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China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

dailybusinessgroup.co.uk

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Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course! If the US Army switched to massively inflating Venezuelan Bolivars for use and its share of tax collection, it would have no impact whatsoever on the army or its size! Clearly the one arguing in good faith is the person leading off calling all crypto a ponzi scheme because of several myths you misunderstand. Or given your financial literacy, probably intentional disingenuous portrayal.

You’ve not provided a single citation haha. I understand perfectly well which is why I’ve made the points. Your retorts are argumentative for the sake of argument, and you’re not actually making any sort of case that would address my overarching narrative. Even if I conceded all of your points, which I don’t, my position would remain totally in tact.

Clearly you do not. You continually peddle lies and myths about crypto-CURRENCY (not crypto-investments, which you seem to think they are). You continually make the false presumption that cryptocurrencies are investments, and then proceed to berate a currency because you expect it to behave as an investment when there is no requirement anyone consider them as one (I certainly do not, and think only a moron would consider cryptocurrency is an investment. I wouldn't "Invest" in yuan or euros either, although I would happily use them as a currency.)

When I buy crypto, I EXPECT to lose at the very least the exchange fee(~0.25%). Why on earth would I expect any gains on a currency, or expect there to be little or no risk on something so new and relatively untested versus something like gold?

>> High returns with little or no risk.

This is not a requirement of cryptocurrency. And there is no guarantee they will have a high return. There is certainly no guarantee in anything like the bitcoin whitepaper that you will have no risk to fluctuations in exchange rate with fiat. [1]

>> Unregistered investments.

Currencies are not synonymous with investments. Cryptocurrencies do not have to be peddle as investments, and only a moron would use them that way. [1, look anywhere for the word investment, interest, or appreciation -- you will not find it].

>> Unlicensed sellers.

Whether the government approves of something has no bearing on whether it is a ponzi scheme or not.

>> Secretive, complex strategies.

The implementation of a number of cryptos are both open implementation and open white paper [1]. Hardly secretive. I do agree the closed source ones could certainly be ponzi schemes, and perhaps you could also make an open source ponzi scheme.

>[edit2] So with that in mind, it meets many (but not all) of the classic definition elements.

>1. All returns are generated by bringing new money into the system. The only way someone can make money on Bitcoin is if a new person invests. That money is then distributed to the earlier participant, net of miner fees.

Currencies aren't meant to provide a return. Some people even consider currencies more useful if they're slightly inflationary. But lets examine your statement anyway. All other bitcoin holders appreciate their asset when someone loses their keys (deflation). An individual can make a return at the expense of the others by mining (inflationary creation). Or I could make fiat money on bitcoin by arbitrage and work, like selling coffee for bitcoin in a circumstance where people want it and few others are offering it except in fiat.

>2. There is no actual business underlying.

Just as there is no actual business underlying commodity money? This doesn't make commodity money a ponzi scheme either.

>3. The constant flow of new money is required to keep the price from collapsing because miners extract something like $50M in welfare from the system per day.

Not at all. A constant confidence in the crypto we examine is required to keep the price from collapsing. If no transactions are happening, then we are simply slowly inflating. Some currencies have infinite tail emission (infinite slow inflation) like monero. For bitcoin most coins have already been mined, so the amount of remaining inflation is finite. Even under the fiction that 50 million per day were extracted, it would take about 54 years for the price to collapse (care to imagine how much you would lose on USD if you stuck it in a mattress for 54 years?)

>4. The entire space is unregistered investments hawked by unlicensed sellers.

Crypto-currencies are not generically investments. Yes I know some scam artists promise returns, but this is not a necessary feature of cryptocurrency. For instance, bitcoin and litecoin do not promise any sort of returns, and thus cannot be considered investment vehicle by anyone but speculators (speculators can call anything an investment, including USD).

>It's a negative sum wealth redistribution scheme the takes money from new entrants and gives it to miners and to old entrants. The miner portion is what makes it negative-sum.

The same is said of gold, all the way up to gold miners paying for electricity and workers by liquidating some of their gold which makes it negative sum. Yet gold has been a legitimate store of value, and often currency, for thousands of years -- certainly no ponzi scheme.

