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Home Price to Income Ratio

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131–140 of 704 posts

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#131
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It consistently shocks me how rarely this is brought up as a solution. Price of something too high? Increase the supply.

This is brought up all the time. There is frequently huge opposition from locals anywhere regarding increasing housing supply.

Yeah, this is why SB9/10 work - they override the problem of that vocal minority of locals.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#132
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it's all assets going up, it's not the assets cost more, it's the dollar is worth less. So for all the help and assistance. Housing is LESS affordable than ever before. You cannot infuse trillions of extra dollars into the economy without inflation. There's no magic pill - there must be consequences.

I know this is a common belief in the hilarious world of crypto enthusiasts. But, y'know, we measure inflation, and what you're suggesting is just flat out not true. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

That's CPI, not inflation. CPI has a number of ways that a thumb may be put on the scale, for example hedonic quality adjustments seem to me to be highly subjective.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#133

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

"better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now" They can't. Providing supply will suffer the wrath of BANANA/CAVE/NIMBY anywhere you dream of living. Constraining demand will either get you voted out of office or devastate your political network or both, depending on which policy you attempt. You're competing with a whole planet full of people that want to live here and have more me…

> For 99% of you that means living far away from your preferred locale among people you probably loath.

Parent comment is vitriolic but not actually wrong. Myself, I take great comfort in the idea of huge swaths of liberal, well-educated millennials and xennials migrating out of coastal cities and into small towns across the South and Midwest. Can you work remotely? Want to own your own home on a multi-acre lot for $100k, and live in a place with sunshine and warm weather nine months out of the year?

Sure, you'll end up living in the most conservative parts of deeply red states -- but try it. Live among people you disagree with -- we're all still Americans, it'll be OK -- and if enough of your friends and fellow Ivy alumns make the jump you'd be surprised how easily you could turn Texas or Georgia nicely purple.

We've got to end the big sort, at any cost. And the hilarious difference in cost of living is probably our last, best hope.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#134
post #41

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

1. Residential homes are no longer allowed to be 'investment properties' aka every person(or married couple) can own exactly one house. Corporate entities except for Banks(even then can only own it for the time it takes to sell it in the case of foreclosure) can't either. 2. Only actual Americans can own property in America. Single-fam, multi-fam, land,etc. doesn't matter. Exactly no one needs to rent houses if mulit…

Who builds new homes if builders can't own them pre-sale? I imagine you have a carve out for that, but who qualifies as a builder?

What about people who want to live in cities? How do they come together to build say a small condo building? Do we only allow co-ops? How is that financed?

When you say "Americans", do you only mean citizens or permanent residents? Where do temporary residents live?

How do people move to new cities/states? Where will the new housing come from?

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#136
post #108
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to build more housing. California has historically been terrible about that but SB9 and 10 are significant steps in the right direction.

It consistently shocks me how rarely this is brought up as a solution. Price of something too high? Increase the supply.

Because it doesn't actually work. It helps a tiny little bit, in the places that are actually somewhat constrained (like SF/BayArea specifically). But it's not any kind of significant fix. Housing is an investment asset for stock market folks, it doesn't follow a Econ-101 understanding of "supply" and "demand" in any meaningful way.

The Midwest and the South are both way ahead of California on the whole "just build more housing" thing, for example, and have been for many years. And yeah, it makes us somewhat cheaper than a coastal city if you have California dollars to burn. But our Price-to-Income-Ratio's are still in the high 5-7+ range too, just like everywhere else.

We have basically zero population growth, and every single stray piece of land is getting built on right now (record high construction, record high new housing starts, for the past three years straight) and housing prices still rise 10% to 15% every single year like clockwork, with no end in sight.

"Just build more" sounds really pretty, but that alone will never get housing prices back down to a real-world-affordable figure for most people.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#137
I wouldn’t say we’re in a bubble, even though the numbers look like the last bubble. At least in my local market there’s a small number of home sales being distorted by a handful of people at the top of the income distribution.

What we’re seeing is a lack of housing, not middle class people buying up housing they can’t afford.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#138
post #103

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

The solution is to build more housing. California has historically been terrible about that but SB9 and 10 are significant steps in the right direction.

The solution, like it's been for pretty much all of American history, is to _move_. We're a migrant people; when opportunity calls or the cost of living where you are gets too high, we go west in search of greener, cheaper, less heavily-zoned pastures.

Seems fitting that in the 21st century we flip that on its head. Cost of living in SF or Seattle got you down? Go East, young man! Head down to Texas or east to Ohio, and register to vote when you get there.

Be the change you want to see.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#139

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

"better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now" They can't. Providing supply will suffer the wrath of BANANA/CAVE/NIMBY anywhere you dream of living. Constraining demand will either get you voted out of office or devastate your political network or both, depending on which policy you attempt. You're competing with a whole planet full of people that want to live here and have more me…

And yet no one is promoting vasectomies. I know exactly how to reduce demand without increasing supply, but it'll take about 30 years.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#140
post #39

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

Millenial homeownership is almost at 50% this year. The people priced out are the loudest, but it's not overwhelmingly common in most parts of the US.

It's not so much that they're the loudest as it is that the other 50% of us are busy living in affordable parts of the country and getting on with our lives.
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