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Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

economist.com

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Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#101

Post by xiaoma »

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

"This has happened many times through history. It's happening in Japan right now. If I became an advisor to anyone in the Japanese government, I'd advocate two things as chief priorities - (1) exceedingly good relations with China, and (2) re-militarize. Then join the next war they can on America's or China's side. Combined with some standard messages of nationalism/strength/growth/unity, birth rates would almost certainly increase"

This is possibly the worst idea I've ever seen proposed on this site. An actual war between the three richest countries on the planet could possibly make the world unlivable for all of humanity. It's not a good solution for putting the Japanese economy on track.

This isn't the 20th century. Our mastery over the natural world has grown far too powerful for a war between strong countries. If you can make a convincing argument that war is inevitable even in these circumstances, then you've also explained the Fermi Paradox.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#102

Post by nhaehnle »

tomjen3 wrote: post #95
lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

You may very likely have been right about it in the past, but at least in Europe, two world wars essentially killed any military spirit left -- for everybody. There are no barbarians at the gates, they have all been (mostly) civilized. With regard to the rest of the western world, I think the kind of large scale war you talk about is permanently over -- both because it would be far too expensive for everybody and bec…

I'm not so sure about your view of Europe. I agree that a large scale war in Western Europe, especially involving Germany like the ones in the 19th and first half of the 20th century seem extremely unlikely. But Europe is larger than that.

The war in Yugoslavia was not so long ago, for one thing.

For another, Hungary got itself a nice extreme right regime that seems rather keen to transform the country into an authoritarian state. What if they decide, at some point, that the land occupied by some of the Magyars in neighboring countries should really belong to Hungary again?

Keeping the peace in Europe is far from a finished project.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#103

Post by paganel »

yaix wrote: post #96
lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

And apart from a flawed analysis of the Japanese society, on what historical examples are you basing your "theory"? Oh, and just to have a counter example: Switzerland

> Oh, and just to have a counter example: Switzerland

The Swiss are a strange bunch of people. As recent (or as long ago) as 500 years Machiavelli was praising their military spirit compared to the mercantile and money-oriented one of his Florentine fellows. He was predicting that the city of Florence's reliance on mercenaries instead of building a military spirit from the bottom up would finally lead to its submission. He was of course proven right, because while the Swiss have managed to preserve their independence through the centuries Tuscany was soon to fall under external dominance, but it begs the question if we would have been better off with a more militarized Florence but presumably less inclined to works of art (so no Michelangelo or Galleria degli Uffizi), or if it's ok that things happened just the way they did. Also, see Sparta vs. Athens.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#104

Post by ovi256 »

tomjen3 wrote: post #95
lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

You may very likely have been right about it in the past, but at least in Europe, two world wars essentially killed any military spirit left -- for everybody. There are no barbarians at the gates, they have all been (mostly) civilized. With regard to the rest of the western world, I think the kind of large scale war you talk about is permanently over -- both because it would be far too expensive for everybody and bec…

>There are no barbarians at the gates, they have all been (mostly) civilized.

Given the resurgence of nationalism and right movements holding anti-immigration feelings in Europe right now, that's far from an universal opinion. According to these guys, our gates are wide open and the barbarians are breeding in our backyards. Barbarians being, of course, undesirable immigrants from poor third-world countries, not cool white guys from across the pond.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#105

Post by nhaehnle »

emanuer wrote: post #67

I am married to a Japanese and live here right now, so I can only comment on the situation of the country. I will try to give an economical assessment of the situation. As you might be aware Japan had a “lost decade” during the 90s. It experienced almost no growth of the GDP. There are many theories as to why, but the most convincing one is: The Japanese “Baby Boomers” retired during this decade. In fact the percenta…

As you might be aware Japan had a “lost decade” during the 90s. It experienced almost no growth of the GDP. There are many theories as to why, but the most convincing one is: The Japanese “Baby Boomers” retired during this decade.

