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US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

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Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#131

Post by cs702 »

Ekaros wrote: post #122
cs702 wrote: post #55

This is disingenuous, alarmist, click-bait, bulls**t. The $28T figure consists of: * ~$6T held by the Federal Reserve: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFRBN -- this is money that the government owes, quite literally, to itself , made possible by the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has been buying government obligations to keep interest rates low. * ~$7T held by foreigners: https://fred.stlouisfed.org…

I think it is reasonable to count debt that is owned to other tax payers. As clearly that debt is not going to be defaulted on so taxpayers not owning it must pay it back to someone else...

It makes no sense for a single taxpayer to look at how much will be owed over time to millions upon millions of other taxpayers, without taking into account that all of those taxpayers are also simultaneously paying and will be paying taxes.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#132

Post by ethbr0 »

tibbon wrote: post #81
DFHippie wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The meaningful number is 2033, the year Social Security is projected to run out of money. This is the year the trust fund runs out of money, at which point Social Security won't be able to meet its full obligations, only what it can cover with current payroll taxes. Social Security can't run out of money unless the taxes that support it are eliminated. "Social Security won't be available for you Gen X'ers" is misle…

Removing the income cap is really a clear way to mitigate this problem greatly. From what I understand it doesn't fix it entirely. I wonder if we could put SS on capital gains, even at 1%. That would help this include investment gains.

Removing the income cap for social security tax ($142,800 for 2021) would be interesting, because that's also the max for benefit purposes [0]. 35 years at max = max social security benefits.

[0] https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/retirebenefit1.html

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#133

Post by mywittyname »

literallyaduck wrote: post #39

If America defaults and wipes the foreign debt, what happens worldwide?

I don't think we want to find out. Best, and most probable case, the government renegotiates the debt and agrees to pay stiff penalties. Worst case? Countries start seizing assets worldwide. Maybe just America government assets, maybe also American citizen's assets. Who knows how far that escalates. Perhaps the government will reimburse citizens, maybe they will sabre rattle. It's hard to tell.

This is like Brexit. It's really hard to predict what will happen as a result, but we know it's going to be both bad, and far reaching.

I strongly suspect that the Administration, Treasury, and Fed all have provisions in place for if this were to happen. The debt ceiling debacle has been getting worse every year, and given the events of 2020, it's not crazy to think that there is a real possibility of default. There are probably members of Congress who are hoping for a default, thinking it may cripple the country.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#134

Post by jfengel »

platz wrote: post #92
matthewdgreen wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The meaningful number is 2033, the year Social Security is projected to run out of money. This comment is excellent, except for one clarification: "Social Security" is not going to run out of money. The "Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund" will run out of money in 2033 (the disability insurance fund is solvent until 2057). After this happens -- and assuming no action by Congress -- Social Security will stil…

the government can't be insolvent to by owing money to itself.

That specific fund can be insolvent. It's a specific pot of money set aside for the purpose.

The government can fill it, but it will need to pass laws to do so.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#135

Post by OldHand2018 »

listless wrote: post #106
jfengel wrote: post #30

It's a misleading way of calculating the number, since it refers to all of the future debt obligations, including Social Security out many decades -- but also ignoring the fact that we'll be collecting taxes all that time. It's a bit like concluding that you're a million dollars in debt because you are going to need to buy food for the rest of your life. I suppose it's true -- it is something you need to plan for. Bu…

If I’ve learned anything during the pandemic, it’s “that’s not how money works”. If it runs out, they’ll just borrow more. The real question is at what point are we so leveraged that we default on bonds because we can’t meet our obligations? 10 years? 100 years? I don’t think anyone can answer this. But this is how it will likely end.

Isn't it more like 3 weeks, according to Janet Yellen?

