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Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

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Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#301
post #46

"Solana, up 9,801% in 2021 for seemingly no reason at all" No reason at all, huh? Anybody with even a remote interest in crypto knows why Solana has exploded. It's L1 season and Solana is a direct competitor to ETH, which suffers from high usage fees. Every other L1 has exploded in value. As said, L1 season. These kind of statements make me suspect the author never used crypto in their life. The cultural gap between…

> It's L1 season You say this as if it’s a valid thesis outside of CT. Solana has exploded because Alameda, Cumberland and related VCs have made it so. > Young people are locked out of any and all assets. They can't afford real estate or any meaningful amount of stock. Savings accounts have a negative yield. Casually ignores Robinhood and equity markets, where most of any under 50s should have most of their wealth. F…

"Solana has exploded because Alameda, Cumberland and related VCs have made it so."

By building things of value in the ecosystem.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's trivially easy for anyone to short tether, simply take out a DeFi loan of tether backed by any other crypto collateral (including e.g. USDC so you don't have liquidation risk). It will just cost you a few % APR to keep the position open

No, this doesn’t work. You’re not short USDT/USD in the above which is what people really mean when they say short Tether (since we’re talking about losing the peg). You’re already short USDT anytime you buy crypto in USDT terms (i.e. BTC/USDT). But if Tether nukes, and you’re long BTC/USDT you will likely lose a lot of money, even if BTC/USDT goes to the moon. Why? Because BTC in terms of all other fiat (BTC/USD) wi…

> You’re already short USDT anytime you buy crypto in USDT terms (i.e. BTC/USDT

That doesn't make any sense. If I buy BTC with USD and then transfer it to an exchange with a BTC/USDT pair, I'm not suddenly "short USDT".

So I don't see why buying BTC with USDT directly makes me short USDT either if I didn't borrow the USDT but bought it with USD

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can do it directly on FTX I’m no expert, but wouldn’t this be unrealizable? If tether were to fall it’s not crazy to think it would take with it most exchanges, given how most of them use USDT for maintaining operations.

This just isn't really the case any longer. Crypto has matured a lot in the last few years. And if you're still regurgitating the same FUD from 2016 you're in for a big surprise.

> And if you're still regurgitating the same FUD from 2016 you're in for a big surprise.

I’ve just given up on crypto at this point. I’m a big proponent in “invest in things you can understand”, and crypto is a space where very little people really understand what’s going.

You can call that FUD if you want, but not acknowledging that crypto is a wild, wild west with a lot of shady corners, will set you up for a big reckoning at some point.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AAVE on polygon has 1B in ETH, 851M in Dai, 1B in USDC and only 215M in USDT. Why would AAVE blow up if USDT blows up?

Because the fiat valuations of ETH, DAI, USDC and all coins will tank if Tether implodes.

Why? USDC is backed by dollars and treasuries...

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#305
The thing that's always surprised me about Tether is the confidence people have in it without a fully transparent accounting being available of their collateral. Also they by their own admission in 2019 they only had 74% of the liabilities covered but people still seem to have confidence in them having 100% reserves. Collateral issues have been known since at least as far back as 2019: https://www.ccn.com/tether-lawyer-shocker-only-74-backed-by-...

Also: https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#306
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve missed something, but I’m not sure what. Nobody is lending us anything in the above example (well, Binance perps and CME futs have embedded leverage but that’s another story).

