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The metaverse is bullshit

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Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#691
post #690
post #676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t get how anyone who saw future dystopian sci fi in the 80s doesn’t understand that it’s all the result of increased privatisation. In what sense has there been increased privatization since the 1980s? Note that I'm not contradicting you, I'm just asking how you are measuring this. Note that Government spending has gone up. Since the 1980s, we've massively subsidized and increased regulation over healthcare (…

I think the primary distinction is between government expenditure on private production and government production. While in many cases governments still pay for things, they're not running them. The idea of course being that a profit motive improves efficiency, but of course it is competition that does so and in almost all cases government purchasing of private production suffers from the principal-agent problem: htt…

If you are focusing on government production, then how would you measure that? Well, one thing I can think of is BEA gross output by industry tables. It only goes back to 1997

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isur...

But in 1997, government output (both state and local) as a share of GDP was was 12.8%, and in 2019 (skipping the covid stuff) it was 12.4%. A decline of 0.4% -- it doesn't seem really relevant as an explanatory variable, does it?

Or are you measuring government production in some other way?

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#692
post #691
post #690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the primary distinction is between government expenditure on private production and government production. While in many cases governments still pay for things, they're not running them. The idea of course being that a profit motive improves efficiency, but of course it is competition that does so and in almost all cases government purchasing of private production suffers from the principal-agent problem: htt…

If you are focusing on government production, then how would you measure that? Well, one thing I can think of is BEA gross output by industry tables. It only goes back to 1997 https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isur... But in 1997, government output (both state and local) as a share of GDP was was 12.8%, and in 2019 (skipping the covid stuff) it was 12.4%. A decline of 0.4% -- it doesn't seem rea…

I don't know enough about that data set, but I think that the difference between "general government" and "government enterprises" is the gap between spending and production.

The "data" that demonstrates privatisation most clearly is the sale of government assets. I did a quick search for some reports, here's one but it's about 10 years old:

https://www.oecd.org/daf/ca/corporategovernanceofstate-owned...

Things like prisons, electrical infrastructure, toll roads, rail, educational institutions, are all examples where the government used to own and operate but there has been a shift towards either private ownership or private management or both. I don't think these things show up clearly in "spending" alone, because the amount that is spent may increase as a result of privatisation (a great example of this is that the US govt spends more per person on healthcare than Australia, where I'm from, despite having nowhere near the level of publicly avialable healthcare).

Another example is that NASA pays Spacex to deliver payloads to the ISS. That would still show up as spending by the government, but it has a huge component of profit going to a private corporation, and there's no "competition" to produce improvements for the consumers in that case (us, the public) because of the aforementioned principal-agent problem.

The use of military contractors is another example where govt spending != govt production, and the government can absolve themselves of some of the accountability that would otherwise result from direct management of those forces:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/30/...

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#693
post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One bit: “the book was better” crowd are a small vocal minority of the people who watch the book inspired movie. Most moviegoers will never have read the book.

Can you name some works first conceived as books where the movie adaptation was superior? Reading for pleasure requires an individual with a greater degree of imagination and intelligence vs staring at a screen and often takes a much greater time investment and yet often offers a broader set of experiences because one needn't convince someone to invest 100s of millions animating fantastic scenes if one author sitting…

Blade Runner, Forrest Gump, The Shining are all in my opinion better than the book.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#694
post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, no doubt. But the arguments fielded on HN as to why these various technologies are dead ends and will implode once people become rational are weak. They're usually from people who literally have never used the technology (or, used it many years ago.) At best, they have, don't get it (which is fine) but then go on to make the leap that since they didn't get anything out of it, the whole thing is a house of cards…

I want to make one thing clear from the outset - I want to get it. I want to get it because I want to restore my enthusiasm for tech. I want to understand how crypto and AR/VR are not a gimmick, a barren offshoot of human creativity that will lead nowhere. > The value prop of VR and AR is remote social presence on par with f2f and full sensory override Full sensory override how? VR (and VR-facilitated AR) can't even…

What are you drawing your conclusions re: VR from? Have you followed the research and used the hardware? It seems pretty clear we will have VR goggles that feel effectively indistinguishable from real life in terms of fidelity and optics relatively soon.

Also there are already decentralized exchanges within crypto assets (eg uniswap), but you do need to find a counter party to get out of fiat. It’s being worked on and centralized exchanges aren’t your only option. It would be worth catching up on DeFi.

Edit: btw I meant visual and auditory sensory override - I agree it is a ways off before you have full proprioception etc, if ever. Not necessary to beat face to face social presence tho.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#695
post #537

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

Sorry, have you seen their profits? Facebook is not going away any time soon.

They wouldn't be the first high power and highly profitable tech company to fade away...

