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Hertz orders 100k Teslas

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Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#332
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By metrics that Tesla uses. IIHS, NHTSA, other entities have other thoughts.

He was talking about Tesla having lowest probability of injury in a crash, as measured by NHTSA (and every other agency that does crash testing).

A good chunk of this is that Tesla's are designed very carefully for these exact tests.

I'm willing to bet performance would drop substantially if you modified the test even a little - for example changing the collision angle from 0 degrees to 5 degrees.

Other car manufacturers also 'design for the test', but less so I suspect.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are doing the math on car TCO finally. If nothing goes wrong, the first two-three years are practically free for an EV. Home charging costs pennies and if you're really stingy you can use free public chargers. Then you might need a new set of tires maybe a quick maintenance at the dealership and you're good for a few years again.

With Electricity prices topping $0.30/kWh in many places, this is no longer true... Unless you also have solar panels at home and want to have the hassles of making sure your EV only charges on sunny days, you're going to be paying rates for electricity close to rates for dinosaur-fuel, especially if you're comparing to a modern 60 mpg gas car.

Most charging takes place at night. At least where I am it’s a lot cheaper.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#335
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's crazy. Who pays the single-unit retail price for 100,000 units of something?! That doesn't happen in business, ever, unless something weird is going on.

That weird thing is called supply & demand. Econ 101 Traditionally car makers offer volume discounts because they have excess capacity i.e. they can make more cars that they can sell. Currently Tesla is sold out 6 months in advance on Model 3 SR (the one that Hertz is buying). Currently Tesla doesn't care if Hertz buys cars from them or not because they are sold out for the foreseeable future either way. So if Hertz…

Things are never that black and white.

Knowing you have a 100k order gives you more confidence to increase production for the medium term, even if it's not that useful in the short term.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s stock price is confusing if you compare them to a car company. But they are not just a car company. They are also a car manufacturing supply chain, having brought much of their component production in house. They are also an energy company, both generation and storage, but also distribution, like gas stations. Think Exxon, BP, Chevron, ARCO, etc. They are probably a few other things, but this is the mystery o…

For the record, their market cap is also greater than "Australia's Woodside Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total [combined]" [1], so they're also valued kind of crazy compared to energy companies...and that was in January 2021 before the most recent spike. Sure, part of that is faith in renewable…

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Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the record, their market cap is also greater than "Australia's Woodside Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total [combined]" [1], so they're also valued kind of crazy compared to energy companies...and that was in January 2021 before the most recent spike. Sure, part of that is faith in renewable…

I might be a bit crazy, but you just mentioned a slate of companies that absolutely have no future at their current scale. Sure this won't happen overnight... But my theory with petroleum is that it has so many HUGE economies of scale built into its production that a demand collapse will send it into a rapid tailspin. A small version of this happened in the Dakotas when the Saudis started dumping oil to get it under…

We are so dependent on fossil fuels that I'm slightly more sceptical. Over 90% of global energy is created with fossil fuels. We often get fooled about the electricity sector which is something like 1/3 renewables. But electricity is only 30% of fossil fuel consumption. Even if the share of electricity increases to 40% because of ev's and we produce 80% with renewables, we still have ~70% that requires fossil fuel production. That 70% is not that easy to replace -- we are talking about manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, mining, etc. Getting rid of coal only increases oil and gas demand.

I'm not sure what is the percentage of consumer sales for any if those companies mentioned, but I suspect that even if it was 0 it would not drastically affect anything but profits. Oil will be less profitable -- yes, but it will be widely used as long as energy required to mine it is less than what is produced. It is unfortunate, but these companies are on a very good long term business (hard to say really because I don't know what are the global untapped oil reserves).

Manufacturing components to produce renewables require a lot of fossil fuels as well. We are not yet at the point where we can create new renewables without using fossil fuels.

I'm not saying the floor will not fall, but I'm afraid that if the floor falls we are in quite big trouble, and it is not because if the EV market.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#339

Is it just me that see that something funky is going on there? Hertz is just out of bankruptcy, and immediately they order 100,000 Tesla to be delivered, and so paid I guess, in just 1 year! Let's imagine that they have the Tesla with a very good discount: 30000$ a piece. That would cost them: 100 000 x 30 000 = 3 000 000 000 $ I have hard time to believe that they have that cash in hand, or that they can borrow that…

I think you are thinking about it wrong. A lender will happily lend $3B discounted slightly because the loan is secured by… $4B worth of Teslas thanks to that bulk purchase discount. Now, imagine if that lender is Tesla Financing Arm N.A. It’s not a bet concerning whether or not Hertz has $3B cash on hand, it’s a bet if the lender thinks Hertz branding is good enough to pay the note. I would bet so. Finally, there ma…

This is close to what I think could be a possibility.

In financial reports of Tesla, there are more and more cars that are "leased" by Tesla, and maybe they are thinking of "outsourcing" that to Hertz.

But still, Hertz is not so financially solid, and one has to remember that a car, as an asset, loose value very fast on the after market.

Re: Hertz orders 100k Teslas

#340

How wonder how Hertz intends to handle turnaround delays. If I turn in an ICE car at noon, they can clean and gas it and (as a guess) a new customer can drive away in it at 12:15. With an electric, filling it with energy could take quite a long time. I'm sure Hertz considered that, but I wonder how that works into their calculations.

FYI Hertz already announced that they will require a minimum charge of 10% for returned cars. So they thought about it and deemed it worthy to comment on in the announcement.

If you don't require your customers to return a full vehicle, they don't need to deliver them full to the customer either. I experienced this in Croatia when I discovered they are actually not allowed to require the car be returned full (some local legislation apparently). So they delivered it about 3/5th full and I returned it back in the same state. They just eyeballed it and it was fine. Actually annoying like this because I had to remember when to fill it up (and by how much) in order to return it with that quantity. In the end I put about 10 liters in it when it was about 2/5th and then drove another 20km.

They'll probably do a quick top up using their own chargers while they are cleaning the car. No need for them to charge to anywhere close to 100%. It's actually bad for the battery to do that regularly. So, it's also not something they'd want their customers to do. Anything over 10% is fine and can be topped up in 20 minutes or so to about 70-80% if you have the right charging infrastructure. But probably lower once they start cutting cost a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to get a Tesla rental with 40-50% charge only. Plenty of range on that and I can fix it at the next super charger in 20 minutes. For free because its included in the rental price (also announced). They just eliminated fuel as a variable cost for the driver. They'll probably charge per mile instead.

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