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EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

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Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#141
post #35

Its sadder everyday that somehow humanity has failed to become a nuclear society. All our problems could have been solved decades ago but we are still nowhere near a solution.

Part of the issues of nuclear remain the high costs, hairy security situation in many countries and very limited ability to adapt to demand. This is both in the night-and-day cycle meaning but also in the "we need more power in 10-years" meaning, since nuclear power plants take forever to build. Saying that all our problems could have been solved by nuclear is not close to the truth, especially regarding climate chan…

> since nuclear power plants take forever to build

Even PWR don't take 'forever' to build if you actually build a large number. The problem is that, specially in the West, we have gone to a policy where its like 'lets do a tiny bit of nuclear' and that leads to basically 1 plant being in construction supported by a increasingly small nuclear industry getting endlessly delayed because nobody working on it has ever done it before.

Learning effects in nuclear building are massive and well researched. You need to have teams that have done it before and it goes much faster.

Even the most shitty PWR could be built in 4-5 years as we have seen in France, US or South Korea.

Of course, if you were serious today about doing this, you wouldn't use 60s PWRs anyway and if you use modern reactors you don't need to do a massive civil engineering project. Ironically in many way the civil engineering is gigantic part of the cost, not the nuclear itself.

> Saying that all our problems could have been solved by nuclear is not close to the truth

Well of course 'all' problems would not be solved, but the fact is we could have had clean energy for 40 years had nuclear continued and new types of reactors had come along.

It's my opinion, and I know most people don't agree that if you have real mass manufacturing of nuclear reactors, it would actually be viable to competitively produce green fuel. Maybe some subsidies or tax on non green version to push it faster.

I would have favored making all cars into FFV (Flex Fuel) and having a 5%-80% methanol requirement (increasing every few years). That methanol could then increasingly be made with nuclear power as your capacity grows.

Today we have lithium batteries for most of transportation so that is no longer as relevant as it would have been if we had done this in the 90s. I still a good idea for aviation and other needs of chemical energy.

> Ongoing electrification and decarbonisation isn't hard because of the electricity needs, but because technologies are just now coming close to viability in many markets and aren't even close in others.

Power is still a huge issue for countries, if we had mass produced reactors, exporting them in those countries is a very viable option to get green energy to those people at a cheaper rate then coal they are actually building.

If emerging countries could call the US and say 'we like 50x500MW reactors' deployed over the next 10 years. They would very much want to do it.

> The ongoing transformation of the electricity generation market to renewables isn't failing because of technical inability, but hesitancy to invest

The same could be said for nuclear as well.

> strong opposition to new transmission lines

Renewables break the traditional local production concept for power and force an ever increasing amount of energy transportation. Because of non uniform wind and weather patterns and lack of economically viable storage you compensate by transporting energy.

I much favor having nuclear reactor, say 500MW units being deployed everywhere where it makes sense as close to consumption as viable. And for places this makes no sense also having a much smaller 100MW reactor type that you can deploy in shipping containers everywhere needed.

Reliable base load close to consumption combined maybe a few heat batteries (or hydro if available) can is the perfect solution. In theory modern reactors could be load following quite well, but its really a question of what is cheaper, lower utilization or energy storage.

This is exactly how Ontario (Canada) and Sweden have a green grid.

> not because we're not using nuclear for everything.

In my opinion part of the political problem is because what is attempted is so difficult and puts so many changes on people. Simply deploying nuclear reactors in the same location current coal plants are leads to basically no change in the overall gird.

Its literally build whatever number of 500MW modular reactors right next to each other in the same building (these building are very small if its a modern reactor) and put them right next to the coal plant and reuse the same transmissions lines. Literally 95% of people would never even know that anything what so ever had changed. No fields of solar panels, no gigantic wind turbine, as little as possible increase in energy transportation (or even a decrees).

Had the world actually made progress on nuclear technology (as I suggest was the problem) it would simply be an economic way for politicians to transition out of coal. Sure some regions where coal is produced have coal lobby, and in some regions you might have local opposition to nuclear being able to stop or delay the building. Overall however most people don't care.

When I say we are not a nuclear society, what I mean is that we are missing everything from a vibrant nuclear industry with startups and big players, a efficient regulatory framework and an agency that is motivate to actually make forward progress (FCC and SpaceX working together), and some public or semi-public organization to manage the fuel cycle and waste.

Literally all of that is missing. Nuclear industry is mostly just producing fuel for PWRs, nuclear startups are 50x hard then even space startups, the regulatory body that took over from the nuclear commission has basically destroyed any and all progress and has made any deployment of advanced nuclear essentially impossible (regulation hard code technology dependency) and no solution for nuclear fuel cycle (politics being deadlocked over the idiocy of Yucca despite billions that have already been paid and is sitting around).

Thankfully Canada regulators have realized this and we see a emerging industry. Canada even seems to think about the fuel cycle in a more imaginative way then 'dig hole dump in'.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#142
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been listening to this rhetoric for years, yet every year, more energy problems are caused by (lack of) stable base load electricity supply, both in US and Europe, and much more in countries that heavily invested in "green" (non-nuclear) tech (e.g. Germany), than not (e.g. France).