Richard Koo has a different view on this, one that should also inform the thinking in the US and rest of the Western world these days. According to him, the Japanese "lost decade" was caused by an asset price bubble collapse in housing. The parallels to the global financial crisis are fascinating.

See, for example, his talk which is linked here: http://seekerblog.com/2009/04/11/richard-koo-more-on-the-bal...

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#106

Post by mattm »

emanuer wrote: post #90
shard wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious about the problems that Japanese women have when marrying foreigners stemming from the women expecting a loveless marriage. Could you elaborate? I am assuming that you are not Japanese from your opening sentence. Have you encountered these problems in your marriage?

Your assumption is correct, I am European. I don’t feel comfortable to discuss private things in public, but I will state some facts. In my social circle there were 8 marriages between Japanese (all women) and foreigners. 4 ended in the past 3 years and were mainly attributed to different expectations of intimacy. The article http://goo.gl/QlAfx gives a very good description. I am unable to find a reputable source, b…

I don't agree that Japanese don't want sex. How else do you explain love hotels being found everywhere?

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#108

Post by Mz »

yaix wrote: post #96
lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

And apart from a flawed analysis of the Japanese society, on what historical examples are you basing your "theory"? Oh, and just to have a counter example: Switzerland

I'm confused by your comment. Are you proposing Switzerland as a "peaceful" country as a counter example? Due to mountainous terrain, they are fairly "isolated"/protected from invasion (one of the points above re what works to provide long term peace) and they also have about 2/3's of the adult (male?) population as part of a standing militia (which is in line somewhat with another point: "military supremacy").

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Switzerland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Switzerland

Heinlein: "An armed society is a polite society".

Unknown (at least by me): "A man of peace must be strong".

I don't necessarily agree with all the conclusions drawn by the OP but I don't see how Switzerland is some kind of "counter example". Please clarify as I am honestly baffled.

Thanks.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#109

Post by usaar333 »

lionhearted wrote: post #44

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

Another theory:

As this article points out a lot of woman aren't marrying or having kids because "being both employed and married is tough in Asia.".

In other words, these countries have enough equality where women are allowed in the labor force but not enough where the society has set up strong institutions to deal with women in the labor force. Another economist article dealt with the impossibility of finding day care in Japan. Lacking these institutions causes a huge economic cost to exist for having kids.

Indeed, among developed nations, you'll find a positive correlation between gender equality and total fertility rate.

Raw data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Gender_Gap_Report

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_de...

In Europe, the countries with the least gender gap have the highest fertility rates. (> 1.8 for all the top 5). The countries with the most are among the lowest (You see this as well with Asia. South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates on the planet and extremely high gender inequality. Same is true with Japan. The article notes that it hasn't hit China yet; I'd be surprised if the trend does materialize with (urban) China's vastly higher gender equality. (gotta give the Communist Party props there)

My policy recommendation to maintain replacement level TFR is to follow the example of Norway or Iceland: reduce the economic and social cost of having kids (parental leave policies, free day care, etc.) - a lot cheaper than going to war.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#110

Post by marvin »

emanuer wrote: post #90
shard wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious about the problems that Japanese women have when marrying foreigners stemming from the women expecting a loveless marriage. Could you elaborate? I am assuming that you are not Japanese from your opening sentence. Have you encountered these problems in your marriage?

Your assumption is correct, I am European. I don’t feel comfortable to discuss private things in public, but I will state some facts. In my social circle there were 8 marriages between Japanese (all women) and foreigners. 4 ended in the past 3 years and were mainly attributed to different expectations of intimacy. The article http://goo.gl/QlAfx gives a very good description. I am unable to find a reputable source, b…

Japanese don't need/want sex? Surely the Japanese are as horny as the rest of us. You'd have to come up with some pretty convincing data (surveys aren't worth anything when asking questions about sex) to convince me that there is some great difference in libido between Western and Eastern cultures.
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