Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations • Hacker News Board

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#221

Post by gruez » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 9:57 PM UTC

skzv wrote: post #205

codezero wrote: post #84

A little off topic, but these ports don’t usually store so many empty crates, so why do we have them now? Are we not exporting at the same rate? Is that even what empty crates are used for? I’m assuming they aren’t sent back to (mostly?) China empty. I read something about the prices to ship out of the US being very high, but isn’t the price coming in also similarly proportionally high, yet we still have a backlog of…

> Are we not exporting at the same rate? Yes. To quote JP Morgan's recent article "Dude, where's my stuff?"[0]: > The surge in US import demand has led to a sharp rise in eastbound freight rates (see charts for Shanghai->LA and Shanghai->Rotterdam). However, westbound freight rates have not risen nearly as much, leading to an odd and problematic phenomenon: incentives for container owners to move them back to China e…

That explains why we're sending them empty, but why are ports clogged with them? Shouldn't it be pretty straightforward to load them onto the next ship?

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#222

Post by baybal2 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 9:57 PM UTC

Jolter wrote: post #184

algorias wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is completely standard in the shipping industry to have lopsided routes, where one direction has 100% full containers, and the return direction a much lower percentage, like 50%. The shipping cost of different routes takes this into account.

And hence the extreme explosion in shipping prices, I assume. Anyone buying freight from China to LA now has to also pay for returning the empty. What I’ve been told is the price for shipping one container has increased 10-fold because of this.

Yes, it's cheaper to dump the container, and buy new one in China.

Sounds absurd, but that's how it is.

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#223

Post by pessimizer » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 9:58 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #76

throwaway984393 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, people are pushed out of their homes because they can't afford to live in the neighborhood full of high rise apartments anymore, and they then struggle to make a living (much less find another place to live). It's funny that the GDP itself is prized over the people who are supposed to be the beneficiaries of an economy with a high GDP.

If such people are homeowners (after all, it is homeowners who are the one complaining about this on zoning boards), they’ll become fantastically wealthy in such a scenario. They have nothing really to complain about except a wealth tax (of course, by limiting property tax increases, California’s prop 13 is like a wealth SUBSIDY).

> they’ll become fantastically wealthy in such a scenario

If they leave immediately, rather than struggling to pay their massively increased property taxes, then mortgaging their house to keep up...

> by limiting property tax increases, California’s prop 13 is like a wealth SUBSIDY

...which apparently is a good outcome?

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#224

Post by JaimeThompson » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 9:59 PM UTC

quotemstr wrote: post #203

aerosmile wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The guy is a bad ass. If he wanted to run for President, he would win. I am really not exaggerating - I had a chance to meet him a few years back, and at that time he was the most impressive person I had talked to in person for an extended amount of time (not based on credentials or achievement, but simply based on clarity of thought and new ways of thinking). I also know that PG rates him incredibly highly. To give…

> If he wanted to run for President, he would win Yes. It would be great to have non-ideological leadership focused on solving practical problems instead of waging culture war.

Please expand on what you mean by "culture war"

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#225

Post by baybal2 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

aerosmile wrote: post #72

Everyone's focused on Ryan's comments about stacking, and the subsequent win there. Amazing job, Ryan, and thank you Robert Garcia for being a man to take one on the chin (for this solution not coming from your team) and for then doing the right thing. I am seriously impressed by not seeing any NIH (not invented here) behavior here. But why stop there? Ryan suggested 5 courses of actions, and made it clear that we ne…

> I can't stress enough how bad it is for the world economy if the ports don't work.

Not for the world economy, but for Chinese economy, as it's what US companies make the most of their money.

What the current crisis shows the most is that just how close the US economy coming to a sever crisis, from well.... just missing the shipment of holiday toys from China.

If China can inadvertently move US markets through just messing up with shipping toys, imagine how bad a deliberate economic sabotage action would be.