Its really a catch-22 type thing. You increase renewables, destroying the viability of base load. That forces more short term power producers into the market, that then inefficiently burn gas to produce when renewables are off. The gas plants are profitable because the prices you have to pay them are pretty high. And this problem is getting worse all the time and its not really a great overall strategy. I would argue…

And most insane thing to me is that we think in net terms and not peak terms. That is if you sign up to buy wind or solar. You should not be getting any when there is no wind or solar.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#143
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the issues of nuclear remain the high costs, hairy security situation in many countries and very limited ability to adapt to demand. This is both in the night-and-day cycle meaning but also in the "we need more power in 10-years" meaning, since nuclear power plants take forever to build. Saying that all our problems could have been solved by nuclear is not close to the truth, especially regarding climate chan…

> since nuclear power plants take forever to build Even PWR don't take 'forever' to build if you actually build a large number. The problem is that, specially in the West, we have gone to a policy where its like 'lets do a tiny bit of nuclear' and that leads to basically 1 plant being in construction supported by a increasingly small nuclear industry getting endlessly delayed because nobody working on it has ever don…

>Even PWR don't take 'forever' to build if you actually build a large number. The problem is that, specially in the West, we have gone to a policy where its like 'lets do a tiny bit of nuclear' and that leads to basically 1 plant being in construction supported by a increasingly small nuclear industry getting endlessly delayed because nobody working on it

And then we even think in terms of reactors, not power plants. So you get a permission for a reactor. As you only get one you want to buy the biggest one you can get. Which likely meant the newest theoretically available. Instead of two or three more mature and sensible designs, likely costing less in long run.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#144

Its sadder everyday that somehow humanity has failed to become a nuclear society. All our problems could have been solved decades ago but we are still nowhere near a solution.

We are really really close to a solution, and for the one thing that nuclear is hyped to provide--clean electricity--we have cheaper and easier and more scalable solutions than nuclear. The challenges we have now with decarbonization are not solved by cheap electricity. The challenges I'm talking about are industrial and chemical processes, transitioning transport quickly enough, freight, aviation, agriculture, etc.…

> we have cheaper and easier and more scalable solutions than nuclear.

It is cheaper now but my suggestion is that this is not inherent.

My whole point about a nuclear society was that if existed the economics would be different.

> The challenges we have now with decarbonization are not solved by cheap electricity. The challenges I'm talking about are industrial and chemical processes, transitioning transport quickly enough, freight, aviation, agriculture, etc. these all require specific new technologies beyond cheap electricity.

Again, part of my point is that the best way to solve these problems is having cheap high temperature reactors.

These reactors are prefect in replacing gas in heat production, and be used to for example to produce hydrogen that then would get further transformed into all kind of chemical fuels and feed-stocks.

> It would have been great if nuclear had worked out, but it was always overhyped and it always underdelivered. We were told it would be cheap, but it often had ridiculously expensive construction delays, leading to financial disasters. This happened in the 1970s and even today.

People have such a narrow view of this. Nuclear provided gigantic amounts of clean energy when the only alternative was coal. This by itself saved far more lives then any nuclear accident ever killed (that number is very low).

Not being able to beat massively powerful fossil industry with 60s technology in the middle of a massive anti-nuclear weapons (and thus everything nuclear) push is hardly grounds to dismiss it.

If people had given a shit about climate change in the 1970 and willing to give it the same kind of subsidies that renewables have been getting then things would be different. This would have been more expensive then coal but the public heath aspect and the clean energy aspect would have made this worthwhile 10x over.

The fact is, the reason we even started building PWR is that the military wanted them for submarines. And despite even the designers of them saying they were a bad fit for civil nuclear, the government and industry pushed forward on these designs and pretty quickly hard locked themself into these designs for everything commercial. Everything else with a few exceptions was locked into research efforts and those were reduced consistently after the 60s.

> It's time to stop mythologizing the technology

It has nothing to do with mythologizing. It has to do with simply first principles approach to problems solving. We have an energy source that is literally freely available as a waste product from mining. Existing rare earth mines already have unlimited thorium as waste stream. Natural Uranium is plentiful as well.

This energy source turns out to be 10^12 more energy dense then fossil fuels that have powered society for a century and produced highly available energy at cheap prices.

> stop blaming the false boogeymen, and realize that at its heart the technology requires an excessive amount of piping, concrete, and machinery all to generate heat to make steam to move a turbine

All of this is wrong. You conclusions are only based a reactor design, not on nuclear as a whole. A modern type of reactor (some are going threw regulatory process in Canada and could have been designed in the 70s) are far, far smaller then PWR type reactors and use orders of magnitude less concrete.

There have actually been a lot of study about what makes nuclear expensive. And its mainly two things, that nuclear reactors are basically gigantic civil engineering projects that has to be done at a very high standard and to get those in on time, on budget you really need a workforce that has experience. This type of knowledge was achieved in a few cases and in those PWR were able to be build in 4-5 years reliably.

