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Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

blog.pnas.org

71–80 of 241 posts

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#71

No, it isn't waning. There are struggles, but that doesn't mean its waning. We're having massive progress in medicine, space, cosmology, environment, biology, food, transportation. Hell, the only thing that's waning is public perception of science and that seems to be a deliberate political attack.

I think it's obviously waning if you look at any field that deals with physical world: a car from 1940 looks totally different than one from 1980's, but the one from 2020 and 1980 looks almost the same. Space rockets are same as they were in 80's, where are nuclear engines, fusion propultion, etc? Its the same for airplanes, appliances, and everything execept computers. https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/145134227466…

Cars are vastly different than they were in 1980. Fuel injection, aerodynamics, airbags, driver assist, hybrid and electric drivetrains, etc… the difference between a 1980 Honda Civic and a 2020 civic is massive.

In 1980 we weren’t landing self piloting rocket stages on drone ships and reusing them a month later. The engines powering our rockets were completely different chemistry and metallurgy. We weren’t building hyper efficient carbon fiber airframes with high bypass turbofans (Dreamliner). Even my washing machine is using about half the energy compared to a washing machine in 1989.

Composites, manufacturing, and design are all completely different to how things were in the 80s

Just because something has a similar form factor doesn’t mean it is the same. There is a strong argument that the past 40 years has seen some of the fastest progress in the history of the human race when it comes to making things.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#72

No, it isn't waning. There are struggles, but that doesn't mean its waning. We're having massive progress in medicine, space, cosmology, environment, biology, food, transportation. Hell, the only thing that's waning is public perception of science and that seems to be a deliberate political attack.

I think it's obviously waning if you look at any field that deals with physical world: a car from 1940 looks totally different than one from 1980's, but the one from 2020 and 1980 looks almost the same. Space rockets are same as they were in 80's, where are nuclear engines, fusion propultion, etc? Its the same for airplanes, appliances, and everything execept computers. https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/145134227466…

Safety, performance, handling, comfort, ease-of-use, reliability, and efficiency have all significantly improved.

The difference in experience of driving a 2020 Tesla Model S vs a 1980 Cadillac Seville is more drastic than that same Cadillac and its 1940s equivalent.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#73
post #47

One thing obvious is the breakdown between theory and experiment in physics. Newton's great accomplishment was discovering a link between terrestrial and extraterrestrial physics. Today on the large scale we see it takes multiple kinds of "dark matter" to explain the rotation of galaxies, structure of galaxy clusters, and cosmology. "Dark matter" evades any attempt to detect it on Earth. Einstein's prediction of how…

I don't understand why consensus jumped to the conclusion that there must be a new form of undetectable matter instead trying to figure out what we don't know about gravity. Theoretical particle physics is even worse. There haven't been any advances since the 1970's. Experimental particle physics has done a great job in verifying/testing the predictions from the 1960's/1970's but theoretical physicists are stuck in a…

Consensus shifted away from MOND and towards LCDM due to degrees of freedom in observations. A trivialized comparison would be "Why did artists give up on finding the best color and instead focus on finding the best arrangement of color on canvas?"

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#74
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's obviously waning if you look at any field that deals with physical world: a car from 1940 looks totally different than one from 1980's, but the one from 2020 and 1980 looks almost the same. Space rockets are same as they were in 80's, where are nuclear engines, fusion propultion, etc? Its the same for airplanes, appliances, and everything execept computers. https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/145134227466…

I started driving in 1982... and I can say with 100% certainty that cars of 2020 may not look all that different from cars of 1980, but under that skin of glossy steel and glass, they are very different. The engines are different (electronic fuel injection, timing and compression ratio monitoring), the transmissions are different (dual clutch, torque vectoring differential), the electronics are massively different, s…

I started driving around that time, too... in a 1950 Studebaker. Not only do I agree with everything you say about the difference between cars of today and 30 years ago, the magnitude of advances has accelerated too.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#75

One thing obvious is the breakdown between theory and experiment in physics. Newton's great accomplishment was discovering a link between terrestrial and extraterrestrial physics. Today on the large scale we see it takes multiple kinds of "dark matter" to explain the rotation of galaxies, structure of galaxy clusters, and cosmology. "Dark matter" evades any attempt to detect it on Earth. Einstein's prediction of how…

