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More Americans are considering retirement

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Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sinking in debt thanks to my college, and you think boomers have that problem? No, they don't, and I wonder how old you are considering your views -- I honestly don't think you know any boomers with views like this, considering your only argument is the ones at grocery stores. My grandfather worked at a grocery store for 30 years and has a pension still going to this day. No jobs have pensions anymore. And I bet…

Not an American. I want to understand college debt. Is the situation so binary that if people don't take un-returnable debt they'll be stuck in lower end minimum-wage manual jobs? I understand state colleges are relatively cheaper.

No, a lot of people have no college debt at all, but for that you need to be strong academically to get academic scholarships. It's like in Europe only 1/3 go to university, so that's about the number that could go with little or no debt in the U.S. But the rest can also go if they don't get a scholarship and pay their own way.

And for a lot of people, they are strong academically to get a full ride to a less prestigious school but only get a partial scholarship to a more prestigious school, and then choose to go to the more famous school but then take on debt. Sometimes a lot of debt. So there are many people who go to the most prestigious school no matter the cost. I think that attitude is starting to change now.

There are also affordable state schools you can go to rather than more expensive private schools.

I went all the way to an advanced degree without any loans or personal spending (but I had to purchase books), just using scholarships and financial aid. But I didn't go to the most famous schools. In my high school I was in the top 10% in terms of both scores and grades, so that was enough to get admitted to most schools but not to get a full scholarship. So I got tuition waivers for the local state university and lived with my parents, and then for grad school I got full tuition waiver as well as a TA job that paid enough to live (barely).

But I know many other people who had the same high school grades and SAT scores as I did but went to Dartmouth or other places and took on huge debt. I didn't even consider those schools as I wasn't willing to take on any debt. I always went to the best school that was free.

If you don't go to university, then you have to find your own way in life. You can be very successful if you get a trade, but there is no good system of trade schools -- you have to find the trade yourself, and finance it yourself. Unlike the network of financial aid and scholarship for universities, there is nothing like that for trade schools. The US has no trade school system because it offends our sensibilities which say that everyone should go to college and that tracking is wrong. For the same reason, every high school styles itself as "college prep" but then they have to dumb down the curriculum to allow students to pass. Thus we have no gymnasium system where you are learning useful skills before (or instead of) college prep.

So it's really hard for people who are not college graduates because there is no equivalent support system to train them. The US has terrible problems with lack of skilled workers -- both a shortage of technical students in universitites and a shortage of machinists, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, etc. People in these fields find their own way. Many figure it out -- they meet someone who talks to them and shows them some options, or they have a friend who is an electrician and they find a school and borrow some money to attend, etc. But it's really random and it's easy to fall through the gaps and just take a series of unskilled retail jobs.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#92
post #12

rise in popularity of FIRE lifestyle with everyone in their late 20s too

Won't work if everyone does it. I wonder what the critical mass is. r/financialindependence has almost 1,000,000 followers.

1,000,000 follows, of which less than 10% will probably actually retire meaningfully early enough to have an economic impact.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#93
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe in high-COL areas, but a lot of the older people in the US also tend to live in areas that young people have mostly left, like rural areas or small towns. Owning a house for 30 years in Berkeley in 2021 is a lot different than owning a house for 30 years in Gary, IN.

Houses in rural areas still cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, with the added benefit of a lower cost of living.

Maybe one or two. I just dropped a pin in Tecumseh, OK and there are several houses for sale https://zillow.com/tecumseh-ok/?searchQueryState=%7B"paginat...

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#94

Great, just as we have a historical shortage of workers

Putting aside the worker shortage in the burger flipping type jobs, I’m an engineer currently interviewing and these companies all still think they can hire an “entry level” with 3 years of experience and then pay them only $60,000. The hiring managers also had a position opening in 2019, cancelled it because pandemic, then 2 years later don’t think they have to inflation adjust the benefits package (~7%!)