The second part of what makes it commercially not viable is that financing these projects is actually a huge problem. Because of the long time it takes to build such a first time project, you require refinancing for 10 years and that is huge part of the overall cost.

Pretty much all next generation reactors have a far more energy dense core. This means a far smaller reactor vessel.

Because you don't use water coolant, you don't need to have a high pressure system and reactor vessel. Meaning both vessel and pipes are MASSIVELY simpler. You literally operate at atmospheric pressure.

High temperature operations make air-cooled means you can use the same turbines as CCGT plants and you don't need the large water towers.

So if the overall civil engineering project is far smaller, very comparable to a CCGT plants.

> but when you add in the engineering to capture the heat to boil water, it's not so cheap in reality, and there's been no innovation on making the engineering more elegant or cheaper in decades

This is an absurd claim. Gas power plants also need all of those things and are massively cheap and often beat renewables specially so if renewables were required to provide full reliability.

As I pointed out above, with the size of plant reduced to a CCGT gas plant, and the input being massively cheap compared to buying gas. A nuclear plant like this could have an very small staff (smaller then a CCGT gas plant) as the reactor is actually self balancing and you mostly need to monitor it and refuel it.

There has been a renewed interest in CO2 powered turbines that could potentially be more efficient and far smaller. Hopefully these will start to be commercialized at some point.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#146
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas cuts emissions if you're only looking at CO2, but accounting for methane leaks it has about the same climate impact as coal.

I see this criticism every now and then but surely it can't be that simple, that all the professionals are just forgetting methane. The argument reminds me of "sceptics" who appeal to "the effect of the sun cycles", as I'd climate scientists wouldn't have thought of that.

What do you mean by "all the professionals?" There have been a lot of studies on this. There are plenty of lobbyists and politicians who would like you to think it's not a problem, but climate scientists are well aware of it.

Aside from that, we need net zero by 2050 and building new gas plants that will last longer than 30 years is not helpful for that.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#147
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What mob? It's one guy that violently took a sign from a woman (at least that's what can be seen in the video) and broke the sign. Nobody was hurt and the victim didn't even press charges. Most people seem to be minding their own business and getting out of the way. So not much to see there. Except a way for people that disagree with the protestors to reinforce their stereotypes or the daily fix of anger over nothing…

Are you out of your mind? Somebody violently grabbing the banner of a peaceful protestor is just one step away from physically assaulting that protestor. If you don't see the obvious red line crossed there, you are completely detached from reality and want to protecter the attacker just because he happens to claim to be green (but hypocritically so, if he is also against nuclear energy). Incredible, really. Finally,…

I guess I must be out of my mind. I didn‘t realize I implied all of that in my previous.

Now to the part of your comment that is on-topic:

> Finally, yes it is a mob as nobody from the bystanders did anything to stop the attacker, tacitly agreeing with what he did.

The bystanders did exactly what bystanders do. They stood by. That doesn‘t make them agree with the attacker.

What would you habe done if you were there? I know I don‘t have the reflexes and fighting skills to stop this from happening. And I bet she had her friends helping her afterwards so there wouldn‘t have been any need to get involved.

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this criticism every now and then but surely it can't be that simple, that all the professionals are just forgetting methane. The argument reminds me of "sceptics" who appeal to "the effect of the sun cycles", as I'd climate scientists wouldn't have thought of that.

What do you mean by "all the professionals?" There have been a lot of studies on this. There are plenty of lobbyists and politicians who would like you to think it's not a problem, but climate scientists are well aware of it. Aside from that, we need net zero by 2050 and building new gas plants that will last longer than 30 years is not helpful for that.

"We need net zero by 2050" is completely arbitrary.

New gas plants ARE helpful for cutting emissions if you compare it to the most likely alternative (eg coal).

It's only NOT helpful if you compare it to utopia. If you could reliably assume that there will be net zero otherwise, then you wouldn't need to worry about these gas plants would you? They'd be shuttered soon anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy

Re: EU Is Warned Green Label for Gas Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Mistake

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "all the professionals?" There have been a lot of studies on this. There are plenty of lobbyists and politicians who would like you to think it's not a problem, but climate scientists are well aware of it. Aside from that, we need net zero by 2050 and building new gas plants that will last longer than 30 years is not helpful for that.

"We need net zero by 2050" is completely arbitrary. New gas plants ARE helpful for cutting emissions if you compare it to the most likely alternative (eg coal). It's only NOT helpful if you compare it to utopia. If you could reliably assume that there will be net zero otherwise, then you wouldn't need to worry about these gas plants would you? They'd be shuttered soon anyway. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fal…

Yes it is fairly arbitrary. With a bit of googling, looks like a fair number of climate scientists call it "too little too late"[1] and "a dangerous trap" on the grounds that we can't put things off that long[2].

Combined with the benefits of gas being much less than advertised due to leakage, it seems reckless to build new fossil plants of any sort, since we have alternative energy sources that don't emit at all. That's not utopian, it's just the rational direction to take right now.

[1] https://www.ccag.earth/newsroom/net-zero-by-2050-is-too-litt...

[2] https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-ne...

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