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Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

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141–150 of 407 posts

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#141
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of C19 fatalities under 30 in the US appears to easily exceed the number of vaccine-related myocarditis cases. The overwhelming majority of those myocarditis cases followed a benign course. Later Another thing to consider is that the myocarditis rate from C19 itself may exceed that of the vaccine, which would basically refute the argument against vaccination. (By all means, pick vaccines strategically.)

That number for under 30’s is full of people who are extremely fat or otherwise have preexisting health problems. If you’re under 30 and seemingly healthy your fatality rate is much lower.

40% of Americans are obese. States with the highest level of obesity also have the lowest rate of vaccination.

An even higher number has a very poor idea of the state of their health. Never assume you're healthy.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#142
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine But the risk of getting COVID in any time period is less than 1 (based on % of population that has actually had it, possibly less than 0.1 or 10% per year), so it's worth waiting for the safest vaccine for certain groups.

44.1M verified cases in the out of 329.5M ~= 13%, and that's with verified cases, so it's likely much higher. My guess is younger people are even more likely to get it given their lifestyle is highly social at that age, and risk tolerance is similarly high. Given it's not slowing down, the likelihood of getting covid is actually quite high over time.

These are US numbers, though. Norway, e.g., has tested like crazy and diagnosed 4% of its population with covid throughout the pandemic. Given that the US numbers for covid cases are at least three times higher, the risk assessment will necessarily be different.

The Scandinavian solution will likely be to just delay vaccination for a week while a dose of the Pfeizer vaccine is tracked down. The change of contracting covid in that timeframe is very small.

These ethical considerations are necessarily local.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#143
post #137

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

>And yet we think we got this mRNA/Adenovirus vector formula right on the first try times 3 different brands with 2 years of reduced trials? Actually mRNA vaccines/tech been in development and trials for a long time (decades). What was done in last year is to encode specific mRNA and trial it. Not the entire "envelope". Nice historical overview: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02483-w

> Actually mRNA vaccines/tech been in development and trials for a long time (decades).

Obviously the parent was not referring to the entire development history of mRNA tech, any more than one would include the initial work on inventing the internal combustion engine when talking about how much safety testing had been carried out for a new model car.

The usual safety trials were not carried out for these vaccines, full stop.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#144
post #137

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

>And yet we think we got this mRNA/Adenovirus vector formula right on the first try times 3 different brands with 2 years of reduced trials? Actually mRNA vaccines/tech been in development and trials for a long time (decades). What was done in last year is to encode specific mRNA and trial it. Not the entire "envelope". Nice historical overview: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02483-w

That article says an mRNA vaccine for influenza was in clinical trials in 2015, but it never made it to market. What happened to it?

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#145
post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. For example, the 0.89% population hospitalization rate in the last 1.5 years for the unvaccinated from the article you linked corresponds to a 38% chance of hospitalization o…

>> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated?

> Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk.

In this specific case the timeframe is not relevant. The metric here was "probability that you will be hospitalized IF you are infected with COVID-19". That means the timeline is "however long it takes to get better from Covid". Adding "lifetime risk" to that doesn't make sense, and "daily risk" makes even less sense (for example, someone who is sick for 130 days, is admitted to a hospital, and dies, would be counted as adding 1 "positive day" and 129 "negative days", making it an awful metric).

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#146
post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

I think I'm missing your point. This article is talking about the relative risk of developing myocarditis, but you are talking about the risk of hospitalization from COVID. Wouldn't the correct comparison be to look at the risk of myocarditis after catching COVID? Or going the other way, shouldn't we be comparing the risk of hospitalization due to COVID (if unvaccinated) to that of hospitalization after receiving the…

The real ethical tradeoff is "what's your chance of contracting covid and getting complications in the one-week delay between cancelling your Moderna appointment and getting the Pfeizer vaccine instead" vs. "what's the chance of getting myocarditis from side effects of the Moderna vaccine".

Seems like most people in this thread hear "Scandinavian authorities are stopping the vaccination program", when the recommendation is rather to switch vaccines for men under a certain age.

The ethical consideration is not particularly complicated, and Scandinavian health authorities are not risk-averse idiots. They simply care about an equation that might lead to a couple of saved lives in total. I think this level of care speaks highly of the intentions of the healthcare systems in Scandinavia.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#147

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

> The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly ...

