Splendid. From now on for anything in my study involving correlation and causation to define future events, I will stamp AI on every sentence of the paper.
AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
11–20 of 38 posts
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#12This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…
yep, I was researching precipitation nowcasting i.e. extrapolating radar images years ago using "AI"
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#13My grandma could predict if it will have rained in the morning for the night.
So when is some investor going to come and cover my grandma with benjamins?
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#14This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…
AI doing something that humans used to do but better is pretty much the whole point of AI. The chasm between drawing a line on a map and this system is enormous, and represents 30 years of research. It doesn't have to be a breakthrough to be in the news, it's a routine advancement of the state-of-the art.
You did not need Black box neural networks to do statistics before.
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#15Hurray! They've re-implemented the 'Dark Sky' app (since acquired by Apple)
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#16This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…
That sounds like petty criticism to me.
What exactly is "true weather prediction" then? Using a crystal ball?
And yes, extrapolation is not new, but deep learning is just much better at it.
> labeling things as “AI” that are just rather basic data analytics
They are using a GAN to do this, you can't get more AI than this. If this is not AI, then what is?
Getting accurate short term predictions is very valuable for e.g. prediction of solar panels energy production to avoid starting coal peaker plants, or to predict flooding.
I get that it's popular to dunk on anything called AI to show that you have not fallen prey to the PR bullshit machine, but in that case, it's 100% unwarranted in my opinion.
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#17[deleted]
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#18My dodgy shoulder can do 4 hours.
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#19This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…
That sounds like petty criticism to me. What exactly is "true weather prediction" then? Using a crystal ball? And yes, extrapolation is not new, but deep learning is just much better at it. > labeling things as “AI” that are just rather basic data analytics They are using a GAN to do this, you can't get more AI than this. If this is not AI, then what is? Getting accurate short term predictions is very valuable for e.…
the point is that when academics and private entities start throwing around the word "AI" for anything digital they are cashing in on other people's hard work and diluting the positive effects of actual AI research.
Re: AI can predict if it will rain in two hours' time
#20This is a bit over-hyped and not exactly a breakthrough. It’s not doing true weather prediction but rather extrapolating the movement of radar images. This is nothing new. I remember as far back as the 1990s TV weathermen would draw a line across a line of moving rain and the computer would predict which town it would get to and when. Slapping “AI” on this 25 years later is an good example of the whole present PR mov…
That sounds like petty criticism to me. What exactly is "true weather prediction" then? Using a crystal ball? And yes, extrapolation is not new, but deep learning is just much better at it. > labeling things as “AI” that are just rather basic data analytics They are using a GAN to do this, you can't get more AI than this. If this is not AI, then what is? Getting accurate short term predictions is very valuable for e.…
I generally agree with your points, but nowcasting is definitely the less exciting problem for ML to solve. Also, applying a GAN to nowcasting is definitely not a novel idea.
You'd hope that given that modern ML methods can handle crazy high dimensional data that someone would be able to do something with weather forecasting beyond current models. However, there are many factors that render this a 'hard' problem.
I guess, starting off with nowcasting is a neat way for DeepMind to become acquainted with the topic matter, but I'd hope they have their ambitions set a little higher.
Here's an interesting paper on this topic:
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.009...