Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks • Hacker News Board

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#101

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:09 PM UTC

unilynx wrote: post #99

mrtksn wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep seeing that argument every single time and keep wondering, isn’t there reason to implement JIT? Something like cost benefits outweigh the resilience risks? It’s not like people start dying on the streets, simply things are getting expensive and hard to get during disturbances. Are there calculations demonstrating that JIT the risks of optimization are more harmful than helpful in the long run?

Well only a decade ago Moore's law ensured that keeping any amount of stock on CPUs/GPU/memory would cost you a lot of money, as that would depreciate fast . JIT was a good idea until it wasn't

[deleted]

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#102

Post by yibg » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:12 PM UTC

skocznymroczny wrote: post #53

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your last paragraph demonstrates a number of profound and fundamental misunderstandings. First, herd immunity does not benefit from more bodies per se. You are portraying it as some sort of wall, where taking members out of the wall reduces the effectiveness. It is not like that at all. The proportion of previously exposed individuals required for herd immunity effects goes down as the frequency of potential spreadin…

Clear data? How many people get tested for influenza? How many people which had influenza got tested for covid and got a positive result? If I went to my doctor last winter, told him I have strong fever and cough, he'll either send me to get a PCR test for covid, or no test, just tell me it's probably covid and I should stay home and monitor symptoms. In such case most flu cases would just be assumed covid, and that'…

You are just taking your assumptions and forming opinions based on them.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#103

Post by camtarn » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:15 PM UTC

formerly_proven wrote: post #4

Currently working on a new design for a client, it's quite a pain. Lots of things, even mundane things like connectors and such are out of stock / low stock and usually quite a bit more expensive.

Yep, similarly. We work with PLCs where the manufacturer normally has fairly deep stocks of all the PLC CPUs, expansion cards, etc - guaranteed part availability is one of the big selling points of using PLCs. Some things are still available but others are completely out, to the point where we're considering completely redesigning some of our smaller experimental projects around e.g. Raspberry Pis.

What we do when RPis stop being available is yet to be seen...

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#104

Post by gumby » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:19 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #96

scardycat wrote: post #91

Just in time manufacturing contributes a lot to this shortage. We rely so much on integrated supply chain logistics, the pandemic clearly brought in to focus the "optimizations" of JIT manufacturing. The lack of local supply pools as buffer is so short sighted.

I keep seeing that argument every single time and keep wondering, isn’t there reason to implement JIT? Something like cost benefits outweigh the resilience risks? It’s not like people start dying on the streets, simply things are getting expensive and hard to get during disturbances. Are there calculations demonstrating that JIT the risks of optimization are more harmful than helpful in the long run?

JIT assumes a steady state, so squeezes all the buffering out of the system. But buffers are useful.

> It’s not like people start dying on the streets

Well, that’s a good example: there was a huge rise in need for masks and other protective gear about 20 months ago and the supply chain couldn’t handle it. That was why people were encouraged to use makeshift cloth masks, to leave the surgical masks and respirators for medical personnel who had the greatest exposure.

Eliminating buffering cuts cost and can lead to lower prices as well. But at best it merely pushes the buffer elsewhere.

Another way of looking at it: leaving seatbelts out of cars would save money and really, most cars are not involved in accidents so are they really needed? Pass the savings on to the customer!

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#105

Post by elzbardico » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #72

CydeWeys wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird to blame the lockdowns when the real cause was the pandemic. It's not like everyone was going to continually working normally in crowded spaces with people dropping like flies in the hospitals. China especially was hit so incredibly badly in that first wave; it was always gonna go pear-shaped no matter what.

I'm pretty sure the hardcore red states in the US would have simply soaked up the 0.7% IFR and moved on. That might not have helped with semiconductors, but there would probably still be meat and potatoes.

The IFR for covid is also heavily stratified by age. The latest best estimate from the CDC put it at 0.6% IFR for the general population, but at 0.05% for the 18-49 years group.

I am still not completely convinced that the choice of blanket lockdowns instead of focused protection of risky groups didn't make things worse by prolonging the pandemic, a.k.a. "flattening the curve".

Old people are not very mobile by nature, and had we kept the economy working, but with government assistance, we would probably be able to improve the social distancing of the elder and the obese for as much as we needed. The rest of the population could live their life as usual, with minimal consequence, and the virus would peter out when it find it difficult to find new host without immunity.

Instead we lockdown indiscriminately, and opened up indiscriminately and probably sooner then the ideal, because you simply can't keep thing lockdown for the whole society for long: Your resources are going to exhaust some day.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#106

Post by vcxy » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:24 PM UTC

symlinkk wrote: post #42

tibbydudeza wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I saw the time lapsed footage of a emergency hospital being built in Wuhan in only 10 days I turned to the wife and said there is some big $hit coming. Three weeks later we had 4 cases from Italian tourists - it all went pear shaped from there - 2.91M infected and 87,819 deaths.