[1] https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#662
post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's see: "Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that" "investment fraud" - "induces investors to make purchase or sale decisions on the basis of false information" Major cryptocurrencies do not present "false information", therefore they are not "investment fraud", therefore they are not Ponzi schemes.

Cryptocurrency schemes are public but their technology is complex enough (vs their typical participant) that it is not at all necessary to present false information. If anything it is this fact alone makes cryptocurrencies innovative over traditional fraud schemes. No overt deceit required - only average ignorance and gullibility. Being open, decentralized and harder to stop will likely allow them to scale at least a…

That's the thing. If there's no fraud involved, it is not a Ponzi scheme. Merely something we do not fully understand. People might have arguments for or against the collapse of cryptocurrencies, but as with any other poorly understood thing your guess is as good as mine.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#663
post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure you got this right? Keep in mind that the only way to make money with bitcoin is literally by taking it away from other "investors".

Now apply your idea to dollars, and think about who prints the dollars.

Why do I have to apply the idea to dollars? Nobody is telling me that I will become incredibly rich, without having to put any effort, work or invent anything, if I just buy dollars. Yet the same claim is made about bitcoins, and this is why we must examine whether this claim about bitcoin is true.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#664
post #648
post #597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So he is turning down real investment in renewables in the hopes that other more agreeable investment materializes out of thin air.. meanwhile his plan crashes the price of renewable energy endangering those industries and shrinking the market.. allowing established fossil fuel industries a bigger share. genius.

> So he is turning down real investment in renewables No, he's not. > meanwhile his plan crashes the price of renewable energy endangering those industries and shrinking the market.. allowing established fossil fuel industries a bigger share It seems that you have completely missed the past four decades of renewable energy decreasing in price by a factor of 100x. The result of this decrease was not "endangering those…

>It seems that you have completely missed the past four decades of renewable energy decreasing in price by a factor of 100x.

And it seems you have completely missed the fact that investment from crypto miners helped to bring this efficiency saving about, if there wasn't so much demand, there would be nothing to invest in R&D and infrastructure that inevitably lower prices.

Crypto, or specifically PoW acts like a guarantee of sale under a certain price per KwH. It used to be necessary for governments to guarantee power prices, and offer subsidies to encourage investment in their countries infrastructure. PoW in part replaces this necessity and encourages companies to invest in renewable, efficient, power production.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#665
post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency schemes are public but their technology is complex enough (vs their typical participant) that it is not at all necessary to present false information. If anything it is this fact alone makes cryptocurrencies innovative over traditional fraud schemes. No overt deceit required - only average ignorance and gullibility. Being open, decentralized and harder to stop will likely allow them to scale at least a…

That's the thing. If there's no fraud involved, it is not a Ponzi scheme. Merely something we do not fully understand. People might have arguments for or against the collapse of cryptocurrencies, but as with any other poorly understood thing your guess is as good as mine.

Any scheme that pays early “investors” with money from new investors will eventually collapse leaving masses who feel they were cheated. When no lies are told yet relevant education or information is held back or obfuscated or buried in pages of legalese or complex computer code - some consider that fraud others not. How will the poor masses that feel about this question? How will they vote?

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh.. I don't want to diminish the impact of Chinese action, but US not so long ago banned owning gold ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act ) by individuals. It is only recently that this got relaxed. Government can and do whatever the populace will bear.

45+ years is “not so long ago”?

I do not want to sound difficult and I suppose in today's world it feels like eternity, but 45+ years is barely a full generation's lifetime. But lets forget that for a minute, because I don't want to make about attention spans ( or lack thereof ).

A lot of the things that are happening now are not new. Sure, actors have changed, events have new facade and technology adds an interesting spin to it, but at its core, none of it is new to people who are aware of human history.

Separately, I will add that there are developments where 40 years is genuinely not long. As an example allow me to trot out the change of being gay being classified as a mental disorder in 80s to today's predominant understanding as a fully functioning member of society. That is a stunning evolution of societal mores in a short amount of time.

