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Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

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Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#81

Post by kyrra »

WSJ has a commentary piece in today's paper that is similar but also important. The jist I get out of it is that science is ever evolving and there is no "trust the science", as it just gives us data and is not an absolute truth. Science can provide varying levels of certainty on given part of a subject, but running around and invoking science for policy decisions is a bad plan when there isn't solid data backing it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/partisan-science-antiscience-fa...

Mirror: https://archive.is/GwRw1

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#82

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-...

The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effectiveness of masks by the public (although there was some evidence with earlier respiratory infections that mask use by the public is beneficial).

But instead of just saying that, the message from the vast majority of public health officials (and media types like Sanjay Gupta) was that "masks don't work for the public". It's not hard to go back to March 2020 and find lots of videos to this effect. This all spectacularly backfired a couple months later when health officials told everyone to wear masks.

And what made me slightly angry was that many officials tried to say something like "well, we have new data now". Which was somewhat true, but also conveniently swept over the fact that there was never data that said "masks don't work for the public", but health officials didn't have a problem saying that in public earlier.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#83

Post by rob_c »

bastardoperator wrote: post #11

I agree with the sentiment of this article, but I'm noticing that some folks can't determine fact from fiction even when presented with data that supports the facts or makes them irrefutable. No amount of logic, facts, or transparency will be enough for these folks, and while I can appreciate a skeptic, some of these people are beyond basic help and need professional guidance.

It doesn't help when politicians are lying or lying by omission. At that point those who don't know better don't know where to turn for information.

The UK has branded the official death stats as misinformation numerous times in the press and interviews to avoid getting into details of how they screwed up in response to all this...

It's not always the fault of those led astray and I'm sure there's a suitable parable about a bad shepherd or something...

Someone believing untruths is different to the nutters burning down 5G masts mind, but yes I worry about when misinformation reaches critical mass...

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#84

Post by HPsquared »

zarkov99 wrote: post #43
colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

It is hard to understate the damage. The loss of national cohesion, the exacerbated division caused by the "choose your own reality" consequences of no longer having trustworthy institutions. And maybe worse of all, the self-fulfilling nature of distrust. When you do not trust someone, and they know it, they have no incentive to behave in a trust-worthy manner. It will take a long time to dig the country's self-image…

See "The Evolution of Trust" which was posted on HN a few times, simulating how trust is created and destroyed, with reference to game theory. I don't think it covers institutional trust, but is interesting nonetheless:

https://ncase.me/trust/

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#85

Post by dehrmann »

Covzire wrote: post #71
dehrmann wrote: post #55

Fauci (and the CDC) lying about masks out of fear it would cause a shortage for healthcare providers burnt a lot of trust quickly. It probably helped the US get into the polarized situation it's in now.

Fauci ostensibly being directly involved in the creation of COVID19 via gain of function research, and not seeing him prosecuted or at least fired is also keeping trust incredibly low. Everyone knows what the guy did, said and does and stands for. Every time he goes on CNN he sows distrust.

I won't go as far as him being prosecuted, but yes, he was uncomfortably involved in it, and didn't call out how bad of an idea it is. Edit: Biden should have fired him when he became president ostensibly for lying, but actually because he's a polarizing figure who makes too many TV appearances. It doesn't matter that he's saying the right thing about the vaccines, when 40% of people don't trust him, he's the wrong messenger.

When the tech industry does a lot of self-reflection on what harm could come from various forms of AI, I'm honestly shocked that biologists are modifying viruses in ways that could be so disruptive (at best) that are just a few mistakes away from a pandemic.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#86

Post by Izkata »

betterunix2 wrote: post #68
sto_hristo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such pandemics don't start every other year. Last great one was 100 years ago. So i wouldn't worry at all for the "winners", there's plenty of time for generations to refresh. Worry about government's inability to learn and improve based on past mistakes, also complacency. It's not hard to imagine 100 years from now, popular presidential guy spearheading the next great pandemic, calming the subjects down with the gre…

...are you not counting HIV as a recent major pandemic? SARS? MERS? It is also worth remembering that for decades we have been carefully monitoring the spread of infectious diseases to prevent major pandemics from forming. There was no political controversy surrounding those efforts prior to COVID19, not in the US or anywhere else.

SARS and MERS never reached pandemic status. Swine flu in 2009 did though, and Avian flu seemed like it was going to in 2012 but also fell short.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#87

Post by mmmpop »

MattGaiser wrote: post #72
mmmpop wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels like a game of political chicken to me. Like, "if you won't trust the voting public enough to give them the whole truth and instead treat them like blubbering fools, how can you--with a straight face--pretend that their ability to pick leaders or vote on actual issues is a correct way to run a country?" So instead of compliance, they'll bring the whole damn thing down in protest. I don't think the plurality…

> how can you--with a straight face--pretend that their ability to pick leaders or vote on actual issues is a correct way to run a country?" By arguing that the other options are worse. Democracy and the separation of powers do not result in great decision making. But it also serves as a significant barrier against absolutely horrible decision making, placing it above the other choices.

What separation of power? The country is run by executive fiat and every 4 years the law of the land takes an about face when the next guy comes along to rip up the old guy's diktats. The US legislative branch is kabuki theater and the judicial branch is disgustingly partisan.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#89

Post by gojomo »

dehrmann wrote: post #55

Fauci (and the CDC) lying about masks out of fear it would cause a shortage for healthcare providers burnt a lot of trust quickly. It probably helped the US get into the polarized situation it's in now.

Also Fauci in early March 2020 mocking the idea of people changing their travel plans as an overreaction.

Also Fauci shooting-down lab-origin theories in public, while his private emails – still heavily redacted! – imply contemporaneous discussion of such an origin as a serious possibility.

Also Fauci misestimating a vaccine as at least a year and half away.

Also Fauci helping to fluff Trump's lowball estimates of the pandemic ending by summer 2020 with "more like the 60k" dead. (Only off by 12x, and still growing!)

Also Fauci overclaiming the rushed EUA 3wk/4wk mRNA vax dose spacings as 'optimal' & important not-to-delay... when precedent from other vaccines was that 8wks or longer is better for stronger & more durable immunity. (Data from other countries with wiser spacing has now confirmed, as true experts would have expected, that longer spacing is better. So the insistence of Fauci/CDC on rushed 2nd doses now leaving vaccinated Americans with more, and more severe, breakthrough infections.)

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