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Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

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Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#91

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

Interesting observation - I think another way to describe this phenomenon is that every society has to convince it's members to accept their individual role as members of society in order for it to function (you might argue that is society's only purpose). We can't all be kings, senators, business tycoons, etc. -- someone has to be the janitor or the street sweeper or the factory worker, and society's basic purpose is to re-enforce the individual's choice in accepting their fate.

Long enough ago, this was as simple as raising certain classes and races of people as slaves and telling them what to do and enforcing it with violence. However it seems that no matter how much you try to control it, societies eventually achieve enough self-awareness of the general inequality of things to revolt and re-order society to make things more fair. The next system of control is then instituted, and is seen as a vast improvement, and thus accepted by those who rebelled against the previous, even though it may be simply a more complex version of the previous system (slave-owners/slaves,land-owners/indentured servants,royalty/peasants,ruling class/working class, etc.).

In this way, I believe it's similar to the quote from HHGTTG: "There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable." I think that what happens is every time a society reaches the level of self-awareness required to realize what's happening to them and has the will to change it, a simply more complicated and harder to understand and harder to destroy system ends up replacing it.

I think in this way, you can describe the cyclical nature of societies coming and going, and applying the reasons behind this fundamental change, understand why your theory of war being beneficial fits right in: war simply leaves no room for questioning society's demands of the individual. The reason this works is that members of a militarized or war-time society are indoctrinated, and those who end up members of the military trained from day one to obey orders and follow authority. After leaving the military, if you do you happen to survive and get out of the war, working a factory job and having a few kids is damn near paradise compared to the hell you went through. It is a very effective way to keep individuals from questioning their place in society or the fairness of it's structure and thus why I think it has the society-prolonging effect you've observed. War shifts individual's thinking from long-term (career, legacy, mark on the world, children's future) to short term (survival, employment, simply procreating).

If you buy into any of what I am saying, you might also hypothesize that the U.S came close to becoming self-aware of and motivated to change it's societal inequalities around 2008 with the reaction to the Government bail-outs and the housing market crash. I think the only reason that energy hasn't really gone anywhere yet is twofold: 1) With the economy in the shape it's in, it makes those who are employed more happy with their current employment situation than usual, and more unlikely to try to change things in general, since they are "lucky to even have a job in this economy", and aren't really feeling the inequality in their day to day lives. And it's not bad enough to where mass unemployment is giving people enough free time to organize and actually try to restructure the way our government works. 2) The act of electing public officials to office helps stave off the idea that "we need to restructure society" as it lets people restructure a symbol of society to them. Elections act as a relief valve for political pressure, since it allows people to 1) have input and make changes and 2) it buys time for the newly elected official to "get settled" in their office before people become dissatisfied again or economic/societal conditions improve, whichever comes first.

Sources: Just my theory on the matter, please point out where I am wrong (I'm sure I am in more than one way)

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#92
post #67

I am married to a Japanese and live here right now, so I can only comment on the situation of the country. I will try to give an economical assessment of the situation. As you might be aware Japan had a “lost decade” during the 90s. It experienced almost no growth of the GDP. There are many theories as to why, but the most convincing one is: The Japanese “Baby Boomers” retired during this decade. In fact the percenta…

One of your links http://goo.gl/QlAfx is interesting, because it states what "marriage" means. Western means love, eastern means children.

I was confused, because here (Germany) a marriages have financial advantages (less taxes). Having children is the expensive thing. So i wondered, why someone would reject a marriage for financial reasons. However, if marriage means children, then i understand the rejection.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#93
post #84
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

Never more quickly have I realized that there is no point in discussion. There are too many things I'd need to explain to make this anywhere near worthwhile. I'll just point out a few things and then I'll be on my way. This is nowhere near enough to explain everything to you, but I feel the need to give you a few more pointers. First of all, it would be common courtesy in any fruitful discussion that if you require m…

I deleted my comment before I knew you were writing a reply.

My comment originally said that I think there's two ways of exploring the world.

1. Start with a conclusion you want to be true and looking for evidence that supports your view, or

2. Start by gathering facts and trying to find conclusions in them.

You write:

> This is what I want, and therefore I try to find theories to support that.

Right. I think that view fundamentally leads to disastrously bad places. It leads to assuming you're correct and looking for confirmation instead of truth.

Truth is often unpleasant. Confirmation is easily found, even for the stupidest and craziest arguments - look at some of the clearly insane views that people hold with no backing.

Why do they think that way? Because they start with the idea that they're right and look to prove that. It's easy to prove you're right, especially if your views are the norm in your community.

It's much harder to say, "What if I'm wrong?" and to constantly seek out counter-arguments and test your views.

Everyone has views that are wrong, mistaken, poorly informed, and counter-productive. The challenge of becoming an informed person is challenging your views constantly - even your sacred ones - looking for smarter arguments.

It's difficult and stressful. I can't even recommend it if your goal in life is happiness, because if you succeed then everyone in your social circle starts to think you're nuts. But ideally, you become gradually less wrong over time and can do a lot of good for the world, even when your views look crazy to people who never stopped and asked, "What if the world isn't the way I thought it was...?"