I suppose I understand that people would like to see instant change, but at certain scales, 45 years is 'not so long ago'. From societal memory point of view, it isn't. Only fool forgets that government can take their property. I will illustrate that further with a geological example. By those timescales, humans just showed up yesterday.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your comment. When the cost of capital is nil then the common expectation is that too much investment drives up inflation and we then have to prioritize and allocate resources. Governments are begging for this to happen. I don't know why but when the central bank intends lower interest rates to overheat the market people somehow stop believing that the market even exists. It's really strange. I mea…

The way I look at it, the point of a market is to convince us to do things we don't want to do that nevertheless other people want us to do. Money is the mechanism for this. When you get paid for something, it sweetens the deal, so that you put up with stuff like going in to work 9-5 and dealing with angry customers and writing unit tests. Prices are an information-carrying mechanism: they tell people which activitie…

When used for productive things debt is good otherwise it is bad. Growing debt can indicate growing trust and confidence in the future. Growing debt can also indicate over confidence and blindness about the future. Economies have debt cycles: https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

Inflation is the economy’s rate of debt forgiveness. Bad when high but good when low but above zero. Without it economies get clogged by debt. A slow rate of debt forgiveness is more economically efficient than bankruptcies or debt jails. Inflation also combats sticky prices by forcing contracts to be regularly renegotiated to supply demand prices. For example wages are hard to adjust down and having inflation do that automatically few % per year is more economically efficient than having to fire workers and replace them.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#668

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you propose as a solution for central banks and monetary policy attempting to operate in structural stagnation [1]? Do you believe digital tulips will maintain their value as real productivity declines due to demographics? Physical cash can be inflated with relatively the same ease as a CBDC through QE. You're seeking a level of control and authority of monetary policy only accessible to nation states. We agr…

You can't solve structural economic problems with monetary policy. That's how you get (hyper)inflation, and that story's been born out dozens of times across history. The solution to real productivity declines is real productivity increases, and the incentive to reallocate your resources into the most productive activities is lacking when the cost of capital is effectively nil and the central bank bails out any misal…

Compound interest over time causes gaps between the rich and poor to grow exponentially. The wider the rich poor gap the less efficient your economy.

Societies that realize this implement debt forgiveness policies such as https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(biblical) and modern bankruptcy and inflation. Societies that fail to do this stagnate, with many in them trapped by debt slavery.

Slow growing stagnant societies lose competitions for resources to societies that implement debt forgiveness. Sometimes stagnant societies implode in civil wars and revolutions as happened in France, Russia, China. This also results in wealth gaps shrinking but at far greater cost.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#669
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has "banned Bitcoin" dozens of times over the last decade This is a false narrative pushed by the Bitcoin cult. It's supposed to create an impression that nothing has changed, so the price should not change.

or it's completely factual? 2013: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-12-05/china-s-p... 2015: https://archive.is/Higoz 2017: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bitcoin-china-idUSKCN1BJ1... 2018: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-eliminates-all-cryptoc... 2021: https://archive.is/s7nbw "China Has Banned Bitcoin 13 Times Since 2012": https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-great-bitcoin-mining-mi...

No, because those are different restrictions of different crypto-related activities.

You basically claim that Bitcoin was banned a month ago in China. But that is not true, it was legal to make Bitcoin transactions.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#670
post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't also opt out of the Swift/Visa/MasterCard climate impact, or the ATM network, or the internet! how many millions of servers are running, day and night, to host millions of terabytes of content where only a fraction ends up being accessed ...and it's a cat video What you can do is use and support the climate friendlier alternatives. There are crypto currencies created with that in mimd

It's true, and I'm allowed to (and do) care about the emissions of those, too. I'm objecting to the idea that I shouldn't be allowed to care (“don't use it duh”) as a non-user. I am encouraged to see the transition to PoS and would love to see PoS overtake PoW, just from a bystander-concerned-about-the-environment perspective.

I do agree that PoW in a big scale is stupid. Those resources could be used to host cloud services, compute big important problems, etc...

PoW by now is basically PoS with extra steps

But, even for the environment, I can't take people thinking it is a good idea govs using PoW, or standard exchange problems, to ban All crypto-currencies. While creating their own fake digital coin

PoS is also not ideal since it keeps promoting the same rules has the old system. Who has more money will keep having more independent if their producing something useful

So I think we still need something new, and someone smart to come up with it

Something that works for big groups, like a combination of localized PoW plus global PoS with PoT. Proof of trust, like most systems work

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