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China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

dailybusinessgroup.co.uk

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Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I use some electricity to run PoW on an electronic litecoin transaction from me to my friend in Kenya, that's a hell of a lot lower energy than building and operating a Western Union in Kenya isn't it? On an aggregated pre transaction basis we know this isn’t true. Crypto is not more energy efficient than existing financial infrastructure. Additionally you’re comparing a small part of a financial transactions (I…

>including turning those digital funds into spendable cash. Crypto can be spendable cash. You can buy a coffee or a bar of gold with it, even bullets. Sounds like it can be used as a currency to me. It only takes a willing counterparty. > Crypto is not more energy efficient than existing financial infrastructure. That depends on the place and circumstance. I concede that Kenya was a poor example and I should have use…

> Crypto can be spendable cash. You can buy a coffee or a bar of gold with it, even bullets. Sounds like it can be used as a currency to me. It only takes a willing counterparty.

All true, but the same also applies to chickens, screwdrivers, oranges, dogs, cats etc. Just because you can barter with something doesn’t make it a currency.

Currencies are better identified by their fungibility (which crypto has), their value stability (which crypto currently doesn’t), and their wide acceptance for use in everyday transaction (also not true of crypto in the vast majority of the world).

> It's only from the perspective of someone that thinks like a loser, always trying to find something wrong, that you can find zero uses where using crypto is more energy efficient than other financial options. And not all cryptos use the same energy or transaction cost as others.

I’ll remind you of the guidelines, as you’ve clearly forgotten them.

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community.

Ad hominem attacks undermine your arguments and suggest that you don’t actually have very strong argument, instead you’re forced to attack the character of the person your discussing with, due to an inability to attack their argument. Try harder.

I used be a fan of crypto, did plenty of trading, bought plenty of pizza etc with it. When to meetups, evangelised crypto to friends and family. Back then it looked realistic that crypto could be a genuine currency, and the concept of DAG was incredibly.

Unfortunately crypto has descended into little more than get rich quick schemes that take advantage of naïve investors, or produce profit by externalising all of the negative consequences of crypto mining (such as CO2 emissions). Forcing the rest of us to bear that long term cost, for a grifters short term profit.

I admit there are coins out there that potential address these issues, and still possibly have a future as a genuinely useful currency. One not manipulated by a small number of extremely large coin holders. But unfortunately that doesn’t change the damage caused by other coins.

> For an example of transaction efficiency, I can buy a bar of gold from some established bullion vendors in litecoin much cheaper than with a visa card due to lower transaction risks for the merchant and lower transaction fees. If you can't wait multiple days for an ACH transaction and have to buy precious metals online, crypto is actually the cheapest way in the US.

This is just an example of how slow and backwards the US financial system is. Most other countries have far quicker and cheaper payment rails. Here in the U.K. I can send an instant Faster Payment for free from my bank account, and the money moves faster than the app UI (I get a push notification from the receiving bank, before the UI in my banks app has had time to display the confirmation). The whole of Europe has similar payment systems that also work cross border.

The money moves so fast that when trading crypto the slowest part of buying or selling was always the confirmations. The fiat part was instant.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#672
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a bit annoying that you assume that people critical of cryptocurrencies and specifically Bitcoin's environmental footprint are uneducated about the issues. It is not a myth. BTC's environmental footprint is preposterous. It's estimated that the network currently runs at 165 TWh/a, or around 19 GW, which means that one transaction uses around 5 GJ or 1500 kWh, and produces 800 kg of CO2, and 250 g of electronic…

Measuring energy use per transactions makes no sense, as mining energy consumption is not related to the number of transactions processed. Also a huge portion of the energy used by bitcoin would otherwise be wasted. Also your figures are egregiously off and taken from flawed estimates https://nydig.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NYDIG-Bitcoin-N...

