361–370 of 516 posts
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With Electricity prices topping $0.30/kWh in many places, this is no longer true... Unless you also have solar panels at home and want to have the hassles of making sure your EV only charges on sunny days, you're going to be paying rates for electricity close to rates for dinosaur-fuel, especially if you're comparing to a modern 60 mpg gas car.
Which cars are 60 mpg?
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Note, the EV revolution and Tesla being the winner of the EV revolution are different outcomes. They're certainly winning the EV race now, but it's possible that some of the other car companies can overtake them.
The bear thesis for Tesla has been something like, "Tesla might have an innovative EV-first design, but when the major manufacturers with a century of manufacturing know-how wake up to EVs, they will drown Tesla in vehicles." I think part of what's driving the increase in Tesla's value is the realization that this thesis was wrong. Tesla is now beating all the established manufacturers at gross automotive margins, an…
OTOH everybody is in a bit of an uncharted territory with the EVs and SW heavy cars. VW's new Golf has been riddled with SW bugs, and their EV line has not avoided it as well. But the body panels, interior materials... And Tesla (Musk) has said they need to improve the build quality and lower warranty claims.
So like I said- would be interesting to revisit these numbers, maybe not now, but in a year...
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For the record, their market cap is also greater than "Australia's Woodside Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total [combined]" [1], so they're also valued kind of crazy compared to energy companies...and that was in January 2021 before the most recent spike. Sure, part of that is faith in renewable…
So if they’re so big now, why can they throw more weight around than energy companies in terms of getting rid of the fossil fuel lobby?
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Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…
That’s true. But also, presumably, these companies outsourced their supply chains etc because it was (or seemed) profitable. There is still a disconnect for me. First everyone outsources, apparently successfully for automotive, and that’s great, all these joint ventures between car makers etc. Then Tesl comes along, integrates everything, and poof that’s also good..?
Tesla started much later and didn't have this problem.
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The bear thesis for Tesla has been something like, "Tesla might have an innovative EV-first design, but when the major manufacturers with a century of manufacturing know-how wake up to EVs, they will drown Tesla in vehicles." I think part of what's driving the increase in Tesla's value is the realization that this thesis was wrong. Tesla is now beating all the established manufacturers at gross automotive margins, an…
The major manufacturers still might catch up - once they really start caring. I agree with the posters elsewhere in the thread that predict the fossil fuel industries will collapse rapidly, rather than gradually - and the way I see it, major car manufacturers are still mostly trying to extract as much value now as possible from the ICE market. But once the floor falls off? They won't go gentle into that good night. I…
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As far as I can tell, from the somewhat minimal GUI Tesla gives you, and the general feeling while driving... You can "coast" with regen on, you just need to balance the accelerator at the point where you aren't adding power, but the car isn't taking power away. You won't see any green or black on the power usage bar. Coming down long mountain roads, it's somewhat easier than coasting in an ICE and having to continua…
This is correct. You coast by feathering the accelerator.
I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.
We don't know if this was a decision after thorough analysis or just a quick money grab.
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The bear thesis for Tesla has been something like, "Tesla might have an innovative EV-first design, but when the major manufacturers with a century of manufacturing know-how wake up to EVs, they will drown Tesla in vehicles." I think part of what's driving the increase in Tesla's value is the realization that this thesis was wrong. Tesla is now beating all the established manufacturers at gross automotive margins, an…
What about China? They really want to win that race, is there a reason they wont be a serious competitor?
If and when the landscape on the western markets changes to be regulatorily more favorable and provide sufficient charging infrastructure, I fully expect Chinese manufacturers to entirely own the lower half of that market, because even the cheapest Tesla can produce is way way more expensive than your average petrol car, whereas Chinese-made EVs are competitive with petrol on the Chinese market already now, and prices keep dropping. A new BYD e2 with extended (253 mile) battery sells for the equivalent of $25k. The Tesla model 3 sells for twice that on the same market. On the lower end, with smaller batteries, you have cars like the Levdeo i3 with 100 mile range which sells for the equivalent of $10k, and the phenomenally cute Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (75 mile range) which sells for the equivalent of $5k. Tesla still owns the luxury EV market everywhere, including in China, but there's simply nothing they offer in those price ranges, and that's where the big volumes are going to be in the future as infrastructure catches up. Still, because luxury cars have higher profit margins, I can see Tesla surviving and holding a large part of that segment.
There's also a huge market for EVs in the global South, where infrastructure is currently abysmal but there is extreme sensitivity to fuel prices. The market there can move very rapidly in response to even minor infrastructure improvements, and small cheap EVs would be the primary seller in those markets. Tesla has no chance there, but the Chinese EV vendors do.
If there's anyone losing the "race" it's traditional Western and Japanese car vendors. They fucked up time after time, and are the tail-end of the current EV industry. I don't see a path where they get their shit together fast enough to not be overrun by Tesla and a bunch of Chinese EV vendors, so they can only win by creating regulatory roadblocks.
I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.
Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…
I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.
Retail investors, and particularly first time investors, in the market have been growing rapidly. These kinds of investors tend to be less careful with where they invest, relying primarily on the media, word of mouth and hype than on fundamentals. With enough people you have a critical mass, creating a chain reaction that's impossible to stop. This is literally free investment for a company. As a serious investor, you would be foolish to ignore this. Even if the company was not positioned to do well earlier, this new found cash flow gives them a huge edge. And thus this creates a sort of a self fulfilling prophecy where more and more people invest, because they believe everyone else is investing, and because everyone else is investing the company will surely become #1 irrespective of where they are today, and inadvertently propelling the company to become #1 in the process.