Despite already having had over a hundred banks of issue at the time, with hardly any branches, New England managed, with the help of the Suffolk System—an early, Boston-based banknote clearinghouse—to achieve a uniform currency as early as 1824.

But yes, the most harmful restrictions were those barring banks that didn't hold the state-mandated reserves, which made banks, and the money supply in general, susceptible to changes in public finances, and made those changes systemic in nature, since all banks were affected in the same way, and at the same, by a change in the availability and value of the statutory reserve assets.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#607
post #420
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After that hedge fund issued a $1M reward on Tether backing I did some more investigation and the thing I realized is that 1) Tether is inherently backed by BS and 2) crafting any sort of Tether short is near impossible because everyone in the game - Tether, the exchanges, etc. - will all be against you if you're winning in the short. There's that scene in "The Big Short" where Mark Baum and crew know the subprime bo…

I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings and bring down the rest of the market. It’s not as direct, but I’m less worried about counterparty risk. I wrote up my thesis here: https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

Really interesting article. Thanks for sharing. I was going to ask which tickers you short so I could continue learning, but I see it's RIOT and MARA. Just curious: is it intentional not to mention them in the article?

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#608
post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all the players have an incentive in it's continued existence Even retail investors? Why do they hold a stablecoin that has any risk at all, with no upside? What is the retail investor’s end game here?

Large yields on stablecoins, inability to bank on KYC exchanges, desire to gamble on leveraged exchanges like Binance. In each case no one believes it will collapse while they hold.

Can you elaborate on how a stablecoin gives the holder any yields? I thought the whole idea is that it doesn’t appreciate or depreciate.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The popular conception of the so-called free banking era, and the cause and prevalence of wildcat banking, is wrong. https://www.alt-m.org/2021/07/06/the-fable-of-the-cats/

You do realize that the publisher of this is very far from a neutral party here, right?

I assume you're referring to the author, not publisher, since the credibility of the publisher of the article is irrelevant to the content of the article. An economist coming to a conclusion that is different from the establishment's, or yours, doesn't make them not neutral. I don't know of any conflicts of interest they have that would make them not neutral.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings I doubt a run on tether would even cause a 50% drop in BTC price. Hope your account doesn't blow up when Bitcoin inevitably reaches 1 million per coin ;)

Either markets work or they don't. Sure, in the short term, unregulated markets can be manipulated. But Tether's been around more than seven years, more than enough time for the "smart money" to profit by obliterating them. You can sell Tether on Coinbase for U.S. Dollar deposits to your bank account. The fact that Tether maintains its 1:1 peg to the dollar is a signal that maybe all the smart guys who have been conf…

You are deluded if you think tether has 70bn liquid assets in case there is a run.

The question of a collapse is when not if.

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