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#136

Post by jfengel »

DFHippie wrote: post #72
jfengel wrote: post #30

It's a misleading way of calculating the number, since it refers to all of the future debt obligations, including Social Security out many decades -- but also ignoring the fact that we'll be collecting taxes all that time. It's a bit like concluding that you're a million dollars in debt because you are going to need to buy food for the rest of your life. I suppose it's true -- it is something you need to plan for. Bu…

> The meaningful number is 2033, the year Social Security is projected to run out of money. This is the year the trust fund runs out of money, at which point Social Security won't be able to meet its full obligations, only what it can cover with current payroll taxes. Social Security can't run out of money unless the taxes that support it are eliminated. "Social Security won't be available for you Gen X'ers" is misle…

That's correct: the trust fund runs out and it won't be able to meet the full obligation. It will be able to meet partial obligations, though there's no law specifying how.

This isn't GenX complaining that Social Security should go away. That was GenX complaining that Boomers spent the 80s spending extravagantly through the federal government, and racking up enormous debts, while patting themselves on the back for being fiscally conservative.

It wasn't the Social Security they were unhappy with, but the other expenditures. Which expenditures, of course, are always hard to pin down -- it's easy to complain about the bottom line but not to say what you want to cut. Many would point to the ballooning military budget -- and that's all before 9/11.

But that's water under the bridge. We still expect to receive less Social Security than our forebears, and there's practically nothing we can do about it.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#137

Post by nradov »

bscphil wrote: post #120
jfengel wrote: post #30

It's a misleading way of calculating the number, since it refers to all of the future debt obligations, including Social Security out many decades -- but also ignoring the fact that we'll be collecting taxes all that time. It's a bit like concluding that you're a million dollars in debt because you are going to need to buy food for the rest of your life. I suppose it's true -- it is something you need to plan for. Bu…

The real misleading part, to the point of being actively malicious, is "Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k". This is intended to make the median viewer, who will never see that much money at once in their entire life (and will take 20+ years to even make that much before-tax), feel that the Federal government is being irresponsible. It's an obvious push for fiscal conservatism which, crucially may or may not be warranted b…

A sovereign can't literally go bankrupt. Instead when debt service inevitably becomes unmanageable then the Federal government will most likely force creditors to take a cram down.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#138

Post by mywittyname »

crobertsbmw wrote: post #82

I don’t understand how social security isn’t a pyramid scheme. It seems to me like something we should just do away with.

It's not a pyramid scheme because there's no promise of returns. One may pay $1,000,000 in social security and receive $0, but other may pay in only $10,000 and receive $100,000 over their lifetime. People who pay into it will get $X, unless the surplus runs out, in which case they get a reduced amount proportional to the amount of money coming in.

A pyramid scheme guarantees returns, and those guarantees can, and will eventually, exceed the amount of money held by the scheme. Social security makes no such guarantee.

Social Security is basically a modified tontine. You pay in during your working life, and then receive payments at some age until you die. Like a tontine, the longer you live, the more payout you receive.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#139

Post by bserge »

pavlov wrote: post #48
bserge wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rest of the world has seen the same price increases.

In many places in Europe, four out of five items on that list are provided or managed by the state (child care, education, health care, retirement). Which IMO explains why Europeans tend to feel more comfortable even with salaries that, on paper, are significantly lower. The American middle class is getting squeezed by this particular class of costs.

That's part of it. In most of Europe, if you want good anything, you have to pay for it. Even then, you might not get it, because the system is so benevolently "universal".

Europeans are comfortable with lower salaries because they believe they're paying taxes for the greater good. That's often not the case.

I speak from experience here and I'm sick of people putting universal healthcare and other European shit on a pedestal.

Now, butthurt Europeans and especially little angry German trolls can start downvoting, but remember, ignore something for too long and it can turn into terminal cancer.

Re: US Published National Debt: $28T. The Truth: $146T. Each Taxpayer's Share: $951k

#140

Post by Ekaros »

wallawe wrote: post #64
bserge wrote: post #11

Nobody cares anymore. People are working, resources are being extracted, created and traded, economies are rolling. Money is there to facilitate that, but on its own it's pretty much worthless. Just wish inequality wasn't so fucking huge.

Inequality seems like a meaningless metric. It's not a good measure of a society's well being. For example, let's assume a country of 10 where 9 people have $1 million and 1 person has $100 trillion. The inequality is massive but everyone has a great standard of living.

Without external trade I doubt that 1 million will buy too much.
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