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Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

nature.com

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Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#381
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

This matches a lot of my own experience in trying to convince people to take reasonable precautions and get vaccinated. And I was one of the first in line for my age group in my state. You have to do things to build trust first, and you have to be willing to admit that some of the measures taken are farcical and have no basis in science. People will listen to a reasonable, nuanced discussion. They won't listen to som…

'just follow the rules'... that's exactly how we get the blind unreasonableness we're seeing everywhere. you need to examine your assumption that masks are doing anything at all in most common situations, and then consider what's actually reasonable vs. what you've rationalized yourself into.

humility is missing in your thrust to convince others of your correctness.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#382

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

I can't speak to what politicians were saying, but I heard a number of virologists and epidemiologists saying that "masks weren't necessary" because 1) convincing most people to use them consistently and correctly is very difficult, and 2) because it was thought that the virus was spread only by symptomatic individuals, who produce larger droplets by coughing or sneezing and which transmit the disease through contact with contaminated surfaces or by close proximity (hence, social distancing).

"Then there is the infamous mask issue. Epidemiologists have taken a lot of heat on this question in particular. Until well into March 2020, I was skeptical about the benefit of everyone wearing face masks. That skepticism was based on previous scientific research as well as hypotheses about how covid was transmitted that turned out to be wrong. Mask-wearing has been a common practice in Asia for decades, to protect against air pollution and to prevent transmitting infection to others when sick. Mask-wearing for protection against catching an infection became widespread in Asia following the 2003 SARS outbreak, but scientific evidence on the effectiveness of this strategy was limited.

"Before the coronavirus pandemic, most research on face masks for respiratory diseases came from two types of studies: clinical settings with very sick patients, and community settings during normal flu seasons. In clinical settings, it was clear that well-fitting, high-quality face masks, such as the N95 variety, were important protective equipment for doctors and nurses against viruses that can be transmitted via droplets or smaller aerosol particles. But these studies also suggested careful training was required to ensure that masks didn’t get contaminated when surface transmission was possible, as is the case with SARS. Community-level evidence about mask-wearing was much less compelling. Most studies showed little to no benefit to mask-wearing in the case of the flu, for instance. Studies that have suggested a benefit of mask-wearing were generally those in which people with symptoms wore masks — so that was the advice I embraced for the coronavirus, too.

"I also, like many other epidemiologists, overestimated how readily the novel coronavirus would spread on surfaces — and this affected our view of masks. Early data showed that, like SARS, the coronavirus could persist on surfaces for hours to days, and so I was initially concerned that face masks, especially ill-fitting, homemade or carelessly worn coverings could become contaminated with transmissible virus. In fact, I worried that this might mean wearing face masks could be worse than not wearing them. This was wrong. Surface transmission, it emerged, is not that big a problem for covid, but transmission through air via aerosols is a big source of transmission. And so it turns out that face masks do work in this case.

"I changed my mind on masks in March 2020, as testing capacity increased and it became clear how common asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection were (since aerosols were the likely vector). I wish that I and others had caught on sooner — and better testing early on might have caused an earlier revision of views — but there was no bad faith involved."

"I’m an epidemiologist. Here’s what I got wrong about covid."(https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/04/20/epidemiolo...)

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big problem is what to do when "Be Right" is vague because information is poor and you're dealing with a society where black and white thinking is rampant. Combined with a largely complete lack of understanding of the actual messiness of the scientific method.

It's as easy as saying "X seems like the best bet, because Y, but we need more evidence (which we'll get via Z around time T) to be certain".

The problem is that a good chunk of society views science as it should be infallible and its a failure if its not. And scientists tend to default to "50-50" kinds of language when they're dealing with uncertainty, and tend to overly emphasize uncertainty.

I'd kind of like to see science communicators start talking in the language of sports betting when it comes to uncertainty instead.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, see, people don't work that way. If you say that the risk of dying from Covid is 1%, and the risk from the vaccine is 0.001%, (at least some) people can look at those numbers and figure out what's reasonable to do. But if you say that the risk from Covid is 1% and the vaccine is "safe", then people think you mean the risk from the vaccine is 0, and they say, "You're lying; my cousin's co-worker's nephew got sick…

If you go to the CDC website about the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine,[1] there's a banner at the top of the page about myocarditis. Later down the page, there are sections titled "Who Should Get Vaccinated," "Who Should NOT Get Vaccinated" and "Possible Side Effects." None of this has been covered up. I don't think the public health authorities are to blame here. I would blame the politicians and media figures who have dis…

OK, but also blame the politicians who are all "Thou Shalt Vax".

Telling people "this can cause myocarditis, and here's the people who should not get it" is telling people the truth. But that and a vaccine mandate cannot coexist without people rebelling against the mandate (which is in fact happening).

Part of telling people the truth is letting them decide what to do with the information. "Here, I'm trusting you with the truth, now you have to decide the way I think you should" doesn't fly, especially when the truth is a mixed bag. ("Who should not get vaccinated" tells you that the truth is in fact a mixed bag.)

