Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#691

Post by hyperpallium2 » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

If there was a run on toilet paper, wouldn't there be a run on masks?

But seems securing masks for hospital use - compulsory acquisition or paying above market rates - would be a better solution.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#692

Post by gojomo » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:35 AM UTC

krainboltgreene wrote: post #611

gojomo wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By... getting vaxed himself? Why aren't the vax campaigns leading with Trump's action – and his repeated verbal endorsement of choosing to get vaxed – to overcome resistance in his followers? Such over-focus on Trump is a pathological scapegoating to deflect responsibility on the part of both the professional permanent bureacracies, and the current administration. Trump did awfully, yes. But the mistrust & errors spr…

> Why aren't the vax campaigns leading with Trump's action – and his repeated verbal endorsement of choosing to get vaxed – to overcome resistance in his followers? If you go to trump community sites you'll find out that: 1. They think he's an idiot for taking the vax 2. They think he was threatened to taking it 3. He didn't really take it

Interesting. But if they're that persistently delusional, even when Trump's actions & words are contrary to their beliefs, are their actions "entirely due" to Trump?

The phenomena you describe suggest it's bigger & deeper than any devotion given him. (Is it even fair to call them "Trump community sites" at that point?)

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#693

Post by raxxorrax » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:37 AM UTC

nuerow wrote: post #646

throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/

If anything, the Herman Cain Award is a place to vent frustration about the wave of reckless and irresponsible behavior perpetrated by a largely uninformed/disinformed segment of the population which happens to also be highly vocal and even militant regarding their personal ill-informed beliefs. The Herman Cain Award focuses mainly on reporting cases of individuals who are eggregiously contrarian and even hostile in…

That is a lot of rationalization you had to go through for that judgement. I think it is a ridiculous excuse.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#694

Post by raxxorrax » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:41 AM UTC

titzer wrote: post #468

cjsplat wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was never data that said "masks don't work for the public" Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public. For example, https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... And there are many others - that was just an easy one I found today. Some similar studies even showed an increase in flu transmission among the subject population wearing masks. There were plenty o…

IMHO it was just a stupid call, because in the face of conflicting data, it would have been a better default option to recommend masks. That's easier to walk back than "oops, we were lying because we don't trust you rubes enough not to hoard, even when explicitly instructed not to hoard." In the beginning of the pandemic I, with effectively zero sewing skills, made a cloth mask out of spare clothing. They could have…

I agree that it was stupid to take that route. You could always say it was a precautionary measure if effectiveness is low (it is for most masks). Although there is a limit on what you can propose here and it might cause a backlash if you do that too often and may affect future and more efficient measures.

But err on the side of caution for a new form of virus isn't that hard to convey. It was the hobby enforcers of rules that did the most damage in my opinion, with badly sourced data. People should focus to adjust their own behavior accordingly instead of that of others.

If supply for masks was critical, this should be communicated as well. There would be a run on masks, but it shouldn't be a problem to set aside contingency supplies for hospitals. This is what they should have focused on.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#695

Post by roenxi » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:44 AM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #617

kcplate wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Closing borders is racist. Two weeks to flatten the curve. Don’t mask. Mask. Stay Inside. Trump didn’t close the borders fast enough! Double mask. Protest crowds are not superspreaders. Trump Rallies are superspreaders. School is dangerous, distance learning is good. Go outside, inside is bad. Dems-don’t trust Trump Vaccines. Biden/Pelosi - we can’t mandate vaccination. Dems-you must trust our vaccines, they are effe…

Ya, people who have problems with dynamic situations (e.g. best practices continually changing via new information coming in) have had real problems with this pandemic. They wanted a static stable unchanging story from the onset, and were very disappointed and anxious when they didn't get that. But everything you’ve written above is simply condemning authorities because they didn’t have the best solution from the ons…

If we have a dynamic situation, why is it necessary at every step of the way for governments to arbitrarily ban things and then mandate them? Could they not just offer strongly worded advice in line with their levels of confidence?

