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Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

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Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#401
post #382

Seems there is a (very large) market for a legit version of Tether. What's stopping some other company from doing what Tether does with more traditional commercial paper / US based short term loans / govt. bonds / etc.?

Why not use more traditional commercial paper / US based short term loans / govt. bonds / etc. directly then? I mean you can rephrase it but you quickly end up with reinventing the wheel - an old, established, well-regulated, secured and guaranteed wheel. If you want fiat currency, use fiat currency. If you want a secure location to store and transfer your money, use a bank. If you want to support a dodgy organizatio…

> Why not use more traditional commercial paper / US based short term loans / govt. bonds / etc. directly then?

None of those can be sent to anyone in the world and settled in minutes/hours.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#402

If you're interested in Tether, I highly recommend the Crypto Critics' Corner podcast: https://cryptocriticscorner.com/episode-list/ . Bennet Tomlin and Cas Piancey have done a fantastic job chronicling the story. Their blog posts are also quite good: - https://thecaspiancey.medium.com/finding-finex-3eefac0d45a2 - https://bennettftomlin.com/

Was coming here to say this. Bennett and Cas are well-informed and run a fabulous podcast, give deep dives on crypto history and its shady characters. If digging into True Financial Crime is your thing, with lots of “wait, that CAN’T be true, that character/event sounds TOO crazy” entertainment, this podcast is for you.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#403
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s such an insane, non-GAAP way to value fixed income securities. Almost boggles the mind

It really is. I wish more was made of it. No one has asked Tether to comment publicly, that I know of. It’s a loophole you can drive a truck through.

wen mark-to-market?

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I keep waiting for Yakety Sax to start playing, but to the true believers, it never does, and apparently all us nay-sayers are just neanderthal and don't see "the vision". It reminds me of the initial dot-com bubble, where anybody who asked questions was also painted as not getting it. Ditto the mortgage bubble, come to think of it. Then when the inevitable crash comes, nobody apologizes. It's either "who could hav…

I don't think that's fair, these concerns have been around for probably five years plus and get a lot of media attention. As someone invested in this area it does get a bit old and counter productive being scared of the various boogie mens while missing all the enormous upside so far. After all, tether is 3% of total market cap, I think it's fair to say the effect if they disappeared tomorrow would be a bit bigger th…

Market cap is a meaningless metric to use here. How many actual dollars are invested into cryptos? When it is revealed that 1 USDT != 1 USD there will be a rush to the exits and you will be begging and praying for only a 40% drawdown.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#405
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I keep waiting for Yakety Sax to start playing, but to the true believers, it never does, and apparently all us nay-sayers are just neanderthal and don't see "the vision". It reminds me of the initial dot-com bubble, where anybody who asked questions was also painted as not getting it. Ditto the mortgage bubble, come to think of it. Then when the inevitable crash comes, nobody apologizes. It's either "who could hav…

I’ve seen this happen in companies with stupid projects. Same thing happened with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Anyone who dares ask questions is ignored, sidelined, or fired. Seems to be a general pattern when there is an economic or policy “bubble” and big players in an organization or sector are holding the bag. Everyone who holds cryptocurrency is holding Tether’s bag of poo. No they are not even the majority of…

> Everyone who holds cryptocurrency is holding Tether’s bag of poo

Everyone who holds Tether is holding Tether’s bag. If you don’t own tether, this doesn’t directly affect you. Most of the people I know don’t own (and have never owned) Tether.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#407
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant question is whether the peg can be broken long enough for the loan to get margin called (by someone else exploiting the smartcontract to liquidate collateral). Lasting for the length of a flash loan isn’t enough.

I suppose that's true, but are you confident that's not possible? I'm not but as you can probably tell I'm pretty skeptical :)

Flash loans have to be paid back in the same block or everything the flash loan funded reverts. And to ensure this happens, it usually is all wrapped up on the same transaction bundle.