> Measuring energy use per transactions makes no sense

I am well aware of the difference between average and marginal energy use. This would be particularly relevant if the blocks were not full, but mined anyway, so that any additional transaction could've been included "for free". However, more often than not, that's not the case, but the mempool is non-empty, and the constraint (of max transactions per block) is binding. [1]

Thus, one can not trivially argue that the marginal cost of a transaction is zero.

Next, yes, my figures (165 TWh/a = 19 GW) from Digiconomist [2]) are at the upper end of the estimates, but other figures (eg Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index) estimate 100 TWh/a, with reasonable bounds of 36 to 376 TWh/a, so 12 to 28 GW, so are largely in alignment, modulo a factor of 2. (Note that your source is also within a factor of 3 of those estimates, pegging BTC at 0.2% of global electricity consumption.)

At any rate, the average cost is just preposterous, even if off by a factor of 3.

[1] see for example https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1w,count

[2] https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/

[3] https://cbeci.org

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>including turning those digital funds into spendable cash. Crypto can be spendable cash. You can buy a coffee or a bar of gold with it, even bullets. Sounds like it can be used as a currency to me. It only takes a willing counterparty. > Crypto is not more energy efficient than existing financial infrastructure. That depends on the place and circumstance. I concede that Kenya was a poor example and I should have use…

> Crypto can be spendable cash. You can buy a coffee or a bar of gold with it, even bullets. Sounds like it can be used as a currency to me. It only takes a willing counterparty. All true, but the same also applies to chickens, screwdrivers, oranges, dogs, cats etc. Just because you can barter with something doesn’t make it a currency. Currencies are better identified by their fungibility (which crypto has), their va…

>Ad hominem attacks undermine your arguments and suggest that you don’t actually have very strong argument, instead you’re forced to attack the character of the person your discussing with, due to an inability to attack their argument. Try harder.

I did attack your arguments, including many other points and I never called you a loser. Quit being so defensive. I said those who continually look for ways to make something not work, rather than finding the ways they do, think like losers. And I back that 100%! The only of the two of us who had made an ad hominem against the other is you, by saying I have an "inability to attack their (your) argument." Thanks hypocrite!

>Unfortunately crypto has descended into little more than get rich quick schemes that take advantage of naïve investors, or produce profit by externalising all of the negative consequences of crypto mining (such as CO2 emissions). Forcing the rest of us to bear that long term cost, for a grifters short term profit.

I'm not a fan of stable coins, but how many people you reckon are buying DAI or USDT with the idea of striking it rich? I hear this sad sad false diatribe over and over, completely ignoring that crypto-currencies are currencies and not investment, with people getting mad that crypto is not an investment that is going to provide returns for naive "investors." And then they go on to attack crypto for not living up to being an investment!

>I used be a fan of crypto, did plenty of trading, bought plenty of pizza etc with it. When to meetups, evangelised crypto to friends and family. Back then it looked realistic that crypto could be a genuine currency, and the concept of DAG was incredibly.

So you were a dogmatist for, and then apparently now a dogmatist against. Try being a neutral pragmatist that doesn't believe crypto is an investment utility but rather one possible financial engine that allows electronic transactions without KYC or centralized authority.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#674
post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to look a lot less like a Ponzi scheme if/when the dollar collapses.

No, it won't. It's a negative-sum system that redistributes wealth from new entrants to old entrants and miners. It's a pyramid. And what exact path do you see a 'dollar collapse'?

Gold and the US dollar, to some extent, fit that characterization as well.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#675
post #526

One good thing to always keep in mind is that China structurally maintains the status quo of a Leninist state --- IMO, the entire reason they banned crypto is that crypto's goal --- relative anonymity, privacy, and freedom of where to move one's money --- goes directly _against_ China's closed, tightly regulated financial system. The bureaucrats at their Ministry of Finance must be absolutely appalled by the idea tha…

I suspect what is triggering this crackdown is that the enforcement of capital controls is becoming more critical as more people are nervous of a financial crisis in China because of bad debt / bad banks. Need to make sure those depositors have no place to go. Though to be honest I don't understand how bitcoin can be used for getting money out of the country. Who would be willing to accept onshore CNY in payment for…

Probably around 80% of wealth is stored as real estate of which 60% is probably is stored as the relative proximity of people. So capital control is as simple as forbidding land from walking away and foreign countries not accepting migration of a billion people. basically a solved problem.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#676
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All fair. But there is no free lunch. The burden of the proof always lies with the person or the entity trying to sell something. The government failed to sell QE and bailouts to the population, the government further failed to sell inflation target at 2% to the population. Had government not failed in selling these concepts we'd not have bitcoin. Government as always can't sell. Otherwise it won't be government.