Heliocentrism was proposed in the 3rd century BC. When it was confirmed? Microorganisms were hypothesized in 11th century, were confirmed in 17th century.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#76

The entire college phd system is toxic and self serving. At my local college the guy the physic department building was named after was obsessed with some weird thing that no one understood and when he died they just mothballed all his "projects" equipment. No one had any idea what it was or what to do with it and it filled a good part of the building. He was not easy to get along with and shot down anything that he…

Do you really expect useful discussion when you say stuff like this? Normal academia isn't like that.

Sounds par for the course for academia I have been exposed to, although that's anecdata. Not sure what "normal academia" entails.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#77
post #17
post #7

Was academia terribly relevant in my field when I was a grad student? Nope. In general, the work was poorly supervised, not-reproducible, and the peer review process was completely broken. Students just wanted to graduate and professors just wanted tenure and funding points.

Something has changed. I can't imagine Einstein's generation functioning like that. Have pioneers of innovation moved to private corporations now that they have capital that rivals academia? Private companies can reward innovators with more than just credentials. Bell Labs, Xerox Parc, Google Brain, OpenAI, Tesla, SpaceX, ... Granted, this isn't even across all fields as they are not all economic drivers.

Bell Labs was only pseudo private. The government required they have that research lab in exchange for being allowed to have a monopoly. One should also consider that institutions like that were partly so productive for being at the right place and time in history, when we were developing the tools to exploit the low hanging fruit nature has to offer us. That whole era, we snatched it all up quick. Spaceflight and such didn't stagnate after because we turned to idiots, but because mass and aerodynamic drag and Newton impose pretty inalienable constraints.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#78
I think we're just seeing a sector getting used to a systemic shift from for-profit vetting by name brand publications and universities to a freer publication system with lower average quality. As an engineer I'm a consumer of science publications and the way I get what I need has definitely been affected by this.

We'll figure it out eventually.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#79
post #47

One thing obvious is the breakdown between theory and experiment in physics. Newton's great accomplishment was discovering a link between terrestrial and extraterrestrial physics. Today on the large scale we see it takes multiple kinds of "dark matter" to explain the rotation of galaxies, structure of galaxy clusters, and cosmology. "Dark matter" evades any attempt to detect it on Earth. Einstein's prediction of how…

I don't understand why consensus jumped to the conclusion that there must be a new form of undetectable matter instead trying to figure out what we don't know about gravity. Theoretical particle physics is even worse. There haven't been any advances since the 1970's. Experimental particle physics has done a great job in verifying/testing the predictions from the 1960's/1970's but theoretical physicists are stuck in a…

What makes you think anyone is jumping to conclusions? Many explanations have been proposed but the undetectable matter explanation is still the leading candidate.

From observations, we can see dark matter acting independently of visible matter. It's very difficult to explain this any other way.

Re: Too many new papers may mean novel ideas rarely rack up citations

#80
post #47

One thing obvious is the breakdown between theory and experiment in physics. Newton's great accomplishment was discovering a link between terrestrial and extraterrestrial physics. Today on the large scale we see it takes multiple kinds of "dark matter" to explain the rotation of galaxies, structure of galaxy clusters, and cosmology. "Dark matter" evades any attempt to detect it on Earth. Einstein's prediction of how…

I don't understand why consensus jumped to the conclusion that there must be a new form of undetectable matter instead trying to figure out what we don't know about gravity. Theoretical particle physics is even worse. There haven't been any advances since the 1970's. Experimental particle physics has done a great job in verifying/testing the predictions from the 1960's/1970's but theoretical physicists are stuck in a…

> I don't understand why consensus jumped to the conclusion that there must be a new form of undetectable matter instead trying to figure out what we don't know about gravity.

Is it implied in "I don't understand" that "it's not understandable?" There is quite a bit of evidence that point towards dark matter and away from problems in our theories of gravity. We have direct evidence for forms of matter that do not interact with particular fields, it would be unsurprising to find other forms that are extremely difficult or impossible to detect.

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