China was also welding people in their homes, I don’t think they should be used as a barometer of how serious something is

I don't understand this comment. If you think it's not useful evidence of anything, then are you saying that welding people into their homes was equally likely if nothing was happening and it's just coincidence that they did it when they did?

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#107

Post by elzbardico » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:26 PM UTC

norenh wrote: post #44

Factorium wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life continued as normal in Sweden, Russia, Belarus... the pandemic 'response' was driven by the media and politicians. If there is surge of deaths in nursing homes (typically 50% of COVID deaths), it has no impact on the rest of the economy. Many of those same politicians later benefitted to tune of millions of dollars from advance knowledge of federal bank intervention in markets. If there was no lockdown, this opp…

>Life continued as normal in Sweden... Sweden had less formal lockdowns, but recommendations that was largely followed . Also limited opening hours for restaurants and closed events with live audience. Most workers stayed at home, traveling went down A LOT and people could not visit care homes etc. If you compare the effect on society it was largely the same as the rest of Scandinavia that did have slightly more form…

Sweden assumed their population is composed of adults. When you treat people like adults, they usually are far more likely to act as adults.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#108

Post by aidenn0 » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:27 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #96

scardycat wrote: post #91

Just in time manufacturing contributes a lot to this shortage. We rely so much on integrated supply chain logistics, the pandemic clearly brought in to focus the "optimizations" of JIT manufacturing. The lack of local supply pools as buffer is so short sighted.

I keep seeing that argument every single time and keep wondering, isn’t there reason to implement JIT? Something like cost benefits outweigh the resilience risks? It’s not like people start dying on the streets, simply things are getting expensive and hard to get during disturbances. Are there calculations demonstrating that JIT the risks of optimization are more harmful than helpful in the long run?

I don't think anybody actually did the math on this though. It's more like "I get a fat bonus if I decrease inventory without a significant effect to sales over the next 3 quarters" so as long as the near-term risk is worth it, it gets done.

[edit]

There's also the "If I don't implement JIT, I'll get replaced with someone who will" effect in a lot of cases too.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#109

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:28 PM UTC

bingohbangoh wrote: post #70

eljimmy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true - China's numbers, unsurprisingly, really don't give light to how badly they were impacted. I remember reading about how they were building brand new hospitals to cope. Literally building a brand new hospital. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/pictures-china-builds-two-ho... Looking back on that, it's interesting to think about how that should have been a major warning sign of things to come for the rest of t…

We had the Navy hospital boat and transformed the Javitz center (where Comic Con happens) to be hospitals. Both went virtually unused. [In NYC]

Not because we didn't need them, though.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-u...

> On top of its strict rules preventing people infected with the virus from coming on board, the Navy is also refusing to treat a host of other conditions. Guidelines disseminated to hospitals included a list of 49 medical conditions that would exclude a patient from admittance to the ship.

> Ambulances cannot take patients directly to the Comfort; they must first deliver patients to a city hospital for a lengthy evaluation — including a test for the virus — and then pick them up again for transport to the ship.

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nycs-largest-emergency-h...

> But much to the frustration of healthcare workers, since that announcement, Javits has taken in nowhere near its capacity. As of April 7, the convention center had admitted only 66 patients. This was due in large part to the strict admission requirements. At first, a patient could only be transferred to Javits if they were convalescing, or in the recovery period. The fear was that Javits didn't have the ICU beds, operating rooms, or equipment necessary to handle patients who might relapse or need surgery because of an underlying condition.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#110

Post by mrtksn » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 4:29 PM UTC

gumby wrote: post #104

mrtksn wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep seeing that argument every single time and keep wondering, isn’t there reason to implement JIT? Something like cost benefits outweigh the resilience risks? It’s not like people start dying on the streets, simply things are getting expensive and hard to get during disturbances. Are there calculations demonstrating that JIT the risks of optimization are more harmful than helpful in the long run?

JIT assumes a steady state, so squeezes all the buffering out of the system. But buffers are useful. > It’s not like people start dying on the streets Well, that’s a good example: there was a huge rise in need for masks and other protective gear about 20 months ago and the supply chain couldn’t handle it. That was why people were encouraged to use makeshift cloth masks, to leave the surgical masks and respirators for…

I know the benefits of having a buffer but do we need buffers everywhere? As in your example, wouldn't be much better to have a buffer in the hospitals(or maybe some kind of regional emergency organisations) as a precaution for an outbreak instead of advocating for buffers across the textile industry?

I like the way you put it, JIT simply pushes the buffer elsewhere. However, this seems like a very good thing to have because those who cannot afford running out of something can do a buffer themselves instead of blindly everyone keeps buffering.