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Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

johncoogan.com

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Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could cut costs and just try to be good at being a better Facebook. I know that is heresy in the stock world.

I think they effectively cannot. There would be a shareholder's revolt.

Which doesn't matter as Zuckerberg controls too many voting shares. Investors spent money while not receiving voting power ...

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#92
post #9

As I was watching their 'keynote' I couldn't help but wonder about the many companies that took a similar approach and then died. Spending a ton of money on something doesn't make it automatically successful. [1] In fact, history has shown the opposite to be true. Take Facebook itself for example, it succeeded, not because it poured Billions into building its social network. Mark built something small, for a small ma…

Is that not pretty much the story of Oculus so far? There are 2 million oculus quest 2 devices out there now and they're getting to the point where they have a monopoly in VR

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a ton of money and there's a ton of money. Facebook has a ton of money to spend. Whether they succeed or fail is anybody's guess but this kind of investment can't help but move the needle on AR/VR tech.

Not necessarily so if it’s all closed sourced proprietary tech. For example I don’t think Newton had accelerated pda tech probably the opposite

Even closed source proprietary tech moves the industry forward. Engineers switch companies. Patents are filed. Competitors reverse engineer products. The knowledge diffusion is slower than with open source but it does happen eventually.

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#94

I really hope he isn’t successful.

Why? Even if you don't take part, it would arguably create advantages for many, especially those in the developing world.

Can you expand on what those "advantages" are exactly? You've mentioned them twice on this thread now. How can an electricity dependent VR toy benefit someone in poor and likely cramped living conditions?

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#95

To me, this is just a particularly garish example of what a lot of tech seems like these days: very expensive solution in search of a problem.

I don't know. Sometimes there are really visionaries out there who just are thinking bigger than you or I. Like I certainly didn't think the iPhone would be nearly as successful as it is, or TikTok, or Minecraft. Facebook has a lot of resources, I think they might be able to make this work and be a real world-changer.

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#97
post #92
post #9

As I was watching their 'keynote' I couldn't help but wonder about the many companies that took a similar approach and then died. Spending a ton of money on something doesn't make it automatically successful. [1] In fact, history has shown the opposite to be true. Take Facebook itself for example, it succeeded, not because it poured Billions into building its social network. Mark built something small, for a small ma…

Is that not pretty much the story of Oculus so far? There are 2 million oculus quest 2 devices out there now and they're getting to the point where they have a monopoly in VR

Didn't Oculus "succeed" already before FB bought it and invested huge amounts of extra money?

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#98
For if you were God and in the sense that you knew everything and you were completely transparent to yourself through and through. You would be bored. Because, if looking at it from another way, we push technology to its furthest possible development, and we had instead of a dial telephone on one’s desk a more complex system of buttons. And one touch beep, would give you anything you wanted. Aladdin’s lamp. You would eventually have to introduce a button labeled surprise.

https://alanwatts.org/1-2-3-mythology-of-hinduism-pt-1/

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#99
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Facebook needs to find a company like Skype to buy for $8.5B

They did so with Instagram and Whatsapp and those are arguably their most successful product today.

I'm not sure what good acquisitions by FB has to do with this conversation. The point was MS wasted billions of dollars.

Re: Why Facebook is spending billions on the metaverse

#100
post #51
post #9

As I was watching their 'keynote' I couldn't help but wonder about the many companies that took a similar approach and then died. Spending a ton of money on something doesn't make it automatically successful. [1] In fact, history has shown the opposite to be true. Take Facebook itself for example, it succeeded, not because it poured Billions into building its social network. Mark built something small, for a small ma…

If you haven't seen it yet, you might appreciate this slide deck about how organizations are like slime mold. Slide 57 main image "0.60=0.95^10", text "And thanks to that non-linearity, even a small decline in individual likelihood [of success] leads to a much lower overall decline in the likelihood of success." https://komoroske.com/slime-mold/

I disagree that slime-ball force is inescapable.

I think our industry has a huge "boulder" - we often work on useless software that is far too removed from real world applications, which causes us to lose our passion.

When you have 50 engineers maintaining a boring piece of crap software which can be maintained by 5 engineers, you will start noticing the productivity going down. Engineers who used to be very productive will slow down to meet the low expectations.

Brainstorming a way to avoid this problem:

- working on things we're passionate about with real-world impact

- having a bunch of small organizations with small number of employees (maybe Mark should break down facebook into 50 smaller companies)

- stop creating redundant jobs; if things are not going well, adding 100 people to a project isn't going to fix the delayed project

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