But liquidations are only triggered on oracle updates. And those happen at fixed intervals (measured in time or price movement), and can only happen a block at a time, in blocks after the flash loan has been closed.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I keep waiting for Yakety Sax to start playing, but to the true believers, it never does, and apparently all us nay-sayers are just neanderthal and don't see "the vision". It reminds me of the initial dot-com bubble, where anybody who asked questions was also painted as not getting it. Ditto the mortgage bubble, come to think of it. Then when the inevitable crash comes, nobody apologizes. It's either "who could hav…

I don't think that's fair, these concerns have been around for probably five years plus and get a lot of media attention. As someone invested in this area it does get a bit old and counter productive being scared of the various boogie mens while missing all the enormous upside so far. After all, tether is 3% of total market cap, I think it's fair to say the effect if they disappeared tomorrow would be a bit bigger th…

The most serious argument is that the “enormous upside” is being driven by Tether fraud. Take some money off the table…

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Circle [0] and Coinbase [1] have recently reported that they are shifting their USDC reserves fully into short-term liquid assets. Given that both Circle and Coinbase are US-regulated, and given the attention being paid to stablecoins specifically by US regulators right now, USDC is probably the safest on-chain asset that currently exists (assuming that you consider USD itself to be a safe asset to hold). [0] https:/…

Domiciled is probably a better term than "regulated" for USDC. To quote their homepage disclosures box: > Digital asset markets and exchanges are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available with other forms of financial products and are subject to an evolving regulatory environment. Digital assets do not typically have legal tender status and are not covered by deposit protection insurance.…

> that can mean as little as "pay us a few thousand dollars and we'll ignore you."

This is simply not the case. Most, if not all, state money transfer regulations mandate financial reporting to the state, and place limitations on the permissible investments that a licensed entity may hold as backing for customer obligations held in trust. Any failure to comply will result in fines and/or loss of the license (which effectively results in the closure of the money transmission business).

A number of states (California and New York among them) also conduct on-site examinations of licensees' businesses (paid for by the licensed entity). As someone who was has served as a senior executive at a company that undergoes these examinations regularly, I can assure you that they tend to be rigorous and all-encompassing.

> This regulatory framework was created as a way of side-stepping the more onerous regulations that apply to real depository institutions.

This regulatory framework was not created as a way of sidestepping anything. It was created as a way to proactively regulate money transmission.

Money transmitters are not depository institutions; they serve a different, more narrow economic function, and existing regulations are properly tailored to that economic function. In practice that means that money transmitters are required to maintain 100% reserves backing any and all customer obligations, they must hold their reserves only in certain permissible investments (i.e. government debt and bank deposits), and they are required to obtain surety bonds to further insure those obligations.

Venmo, PayPal, Western Union, Money Gram and dozens of other companies are all subject to these requirements, and there has never been any instance that I am aware of where this regulatory arrangement has resulted in consumer funds being lost, in the twenty years since this regulatory regime began to be fully implemented after passage of the USA PATRIOT Act.

Furthermore, I am not seeing what the material difference is between the outstanding obligation represented by USDC and the outstanding obligation represented by a PayPal or a Venmo account. The fact that the law treats them the same is entirely appropriate.

Tether is a problem precisely because it is unlicensed and has thus far illegally evaded these regulations. The fact that Tether is operating illegally in the US should not impugn its competitors that are in fact operating legally.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this moment you can deposit defi borrowed usdt into Coinbase pro, swap it for usdc there, and then swap the usdc back to USD and withdraw to your bank account. Then if tether collapses you'd be able to pay back the borrowed usdt for pennies on the dollar.

The first step (borrowing usdt on a defi platform) needs you to collateralize that loan with some other form of cryptocurrency. You are forced to have exposure to crypto to make the trade that shorts it.

Have you ever seen the bit in a show (or, hell, been caught by a street hustler) where someone asks for help breaking a large bill, and then after a few rounds of confusion and money being handed back and forth walks away with everything?
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