Don't forget putting them through 6 interviews, 2 coding challenges, and comparing them to everyone in the world first!

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#95
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, my wife and I are growing into this mindset. We both generally enjoy our careers and doing something meaningful, but we're focused on getting to the point where working is only for the "fun" things in life.

Kids or dinks? Huge difference in how the cash flows.

In my case, dinks. And aside from the basics of budgeting, I think there's a huge difference in mindset that would make it difficult to FIRE with kids. You are making a decision to reduce your children's opportunities because you don't want to keep struggling. It's much easier to decide for yourself when enough lifestyle is enough, but much harder to decide that music lessons or language exchange trips or a college fund or a generous baby shower gift are not needed for the kiddo.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#96
post #55
post #2

This sounds absolutely wonderful to me. At this point we have 2 generations straining for opportunities and advancement while the wealthiest and luckiest generation in the history of the country sits at the top of the ladder. Time for them to go enjoy their good fortune in Florida and let the rest of us crack into that turf they've been hoarding.

There are a bunch of 60+ senior developers sitting there occupying positions in the modern software industry? If so, they must have been damn lucky not needing to look for work after they hit 45 or so... Or, are they doing stuff "nobody in their right mind" would be interested in doing, like Cobol or Fortran?

I'm not talking about ICs, who are the grunts and sit at the bottom of the pyramid with little autonomy or budgetary discretion. I'm talking about the leadership and management of course.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#97
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a bunch of 60+ senior developers sitting there occupying positions in the modern software industry? If so, they must have been damn lucky not needing to look for work after they hit 45 or so... Or, are they doing stuff "nobody in their right mind" would be interested in doing, like Cobol or Fortran?

Most workers are not software developers. None of the people in the article were. The comment you were replying to didn't mention devs. Unpopular opinion: Silicon Valley is not the center of the universe.

No, but on HN it’s safe (appropriate?) to assume than the software/hardware biz is the primary field of endeavour.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#98
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This take only makes sense if you assume the next 40 years will be similar to the last 40.

They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?

Worsening of the climate crisis, +1.5 degrees C by 2040: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566801-climate...

My guess is a big war over resources will happen, e.g. https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-... . Worsening of the climate refugee crisis, even within the US itself, with people moving from flooded (due to sea-level rise) or dried parts or burning parts of the country to other parts. Dry or burning California also can't supply food, in 2010 Russia stopped exporting grains after big forest fires, and the rise of food prices pissed of many people and led to the Arab Spring.

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://mobilemonkey.com/articles/employee-tenure-in-tech-co... Here’s How Long Employees Are Staying AT The 10 Biggest Companies in Tech: Facebook – 2.02 Years Google – 1.90 Years Oracle – 1.89 Years Apple – 1.85 Years Amazon – 1.84 Years

That is misleading. If a company is high growth, their median tenure is going to be low.

The article mentions leaving, suggesting that it does not inlcude employees currently employed

Re: More Americans are considering retirement

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that professional software developers will have their negotiating power depleted is preposterous. Barring an AGI that can take care of knowledge work, companies will continue to pay a premium to developers because they are often times the core value creators of the business. Even in traditional areas like finance, quants with CS PhDs are displacing Harvard MBA’s trading on fundamentals b/c their returns blow…

There's a difference between "software developers" and "FAANG software developer" though, which is a source of great cognitive dissonance when people see that industry averages are only slightly above $100k/year but FAANG compensation is like 3-4 times that for basic engineering work. Both are paid a premium, but FAANG is paid a massive premium, and there isn't much precedent for collecting that massive premium conti…

Lotta software developers out there at non-FAANG companies getting paid FAANG or near-FAANG wages. Probably more software engineers making 250k+ outside of those five companies than inside them.

Also I kinda question the assertion that these companies being active and important in thirty years would suggest something untoward. In most other industries, the "Blue Chip" companies are pretty durable. JPM's lineage goes back to 1871, and that fact does not prevent its current employees from being well-compensated.

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