There are many problems. That's not one of them. Here is a better list of problems:

1. People don't understand what "research" means. Hint: watching a Youtube video with no peer-reviewed research is not "research";

2. People fundamentally don't understand and assess risk correctly. This long predates the anti-vaxxer hyseria. It's why, for example, people are afraid to fly but not (usually) afraid to drive when the chances of dying while driving are significantly higher;

3. We've had 700,000 deaths of Covid-19 in the US. According to the CDC, 1% of those are for people aged under 30. It's also likely the Covid deaths are underreported (eg New York not attributing nursing home deaths to Covid last year) but let's take the conservative view. That's 7,000 Americans under 30 who have died from Covid. Roughly 120M/330M people are under 30 so that puts the death rate at roughly 6 per 100,000 people. Even the most pessimistic view of negative side effects of vaccines rooted in reality is significantly less than that. Thus the correct risk response is to take the vaccine;

4. I've long held the view that climate change won't be fixed by collective altruism. The only option (IMHO) is for the solution to be economic. Covid has done nothing but confirm this for me. Climate change involves massive collective cost and inconvenience. Taking a vaccine involves the mildest inconvenience and, at best, one in a million odds of serious negative results yet people won't even do that.

5. The deep-rooted idea that unfettered selfishness if a virtue combined with anti-intellectualism is a pervasive and dangerous problem.

6. This idea that the whole world is in on this conspiracy to hide the truth is farcical narcissism. Occam's Razor tells you this is wrong. People just aren't competent enough to keep secrets. It's what gives me confidence there are no aliens in Area 51 and that pretty much every conspiracy theory is bullshit.

7. People conflate long-term drug side effects with vaccine side effects. Drugs have complicated interactions with pretty much every part of body chemistry and these can take years to surface. Immune responses are entirely different and very quick with a narrower risk profile. It's why we already know of issues like clotting with AZ and (allegedly) slightly elevated mycarditis risk with young people and Moderna, mere months into their usage;

8. We've now administered billions of doses of Covid vaccines. If there were serious problems they'd be evidence by now;

9. People don't understand what "emergency authorization" (from the CDC) actually means. It's essentially an administrative not medical issue. The Covid vaccines still went through Phase 3 clinical trials;

10. All the while claiming the true dangers are hidden, the VAERS data is confused and misstated. For one, it's reporting of what could be potential side effects to those who have had the vaccine. That data is mined for patterns to identify issues. Those issues have largely not been identified as you and others have claimed.

It's sad to me how many people who supposedly have a science education are able to fall for this crap. I mean just look at the vaccination rates of nurses (/sigh).

It's hard not to look at all this and think that humanity is screwed.

It may seem macabre (and it is) it's that the unvaccinated now are ~99% of Covid deaths and one can view this as evolution in action.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#148
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And yet we think we got this mRNA/Adenovirus vector formula right on the first try times 3 different brands with 2 years of reduced trials? Actually mRNA vaccines/tech been in development and trials for a long time (decades). What was done in last year is to encode specific mRNA and trial it. Not the entire "envelope". Nice historical overview: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02483-w

> Actually mRNA vaccines/tech been in development and trials for a long time (decades). Obviously the parent was not referring to the entire development history of mRNA tech, any more than one would include the initial work on inventing the internal combustion engine when talking about how much safety testing had been carried out for a new model car. The usual safety trials were not carried out for these vaccines, fu…

>Obviously the parent was not referring to the entire development history of mRNA tech, any more than one would include the initial work on inventing the internal combustion engine when talking about how much safety testing had been carried out for a new model car

Not obviously. Many people think that tech only appeared for first time "yesterday"

>The usual safety trials were not carried out for these vaccines, full stop.

Kinda yes and kinda no. They were trialing technology for a long time to know overall safety profile. In a moment that it's clear, it's not much different than early flu vaccine updates that don't go through "usual safety trial"

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. For example, the 0.89% population hospitalization rate in the last 1.5 years for the unvaccinated from the article you linked corresponds to a 38% chance of hospitalization o…

But that risk level of catching COVID is more or less a 1-time event. Once you've caught it and recovered (or gotten vaccinated) it's no longer a novel virus to your immune system and subsequent infections have an even lower risk for the vast majority of people. The real problem is when everyone in that 1% of hospitalizations catches it all at once, because we don't have nearly enough hospital beds to treat even a fr…

> But that risk level of catching COVID is more or less a 1-time event

No. You can treat the risk of being hospitalized from COVID as a one-time event, but the risk of catching COVID is a continuous event until you've either caught it or it has been eradicated.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#150

From NEJM Israeli study on Pfizer: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients and in 1 of 99,853 female recipients." Moderna shot is worse then for boys. What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM…

this is exactly why the dogmatic culture around vaccines is toxic. Nobody should be forced to take a vaccine before the side effects are even known.

You really don’t have time to wait 5 years for ”complete” results.

People don’t understand basic math and threat modeling. How likely you are going to get covid and how serious it can be (for you and others)? How likely you get something serious from vaccine (only you) but most likely avoid serious covid (and spread it less to others)?

Of course, forced vaccine might look bad from very selfish perspective, but benefits from bigger picture are obvious even with side effects.

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