It is still unclear - and will remain so for some time - if the lockdowns and knee jerk emergency measures were worth the cost.The economic ripple effects have started to appear and we'll have to see how bad it gets.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#696

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:44 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #384

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you go to the CDC website about the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine,[1] there's a banner at the top of the page about myocarditis. Later down the page, there are sections titled "Who Should Get Vaccinated," "Who Should NOT Get Vaccinated" and "Possible Side Effects." None of this has been covered up. I don't think the public health authorities are to blame here. I would blame the politicians and media figures who have dis…

OK, but also blame the politicians who are all "Thou Shalt Vax". Telling people "this can cause myocarditis, and here's the people who should not get it" is telling people the truth. But that and a vaccine mandate cannot coexist without people rebelling against the mandate (which is in fact happening). Part of telling people the truth is letting them decide what to do with the information. "Here, I'm trusting you wit…

The problem is that public health measures require participation from the entire community. Extreme individualism prevents rational public health policy, and becomes antisocial at some point. Unless someone has a medical reason not to get vaccinated, they should get vaccinated, as part of their responsibility to the people they live around.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#697

Post by ameminator » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #412

cat_plus_plus wrote: post #356

How about the biggest dishonesty - lack of admission that not everyone is at the same risk and that lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society? Young children are not getting critical development years back. Healthy 20 somethings only have limited time to date, party and have fun before being saddled with adult responsibilities forever. Most of shattered local businesses ar…

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

I really liked the Chinese policy of welding people in their homes (where some starved to death) and lying to the populace about the real numbers and severity of the coronavirus.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#698

Post by raxxorrax » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

laurent92 wrote: post #663

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

But I have a question: Why did all governments have exactly the same behavior? Was there a handbook saying “talk to your citizen like dumb children” that was somehow mandatory reading before purchasing the vaccine? Why the coordinated action? Erratic behavior doesn’t explain it to me — it was far from random, all particles went the same way.

> Why the coordinated action?

In politics, if you do the same as other countries, you have a lot of support to justify said action without much effort. If you do it like Sweden you are bombarded with criticism. So the easy option is to copy from your neighbor.

Especially in times when the press tends to shield their favorite candidates from accountability. You don't even need to defend yourself, others do that for you.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#699

Post by nuerow » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:56 AM UTC

raxxorrax wrote: post #693

nuerow wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything, the Herman Cain Award is a place to vent frustration about the wave of reckless and irresponsible behavior perpetrated by a largely uninformed/disinformed segment of the population which happens to also be highly vocal and even militant regarding their personal ill-informed beliefs. The Herman Cain Award focuses mainly on reporting cases of individuals who are eggregiously contrarian and even hostile in…

That is a lot of rationalization you had to go through for that judgement. I think it is a ridiculous excuse.

> That is a lot of rationalization you had to go through for that judgement. I think it is a ridiculous excuse.

You need to be deep in denial and very disingenuous to refute the nature of /r/HermanCainAward or even /r/LeopardsAteMyFace.

You're talking about a very niche subreddit which is dedicated to posts on radical and very vocal anti-mask/anti-vax/Covid-hoax militants views who, after a long and well documented presence on social media pushing their propaganda, end up being admitted to hospital due to covid, and in some cases even dying, from the very same issue they've been actively rejecting denying and attacking all who did not.

This is the sort of militancy that gets people killed and directly contributed to worsening the effects of the pandemic, not only it's spread but also the indirect impact of having to contain new waves and having hospitals over capacity. This blend of radical anti-intellectual militancy hurts people all around.

Pointing the spotlight onto these cases, where vocal militants experience the expected consequences of their actions, provides a decisive contribution to educate the public on where exactly where the disinformation ends and reality starts.

It takes a very disingenuous and dishonest spin to try to make this about deaths or judgement.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#700

Post by native_samples » Wed, Oct 13, 2021, 7:58 AM UTC

SkyMarshal wrote: post #573

cjsplat wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was never data that said "masks don't work for the public" Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public. For example, https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... And there are many others - that was just an easy one I found today. Some similar studies even showed an increase in flu transmission among the subject population wearing masks. There were plenty o…

> Actually there was plenty of data saying that masks don't work for the public. ... (a year of arguing and studies ensues while a pandemic of a new and not-well-understood virus spreads out of control) ... > The new data was that ... even modest mask technology is a good source transmission interrupter, and that the contagion window is well in advance of active symptoms. A wasted year and all that rigamarole just to…

No, actually, there's still no data that mask mandates work. You can simply look at case graphs for different countries, and try to figure out when mandates were added or removed. It can't be done, although introducing changes to the case curves big enough to notice was the only justification for the policy. Given the short serial interval any mandates should have made a clear and obvious impact on case numbers within days, but that never happened.

"we have to spend a year doing studies to figure out what a little back-of-the-napkin risk analysis shows"

Both risk analysis and the studies proved wrong. The real world data is the ground truth here, because that's what the policies were designed to affect.