Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 38 posts

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#21

Post by sailingparrot »

scoopertrooper wrote: post #20
sailingparrot wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds like petty criticism to me. What exactly is "true weather prediction" then? Using a crystal ball? And yes, extrapolation is not new, but deep learning is just much better at it. > labeling things as “AI” that are just rather basic data analytics They are using a GAN to do this, you can't get more AI than this. If this is not AI, then what is? Getting accurate short term predictions is very valuable for e.…

I generally agree with your points, but nowcasting is definitely the less exciting problem for ML to solve. Also, applying a GAN to nowcasting is definitely not a novel idea. You'd hope that given that modern ML methods can handle crazy high dimensional data that someone would be able to do something with weather forecasting beyond current models. However, there are many factors that render this a 'hard' problem. I g…

Sure, that might not be a Nobel prize worthy breakthrough, but it is still very much AI, and it is still very much "true" weather prediction. I just don't understand where the gatekeeping on both point is coming from.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#23

Post by JCM9 »

sailingparrot wrote: post #16
JCM9 wrote: post #3

This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…

That sounds like petty criticism to me. What exactly is "true weather prediction" then? Using a crystal ball? And yes, extrapolation is not new, but deep learning is just much better at it. > labeling things as “AI” that are just rather basic data analytics They are using a GAN to do this, you can't get more AI than this. If this is not AI, then what is? Getting accurate short term predictions is very valuable for e.…

“True weather prediction” as in the actual computer forecast modes that have been around for decades. Taking atmospheric measurements and creating 3D predictions of weather conditions in the future, including wind speed, precip type and amount, and so on. The example here is just basic image extrapolation analytics, which as pointed out by many, is not new.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#24

Post by dagw »

Gys wrote: post #22

In the Netherlands there is buienradar.nl which also uses radar images to predict rain fall accurately. Already for more then 10 years. Before an algorithm was called ‘AI’ ;-)

Did you read the paper? It makes clear that, yes this has been done for years and is nothing new as such, but this new approach gives much more accurate and higher resolution results.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#25

Post by spywaregorilla »

ekianjo wrote: post #14
Jabbles wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI doing something that humans used to do but better is pretty much the whole point of AI. The chasm between drawing a line on a map and this system is enormous, and represents 30 years of research. It doesn't have to be a breakthrough to be in the news, it's a routine advancement of the state-of-the art.

You did not need Black box neural networks to do statistics before.

You don't need a black box neural network to do statistics now. But it might be a good tool nonetheless.

And it might be much less of a black box than you imagine.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#26

Post by scoopertrooper »

sailingparrot wrote: post #21
scoopertrooper wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with your points, but nowcasting is definitely the less exciting problem for ML to solve. Also, applying a GAN to nowcasting is definitely not a novel idea. You'd hope that given that modern ML methods can handle crazy high dimensional data that someone would be able to do something with weather forecasting beyond current models. However, there are many factors that render this a 'hard' problem. I g…

Sure, that might not be a Nobel prize worthy breakthrough, but it is still very much AI, and it is still very much "true" weather prediction. I just don't understand where the gatekeeping on both point is coming from.

Some folks around Hacker News are convinced that AI is just another hype-cycle.

Yes, this paper is an incremental improvement over the state of the art of hand crafted algorithms. However, it should be viewed as an incremental step towards greater things!

I'm sure DeepMind, the team that recently (basically) solved the protein folding problem, will deliver exciting advancements in the field of weather forecasting in the coming years.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#28

Post by dagw »

cryptoz wrote: post #8

There isn't enough info in the article to know exactly what is happening, but the problem with most of these systems (my first attempt 10 years ago, or Dark Sky, others as well) is that they use existing rainfall and wind speed to make guesses about where the rain will move. They typically fail at making real weather predictions; new rain starting to fall is a simple example that is often missed by these kinds of pre…

The article just says "maps" but doesn't say what the data is.

The paper is linked in the article and answers all your data questions, including links to where you can download the data yourself.

Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time

#29

Post by Joker_vD »

scoopertrooper wrote: post #26
sailingparrot wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, that might not be a Nobel prize worthy breakthrough, but it is still very much AI, and it is still very much "true" weather prediction. I just don't understand where the gatekeeping on both point is coming from.

Some folks around Hacker News are convinced that AI is just another hype-cycle. Yes, this paper is an incremental improvement over the state of the art of hand crafted algorithms. However, it should be viewed as an incremental step towards greater things! I'm sure DeepMind, the team that recently (basically) solved the protein folding problem, will deliver exciting advancements in the field of weather forecasting in…

The AI has been another hype-cycle for at least two times already. "AI winter" is a term from the seventies, and it re-emerged the second time in the late eighties. But maybe the third time the charm, who knows.
Post reply on HN