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Hertz orders 100k Teslas

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Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#341

Post by opinion-is-bad »

Thlom wrote: post #320
HWR_14 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note, the EV revolution and Tesla being the winner of the EV revolution are different outcomes. They're certainly winning the EV race now, but it's possible that some of the other car companies can overtake them.

Norway is the most mature EV market in the world and it's not clear from the sales statistics that Tesla is winning. They sell a lot of vehicles, but not the most (might be winning in profits though).

Isn’t this due to supply constraints, at least in part? There simply are not enough teslas available to meet current demand, so they end up buying other brands to avoid waiting a few months.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#342

Post by TeMPOraL »

rtpg wrote: post #272
stmfreak wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…

Maybe what you're saying is true regarding the company itself, but it's a meme stock. You go down and talk to people, people will say that yet wouldn't actually invest in the basket of companies of those industries. It's not a problem for Tesla or Elon per-se, but we shouldn't assign intelligence to people basically voting for their favs with their wallets.

Shouldn't also blame these people, because the stock market is as much prescriptive as it's predictive: if enough people "vote for their favs with their wallets", those favs may actually start (or keep) doing OK because of that, if they're not completely incompetent.

(Myself, if I had some funds that are not already earmarked for something more important, I'd dump some into TSLA just as an expression of support to Musk and electrification of transport. I'm sure many people did just that, with no expectations of return.)

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#343

Post by iknowstuff »

alphabettsy wrote: post #288
jlmorton wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bear thesis for Tesla has been something like, "Tesla might have an innovative EV-first design, but when the major manufacturers with a century of manufacturing know-how wake up to EVs, they will drown Tesla in vehicles." I think part of what's driving the increase in Tesla's value is the realization that this thesis was wrong. Tesla is now beating all the established manufacturers at gross automotive margins, an…

I wonder how much of the margin is made up of the $10,000 FSD option?

The take rate was somewhat recently estimated at 11%.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#344

Post by TeMPOraL »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #329
Waterluvian wrote: post #163

I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.

I've always been optimistic about the EV (and solar and battery) revolution, but I still don't understand the Tesla share price. If there genuinely is going to be a revolution, then Tesla can't own it all.

Revolution is years from now, the stock will surely readjust, especially once competing players enter the field (and people actually believe these players are playing in Tesla's league wrt. EVs).

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#345

Post by gnicholas »

thehappypm wrote: post #77

Electric cars are actually a very good fit for many rentals. Thinking through my last 5 rentals. A wedding that was 1 hour from an airport, ~100 miles RT. A ski trip where I wanted to drive from Denver to my AirBnB near Winter Park Colorado, ~200 miles RT. A hiking trip where I needed a second car for a point-to-point car shuttle (New Hampshire!), ~120 miles RT. A bachelor party where I needed to drive from the airpo…

Can anyone with an EV speak to the difference in insurance for these vehicles? That is, if I rented a Tesla, would my regular insurance cover me sufficiently, or would I be a fool not to buy the rental company's insurance addon? I'm sure they'll charge a pretty penny for this, and scare plenty of folks into buying it. What would be good reasons to do so?

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#346

Post by vardump »

londons_explore wrote: post #332
kjksf wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was talking about Tesla having lowest probability of injury in a crash, as measured by NHTSA (and every other agency that does crash testing).

A good chunk of this is that Tesla's are designed very carefully for these exact tests. I'm willing to bet performance would drop substantially if you modified the test even a little - for example changing the collision angle from 0 degrees to 5 degrees. Other car manufacturers also 'design for the test', but less so I suspect.

> A good chunk of this is that Tesla's are designed very carefully for these exact tests.

Any source for this claim?

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#347

Post by rich_sasha »

stmfreak wrote: post #225
Waterluvian wrote: post #163

I was very pessimistic about Tesla and confused by their stock price. But I now believe that they indeed are doing it and that we’re finally at the EV revolution. I’m not an early adopter type and the Teslas don’t excite me at all, but I’m really delighted that the market is evolving. I’m delighted that I was wrong.

Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…

That’s true. But also, presumably, these companies outsourced their supply chains etc because it was (or seemed) profitable.

There is still a disconnect for me. First everyone outsources, apparently successfully for automotive, and that’s great, all these joint ventures between car makers etc. Then Tesl comes along, integrates everything, and poof that’s also good..?

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#348

Post by TeMPOraL »

jlmorton wrote: post #283
HWR_14 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note, the EV revolution and Tesla being the winner of the EV revolution are different outcomes. They're certainly winning the EV race now, but it's possible that some of the other car companies can overtake them.

The bear thesis for Tesla has been something like, "Tesla might have an innovative EV-first design, but when the major manufacturers with a century of manufacturing know-how wake up to EVs, they will drown Tesla in vehicles." I think part of what's driving the increase in Tesla's value is the realization that this thesis was wrong. Tesla is now beating all the established manufacturers at gross automotive margins, an…

The major manufacturers still might catch up - once they really start caring. I agree with the posters elsewhere in the thread that predict the fossil fuel industries will collapse rapidly, rather than gradually - and the way I see it, major car manufacturers are still mostly trying to extract as much value now as possible from the ICE market.

But once the floor falls off? They won't go gentle into that good night. I expect a wave of bailouts, consolidation and rapid retooling (and playing every dirty trick in the MBA book there is). I wouldn't discount the possibility that some of the survivors will have enough infrastructure and engineering competence remaining to quickly become a serious competitor for Tesla. In parallel, Tesla itself may fall prey to one of many ways companies decay over time. And then, of course, there's China.

But all in all, as long as Tesla's current performance pushes EVs over the threshold of market acceptability (which I believe it did a few years ago) and gives it some serious momentum, it's "mission fucking accomplished", regardless of who's the market leader in 10 or 20 years.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#349

Post by guiriduro »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #342
rtpg wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe what you're saying is true regarding the company itself, but it's a meme stock. You go down and talk to people, people will say that yet wouldn't actually invest in the basket of companies of those industries. It's not a problem for Tesla or Elon per-se, but we shouldn't assign intelligence to people basically voting for their favs with their wallets.

Shouldn't also blame these people, because the stock market is as much prescriptive as it's predictive: if enough people "vote for their favs with their wallets", those favs may actually start (or keep) doing OK because of that, if they're not completely incompetent. (Myself, if I had some funds that are not already earmarked for something more important, I'd dump some into TSLA just as an expression of support to Mu…

Isn't Tesla one of the least capital efficient ways to invest in transport electrification? How much of that will end up in genuine R&D and furtherance of your aims, as against paying for transient meme interest and massive risk loading?

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#350

Post by fragmede »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #303
dado3212 wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the record, their market cap is also greater than "Australia's Woodside Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total [combined]" [1], so they're also valued kind of crazy compared to energy companies...and that was in January 2021 before the most recent spike. Sure, part of that is faith in renewable…

I might be a bit crazy, but you just mentioned a slate of companies that absolutely have no future at their current scale. Sure this won't happen overnight... But my theory with petroleum is that it has so many HUGE economies of scale built into its production that a demand collapse will send it into a rapid tailspin. A small version of this happened in the Dakotas when the Saudis started dumping oil to get it under…

- People realize what a game changer it is to charge your car overnight and start every day with a full tank of "gas". It's a tiny detail, but a car that can only go 100 miles before needing to refill the gas tank is annoying. A car that starts every day with a 100 miles of range is terribly (for the oil companies) convenient.
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