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#385
post #121
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it prevents the next Iraq war and the next Japanese internment, I'm all for it. How would it do that? Government didn't asked people about either of those. And if anything the people responsible for Iraq war will benefit from antivaxers votes.

Seriously. The vendiagram of people who would be for interment of a minority they distrust or a war for retribution, and the people currently rallying against mask/vaccine's would almost be a perfect circle.

I think that Venn diagram may have shifted a fair amount lately, partly because of increasing skepticism towards the government on the political right. When the government begins to portray you as the enemy, it makes you think twice about its depiction of others.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in the US have become very good at totally ignoring the argument and just tribalizing the approach to everything. X must be right and how dare you question them as they are part of us. Nothing can be nuanced anymore. Read a twitter thread this morning discussing a father whose daughter was raped in a high school bathroom and then the perpetrator who they did not really make clear if it was someone that was tra…

My interpretation is the the life in the US has been so good that Americans could never imagine what it was like living in 1950's Cuba, 1960's China, 1970's Cambodia, and North Korea. Do people really think that people in those countries were evil or were crazy? The truth is, the people there started with good intentions. They wanted to have equity. They were pained by all kinds of oppression. They genuinely believed…

US has just started on that path with the passage of laws incentivizing you monetarily to turn in your neighbor for undesirable behavior.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#387

I agree with the sentiment of this article, but I'm noticing that some folks can't determine fact from fiction even when presented with data that supports the facts or makes them irrefutable. No amount of logic, facts, or transparency will be enough for these folks, and while I can appreciate a skeptic, some of these people are beyond basic help and need professional guidance.

I think in the US our situation was pretty dire from the start in regards to misinformation: the president and his staff were saying a ton of crazy crap from day one, from denial, to downplaying to telling people to effectively drink bleach. Pretty clear cut why we have trust issues right now and people denying any information about Covid at all. I mean the article raises great points, but the US hasn't had that prob…

It's ironic that you seem to be a victim of misinformation yourself. Trump never came close to telling people to drink bleach. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020...

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Censorship is not what causes large numbers of US citizens to refuse this vaccine. If the Republicans in leadership positions took this seriously from the start and did not go around casting doubt on vaccination far more people would get the vaccine. If the previous president had not politicized the response to COVID and had simply told his followers to do what the CDC says we would have many millions more people get…

Go back a year and see who was saying the vaccine was not safe. Explicitly saying you don't trust the vaccine because your political opponent was president when it was created is political plain and simple.

When your political opponent is an unintelligent charlatan who can’t speak two words without spouting a lie, then perhaps some caution would be warranted where public health is concerned.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't have to be rational. Vaccines mandates are already common for school children, nurses, (and maybe teachers, but I'm not sure about that one) The rage over masks (and things like "CRT") is being intentionally stoked to win elections. The plan is to make it an us vs them issue. Again, it's intentional and cynical. If you stoke rage about mask wearing (and vaccines) you can position yourself as also being a v…

>It doesn't have to be rational. Vaccines mandates are already common for school children, nurses, (and maybe teachers, but I'm not sure about that one) Even this argument ignores nuance. The vaccines in these schedules are mandated for 2 reasons 1. The diseases they treat directly impact their population in a major way in large numbers 2. Immunization not only prevents the negatives impacts of 1, but also prevent th…

There's something horribly wrong with your link [3].

"The first study saw a drop of 78%, and the second 41%, in infectiousness — with the large difference in numbers perhaps explained by the fact that the estimates are based on a very small number of vaccinated people who were infected and then infected others. ... The results correspond well with studies conducted elsewhere. One analysis3 of some 365,000 households in the United Kingdom, published on 23 June, estimated that individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were 40–50% less likely to spread the infection if they had received at least one dose of the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine or that developed by the University of Oxford, UK, and pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, based in Cambridge, UK, at least three weeks previously. A study4 from Finland, posted as a preprint on 10 July, found that spouses of infected health-care workers who had received a single dose of the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine or that produced by Moderna in Cambridge, Massachusetts, were 43% less likely to get infected than were spouses of unvaccinated health workers." (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z)

"The study shows that people who become infected with the Delta variant are less likely to pass the virus to their close contacts if they have already had a COVID-19 vaccine than if they haven’t1. But that protective effect is relatively small, and dwindles alarmingly at three months after the receipt of the second shot. ... Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus." (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y)

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really think this will go down as The Big Mistake that lost the public's trust in the US and made compliance for every subsequent measure difficult to sell, and opened the door to nutters.

This is a pretty privileged viewpoint imo. This one small thing lost the public's trust? Not the fact that cops used to pull me over for no reason because I lived in a poor neighborhood? Not the fact that my family member's lives were ruined because of tiny drug-related infractions? Not the fact that we went on a pointless 20+ year war for no reason (just the one within my lifetime)? Really. Wearing a mask is the bre…

Pretty sure it's not the only one, it's just the most visible one (the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak). There are tons of other examples above (turning down the music in gyms etc), just not talked about as much. You are reminded about those absurd, knee-jerk reactions when you look at masks (unfortunate given that of all the measures, masks seem to atleast do something).
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