I think in some ways ‘the year of the Linux desktop’ is an artifact from thinking about computing and operating systems in a way that is now outdated in ways unrelated to the situation of desktop Linux.
‘The year of the Linux desktop’ was an interesting vision of the future when thinking about the way people use computers at home meant thinking about Microsoft, and when people commonly (if probably erroneously even then) thought about Microsoft's market position mainly in terms of Windows desktop licenses. But nowadays the computers we use for most things at home are phones or tablets, and web apps have displaced native applications for a ton of the most common activities in desktop computing.
The question of the year of the Linux desktop is also one that's not really asked from the position of Linux users. It's a question about market trends, or what big desktop and laptop manufacturers might be doing with desktop Linux. But for existing Linux desktop users, or even just Linux desktop dabblers, the propositions that might actually impact their decisions or quality of life aren't really interrogated directly by the question of the year of the Linux desktop as it's usually framed.
Existing and prospective Linux desktop users are mostly interested in a ‘weaker’ year of the Linux desktop than one envisioned by massive corporate or government deployments:
* can I buy hardware that I know will just work with pretty much any Linux distro at a reasonable price from more than one or two vendors that are convenient, given where I live?
* when I buy peripherals or other accessories, will there be enough options at the store (physical or online) which mention Linux or bear the Tux logo that I can quickly make a choice without having to go online to consult some compatibility database?
* will my employer let me use desktop Linux at the office if I prefer it for my workflow?
* if I use desktop Linux at home, will I have to do a bunch of extra work to play a few casual rounds of the trendiest online multiplayer game with some friends?
and so on.
> for the first time ever I have seen people say '2022 is the year of the Linux desktop' and I think that there is actual substance to it rather than just blind naïve optimism.
I'm inclined to stay away from the phrase ‘year of the Linux desktop’ because it still recalls a lot of thinking firmly footed in the landscape of the late 90s and early aughts. But when we re-evaluate the YotLD as a proposition centered on current Linux desktop users and users who are likely to consider it in the moderate term, I think it makes sense to talk about it as something that's rapidly arriving or already here.