It unfortunately that there is so much misinformation about things like the bailout. A lot of people think that the US government gave the banks free money when in fact it was just a loan of sorts that the banks had to pay back with interest. In fact the the US government actually made money from the bailout. > In total, U.S. government economic bailouts related to the global financial crisis had federal outflows (ex…

> It unfortunately that there is so much misinformation about things like the bailout

If you are an organization with 6000 nukes, 22T GDP, largest navy and airforce you don't get to cry about "misinformation".

People don't like QE and bailouts. Period. The burden of the proof is always on the person/organization trying to sell something. Always. For sure the public didn't conceive QE or bailouts and didn't try to sell it to the government.

Bitcoin would not exist if QE and bailouts were marketed by master salesmen such as Steve Jobs, Dana White, Don King or David Geffen

We as investors should operate with what is perceived by the population, not textbooks.

Perceptions move the market, and in the case of Bitcoin perception created a market. From 0 to 2 trillions in 10 years.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#677
post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the thing. If there's no fraud involved, it is not a Ponzi scheme. Merely something we do not fully understand. People might have arguments for or against the collapse of cryptocurrencies, but as with any other poorly understood thing your guess is as good as mine.

Any scheme that pays early “investors” with money from new investors will eventually collapse leaving masses who feel they were cheated. When no lies are told yet relevant education or information is held back or obfuscated or buried in pages of legalese or complex computer code - some consider that fraud others not. How will the poor masses that feel about this question? How will they vote?

> Any scheme that pays early “investors” with money from new investors will eventually collapse leaving masses who feel they were cheated.

This statement is obviously false, as there are people born daily.

> information .. buried in code .. some consider that fraud

It doesn't matter that people consider it fraud. It is not fraud neither by definition, nor it is fraud "in spirit of law" (burying it in code does not have the necessary intention to deceive).

You can twist the definition of fraud as much as you want in your mind, but if you do that - you are just a part of ignorant mob with pitchforks.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about zero sum to society. I mean to investors. Land isn't zero sum because you can rent it out.

By that definition you can lend your crypto as well making it positive sum.

When you lend your crypto you're transferring ownership, when you rent you aren't. So crypto loans only make money through interest while land makes rent well over interest.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#679
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not exactly how it works.

Not exactly, that is true - it is rather hard to describe international trade in 140 characters-or-less . It can not be denied that there is a lot of truth to the statement though even if it does not describe all factors of influence: > a system where TPTB get to fudge the books as they see fit This depends on whether the media are in to the party or not but when they are this is mostly true. > impose taxes via inten…

1) Central banks aren’t regulated by the media.

2) The expansion of the money supply is not necessarily inflationary.

3) Inflation is very different from taxation: if you hold cash you’re supposed to circulate it, either by spending it or by investing it. Inflation disincentivizes cash-hoarding, and also deflated the value of any debt you might have.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My desired solution is for central banks and their abusive monetary policy to die in a fire. One way to achieve that is to have many competing currencies that are not controlled by a central bank. If any are a worthy replacement for government fiat people will use it. But, that is precisely why governments will do their best to regulate use of competing currencies. China has the most restrictive capital controls in t…

Free banking is cool until it fails.

The fact that you dont see central banking as a failure is quite telling. A bit like Stockholm syndrome. The Fed has destroyed the value of the dollar and transfered wealth from lower income classes to higher income classes by targetting persistent annual inflation.
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