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#226

Post by labster » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:01 PM UTC

aerosmile wrote: post #170

Natsu wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, isn't someone from the government supposed to be in charge of this? Shouldn't they be out there finding out what's happening? It seems odd that no one has tried this, yet as someone who has worked in a factory, I can easily believe that the absentee managers have no idea what the hell actually goes on among the workers. You need to spend significant actual time, to the point of working actual shifts, to get a c…

I am sure you noticed that Ryan gently exposed those in charge of not doing enough by repeating the ship captain's comments that Ryan's team was the first to ask to get a tour of the port from the ocean side. Granted, perhaps those in charge have their own boats or are using helicopters, but the lack of action does make me wonder.

Ryan probably understands freight and logistics better than the government decision-makers. Regulatory bodies don’t often think in terms of changing the laws, and have narrower scopes. I bet the Long Beach zoning commission never even realized that they could be causing the backup, because the 2-high policy has worked fine for years.

In a democracy, we are the government. People who know how to fix problems need to engage with their representatives, not just hope they’ll figure out freight logistics problems because they have a law degree.

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#227

Post by kmbfjr » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:03 PM UTC

spenczar5 wrote: post #101

zzzeek wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would have no problem with people making things (“a factory”) next to a school. yes you would, if it were a large plastics manufacturer bringing large amounts of truck traffic and noise pollution and spewing carcinogenic PCB compounds into local atmosphere.

Zoning is not the same as regulation. We shouldn’t be spewing carcinogenic PCBs anywhere . Gigantic factories don’t want to be on small residential streets anyway because they cant fit the trucks in, so I think that argument cuts the other way - there are natural forces that deter that stuff.

Zoning exists as a common protection of property values. You may have no problem living next to a solid waste disposal site, but if they built one next to a home you owned for twenty years, you might come to appreciate zoning.

Make no mistake, the protection is more often than not for the local tax base. There more than enough examples of zoning changes approved because the change offers a multiple of new tax revenue.

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#228

Post by twic » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:03 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #85

Truckers are leaving containers all over Los Angeles.[1] Allowing stacking over 2 high is only useful if you have the equipment to stack over 2 high. A place that just stacks empty containers 2 high probably only has large forklifts. The special equipment for high stacking is far more expensive, and only bought if you need it.[2] A more useful proposal is a "peel pile".[3] This is a system which assigns outgoing truc…

What if they stood the containers up on end?

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#229

Post by jasonhansel » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #85

Truckers are leaving containers all over Los Angeles.[1] Allowing stacking over 2 high is only useful if you have the equipment to stack over 2 high. A place that just stacks empty containers 2 high probably only has large forklifts. The special equipment for high stacking is far more expensive, and only bought if you need it.[2] A more useful proposal is a "peel pile".[3] This is a system which assigns outgoing truc…

Though efficient, this sounds incredibly stress-inducing for drivers, since it makes them even less able to plan ahead and know their future work schedule.

Re: Long Beach has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations

#230

Post by adam_arthur » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

8note wrote: post #127

adam_arthur wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This chart tells you most of what you need to know. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI This shows the insane increase in personal income over the course of the pandemic. Many made more money on enhanced UI benefits than in their line of work. This is a known fact. People in this situation have more propensity to spend the marginal dollar than higher income earners. Spending as a percentage of income inversely tre…

I do know something else not specified by the chart. Everyone's been stuck at home and purchasing consumer items that would usually be bought in bulk and supplied by employers, restaurants, etc. Claiming it's government spending as the cause and not covid as the cause seems silly

The ability to spend is constrained by aggregate income and available credit in society.

Shifts in spending from services to goods can only alter consumption patterns so much.

Here is the Fed data on services spending: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCESV

As you can see, services spending is equivalent to 2019 levels today, while goods spending is 20% higher.

Consider the level of fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus through lower rates (cheaper credit), and expense reduction (moratoriums, forbearance).

The sheer magnitude of demand stimulation is frankly obvious, even without digging into the data. Of course, the data backs up this theory as well.

Saying it's "covid" isn't saying anything at all. You have to quantify what you're suggesting. What is the mechanism that can explain persistently higher goods spending? The data doesn't bear out substitution as the primary mechanism, either way.