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After how it ended I’d argue that they are way less popular now than any of the books

It's kind of astounding how rapidly the series has disappeared from the mainstream. Couldn't have bungled it up worse had they tried.

They recently started shooting the prequel... in my home town! I hope it's good, but in any case my friends and I will watch it for the lulz.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#697
post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is optimistic. Oculus is winning the early rounds of the VR market war. Google in 1998 was just another search engine. Netflix mailed DVDs. Amazon grew from $150 to 600m revenue and had just started selling music and movies. Facebook non-ad revenue is $3b annually and growing. Oculus store and devices account for easily half or more of that number. Beat Saber on the Quest 2 alone has cracked $100m. Beat…

Nobody cares about VR.

Great contribution to the discussion!

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#698
post #692
post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are focusing on government production, then how would you measure that? Well, one thing I can think of is BEA gross output by industry tables. It only goes back to 1997 https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isur... But in 1997, government output (both state and local) as a share of GDP was was 12.8%, and in 2019 (skipping the covid stuff) it was 12.4%. A decline of 0.4% -- it doesn't seem rea…

I don't know enough about that data set, but I think that the difference between "general government" and "government enterprises" is the gap between spending and production. The "data" that demonstrates privatisation most clearly is the sale of government assets. I did a quick search for some reports, here's one but it's about 10 years old: https://www.oecd.org/daf/ca/corporategovernanceofstate-owned... Things like…

The industry output tables I mentioned do not measure "spending" per se, they measure value-add, that is, spending minus purchases of other sectors, so private sector should be netted out.

Conceptually, say you have a government service -- DMV. You have to pay for the building, you pay salaries, you buy equipment, etc. Now the government doesn't make its own pens or computers and it doesn't have its own electricians to service the DMV, it pays for goods and services from the private sector. So you would want to subtract out what it buys from the private sector, which is exactly what the value-add definition for the government sector does. This is to avoid double counting, since these add up to GDP and you want the sales of the computer maker to not be counted twice when you add up the value add of all indutstries to get GDP. Think of this also as the definition of a VAT - value added tax - it's computed as sales net of purchases. Except for government, it would be the budget net of purchases from the private sector, the residual being inferred as "government production". I am not sure how else to objectively measure government production, seeing as how that includes things like social workers, building inspectors, etc.

Therefore I think the data I cited is consistent with your definition, except that it is goods and services (most of what the government produces is services such as education and police, not goods, like roads).

But if you want to look at fixed assets (e.g. the DMV building itself, or the school building), then there is a different BEA table to look at, namely this one here:

https://www.bea.gov/data/government/fixed-assets#:~:text=Wha....

With fixed assets, you have to decide how to value them -- at current cost, historical cost, or real cost -- discussed here: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/methodologies/Fixed-Assets-.... This boils down to valuing that old computer at the DMV based on what it cost to buy deflated by some percentage based on estimated service life or how much you could sell it for today on the open market.

Check out the asset tables: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=10&step=2

Using current cost accounting, in 1980 government fixed assets were 2.4 Trillion in 1980 and 16.1 Trillion in 2021, or a growth rate of 671% (a CAGR of 4.9%).

Whereas looking at private sector fixed assets also at current cost, we see it went from 7.1 Trillion in 1980 to 51.7 Trillion in 2020, or an increase of 728% (CAGR of 5.0%)

So it is true that private sector fixed assets increased 0.1% faster than government sector fixed assets over that 40 year period, but that certainly doesn't seem like evidence of mass privatization. This is true even if some things were privatized. E.g. maybe we started contracting with more private prisons but also added 20 new public universities in that period, so the net "privatization" was small.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#699

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

> What's App is not monetizable That seems shortsighted. I’m not even talking about destroying the app by adding ads or selling user data. They could add payments between individuals, it would instantly become the default method in many countries. Expand it to pay businesses then, via QR codes like they have in China. Make sure you’re cheaper than cards and Apple/Google Pay, especially for small sums. They could sell…

That's what wechat is like in China and tech folks hate it.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#700
post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because people dismiss the latest lofty vision of a tech behemoth No, the reason is because many new technologies are dismissed here not due to technical infeasibility, but because posters cannot understand the point or value proposition. When this is happening in response to technologies that many people are using and investing in as early adopters, which provides proof of some kind of value at a minimum, is gener…

Will you recognize that it doesn't actually have to be a point to it, though? As long as you can spellbind investors there doesn't actually need to be something useful that's build at the end of the day. "Crypto" is a good example of this. A lot of the products and services that were build using Blockchain could just have used a normal RDBMS.

> A lot of the products and services that were build using Blockchain could just have used a normal RDBMS.

That's how you dismiss the value and can't understand

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