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#94
post #8

George Gilder's "Naked Nomad's" is a great book studying single men in America. Unmarried men own the majority of bad statistical categories to be in. Higher death, suicide, crime, and disease rates. No society wants that burden.

This could also mean that women avoid getting married to men who are prone to "higher death, suicide, crime, and disease rates". For example, how many women would really get married to a hobo?

Yeah, selection bias. Not just shiftless hobos, either. As a man you're going to have a harder time finding a wife if you're sick or have unhealthy habits (like obesity or heavy drinking).

Edit: I expect the same is true for single women, too. I doubt single women live as long as their married counterparts on a statistical basis.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#95

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

You may very likely have been right about it in the past, but at least in Europe, two world wars essentially killed any military spirit left -- for everybody. There are no barbarians at the gates, they have all been (mostly) civilized.

With regard to the rest of the western world, I think the kind of large scale war you talk about is permanently over -- both because it would be far too expensive for everybody and because there is no winning a nuclear war.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#96

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

And apart from a flawed analysis of the Japanese society, on what historical examples are you basing your "theory"?

Oh, and just to have a counter example: Switzerland

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#97
post #12
post #2

"Japanese women, who typically work 40 hours a week in the office, then do, on average, another 30 hours of housework. Their husbands, on average, do three hours." "Marriage socialises men: it is associated with lower levels of testosterone and less criminal behaviour. Less marriage might mean more crime."

And the proof is...? How about, more crime might mean less marriage? I know it's not about Asia, but: http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/05/us-work-couples-pr... "London School of Economics sociologist Catherine Hakim's research shows that when both paid work and unpaid duties such as housework, care and voluntary work are taken into account, men do pull their own weight."

The "women do more housework" thing has been debunked over and over, at least in the west. You can only arrive at that conclusion by excluding traditional "man's work" jobs like yard work and car repair.

On the other hand, I have heard Japanese and Chinese men say they expect their wives to do all the housework, so maybe there really is a difference.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#98
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on this "mandatory elderly tax"? I've never heard of such a thing.

I choose to mention the nickname Japanese have for this tax. Really it is the municipal-tax which is either 7% (I think) of the income, or minimum of 180 USD/month (in my area, in Tokyo it is higher). The tax is used for the local infrastructure, but has risen dramatically in the past years to cover the costs of pensions. Therefor it got the nickname "elderly tax".

Wouldn't massive immigration solve the problem very rapidly?

Edit: Never mind. I just saw your third edit.

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#99

I have a theory that I haven't found expounded before. It came from a combination of travel through 60+ countries, living and working and interacting with local people on a pretty intimate level sometimes, and study of lots of history. It's going to be controversial and maybe even shocking, so brace yourself for a moment before reacting please. I think peaceful societies self-destruct. With a few notable exceptions t…

Oswald Spengler made a similar argument in 1918: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West

It was also one of the main factors Edward Gibbon blamed in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. However he had a somewhat different mechanism in mind than lionhearted's comment: he argued that Romans, as they got wealthy, no longer wished to personally serve in the military, so they hired mercenaries instead, which had the three effects of reducing the military readiness of normal Romans, filling the army with less loyal foreigners, and increasing the tax burden on agriculture. (It's worth noting that there's a lot of debate among later historians over whether that's the correct analysis.)

Re: Women are rejecting marriage in Asia. The social implications are serious.

#100
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, what's China going to do as we print our way out of our debt to them? If they get bellicose, then our nukes will come in handy. If they sit there and take what will essentially be a default on our debt via printing, then will be be conquered by them economically?

What will happen is no other country will invest in us again, and considering our addiction to debt, we will run into some... problems. Heck, if we inflate our currency aggressively enough, other countries could wind up simply not accepting our money . It's hard to imagine today, but it's a real possibility- the value and purchasing power of your money is entirely rooted in everyone else's confidence in it's stabilit…

There is no way other countries would stop accepting the US$, as long as the US has things that those other countries want to buy. The US has a lot of those things ranging from food to high-tech, so there's absolutely no risk that other countries would totally reject the US currency.

Yes, the exchange rates may well decline further, and this will force you to reduce your net imports - but that's only fair. You can only profit from other countries' work for so long without sending something tangible in return.

And as far as the "addiction to debt" is concerned, it gets a bit old to repeat the same things over and over again, but have you heard of the sectoral balances? Analyze the flows of money between the three macroeconomic sectors (the federal government, the domestic private sector, and the foreign sector), and it should become clear to you that the massive increase in debt over the last two years is simply a reflection of the fact that the US private sector has managed to amass insane amounts of wealth. [1]

The distribution of that wealth may be very lopsided, but then it's the distribution of that wealth that needs to be challenged, not the buildup of debt.

[1] Part of the debt build-up obviously also reflects foreign holdings, but the one thing that really stands out in the last few years in the US is how the private sector has gone from a deficit to a surplus as people attempt to fix their balance sheets.

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