> You’ve missed something, but I’m not sure what. This is what I'm trying to figure out too. Basically, how do you buy $1m worth of BTC/USDT perps without depositing $1m of USD into Binance? Let's say if we put in $100k USD with a 1:10 leverage, it means the position on Binance is wiped out if BTC drops by more than 10%. So the only way for this to work is to deposit $1mil of USD into Binance and opening the position…

You will need to monitor your positions (both long and short) and transfer the margin accordingly between each account.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#307
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, this doesn’t work. You’re not short USDT/USD in the above which is what people really mean when they say short Tether (since we’re talking about losing the peg). You’re already short USDT anytime you buy crypto in USDT terms (i.e. BTC/USDT). But if Tether nukes, and you’re long BTC/USDT you will likely lose a lot of money, even if BTC/USDT goes to the moon. Why? Because BTC in terms of all other fiat (BTC/USD) wi…

> You’re already short USDT anytime you buy crypto in USDT terms (i.e. BTC/USDT That doesn't make any sense. If I buy BTC with USD and then transfer it to an exchange with a BTC/USDT pair, I'm not suddenly "short USDT". So I don't see why buying BTC with USDT directly makes me short USDT either if I didn't borrow the USDT but bought it with USD

> If I buy BTC with USD and then transfer it to an exchange with a BTC/USDT pair, I'm not suddenly "short USDT".

It does, it just doesn’t make you short against USD which is what you’re thinking of. It only makes you short vs. BTC which we expect to collapse in price as well. This is why you need the other leg.

> So I don't see why buying BTC with USDT directly makes me short USDT either if I didn't borrow the USDT but bought it with USD

Which is why I keep talking about margin and perpetual swaps. Since we expect to lose our shirt on Binance, we need a levered position which means borrowing the USDT which will ultimately become worthless. This borrowing happens implicitly in a swap or future.

Back to your first question, when you buy something, you’re going to denominate that in some unit of account. We usually write this price as saying asset A is $X or asset B is €Y. But in reality every market is two asset pairs, no different to FX or crypto. We could have talked in terms of A/USD being X or B/EUR being Y. It’s just a different convention.

So when we talk about (for instance) the price of AAPL stock, what we really mean is AAPL/USD. Or when we talk about the price of crude oil we really mean CL/USD. I am buying AAPL, selling USD. Or I am selling crude oil, buying dollars.

To illustrate let’s say that you’re long AAPL (AAPL/USD). If shortly after you buy AAPL, the dollar loses purchasing power versus all other currencies, net net we would expect AAPL to go up in price (otherwise known as inflation). It’s not that AAPL became more valuable, it’s that the USD became less valuable. So you’re implicitly short the dollar. You sell your AAPL, and pocket your profit. You could frame this as being short USD and then covering your short. Same thing.

The opposite also holds true. Let’s say you short AAPL (remember: AAPL/USD). This leaves you long USD. If the purchasing power of USD increases, ceteris paribus, the price of AAPL should fall (otherwise known as deflation). You cover your short, and pocket your profit. You can view that as being short AAPL and AAPL going down, or you can view that as being long USD and the dollar going up. It’s the same thing.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a ponzi per se. My guess is that they take the money from exchanges, mint more tokens at no cost to themselves and buy a bunch of junk bonds with high yields and pocket the 8% or whatever they make in those. Given their market cap that is a lot of money. They always use precise wording about their holdings “commercial paper”. I’m guessing it’s not US treasury bonds equivalents or they would say that explicit…

Commercial paper is not junk bonds, and is pretty standard for a money market fund to hold. It’s a pretty specific thing and doesn’t really deserve scare quotes.

Perhaps the "scare quotes" are because Tether can't get anyone reliable to certify their "commercial paper" actually exists.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The payout will be in a different stablecoin. USDC won't collapse with Tether.

Would you gamble your entire investment on that? If Tether collapses, there will be major outflows from all stablecoins, and we'll find out which ones have been swimming naked.

Circle [0] and Coinbase [1] have recently reported that they are shifting their USDC reserves fully into short-term liquid assets. Given that both Circle and Coinbase are US-regulated, and given the attention being paid to stablecoins specifically by US regulators right now, USDC is probably the safest on-chain asset that currently exists (assuming that you consider USD itself to be a safe asset to hold).

[0] https://www.circle.com/blog/evolving-usdc-reserves-to-100-ca...

[1] https://twitter.com/emiliemc/status/1429664322725158914?s=20

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