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France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

reuters.com

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Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#41

Post by rmm »

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

>>On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning.

It was definitely not sudden. They had been warned many times for growing costs, delays etc.. It may have been 'sudden' in the sense that they didnt think Australia would actually pull through with the threat.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#42

Post by tick_tock_tick »

BurnGpuBurn wrote: post #4
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

They could just leave NATO, see what happens. I hope they do. The alliance clearly doesn't care about anybody but the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO#France

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#43

Post by makomk »

RalfWausE wrote: post #7
inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

I would bet a paycheck on option c) The EU and (especially France and Germany) is not THAT critical of China as the US (and other countries...), and France has a big sense of national pride and no problems acting on it. Is this in any way "good"? I don't know, but realisticaly i CAN see the EU siding more with China than the US in the long run.

Well, the big thing holding up a trade deal with China right now is that China decided to sanction several MEPs and the European Parliament's human rights subcommittee for scrutinizing their forced labour camps in Xinjiang, which the European Parliament of course considered an attack on democracy itself. So if France used its sway to get the EU to align with China, that'd basically demonstrate that the French government's feelings had more power than the pretence of EU democracy.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#44

Post by inglor_cz »

liotier wrote: post #25
inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

Offering closer partnership to India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore might be a viable alternate way forward for France - and they might find it in their interest too. More "indo" than "pacific" though.

India is naturally more inclined to cooperate with the UK, though. Colonial legacies are complicated and Indian elite tends to go study in English-speaking countries, so there is a lot of personal contact. It is much rarer to meet Indian students in continental EU.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#45

Post by corty »

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

France cannot get the EU behind it.

On the original contract in 2016, Germany also bid and in all likelihood could have won, since Germany has far more experience with building non-nuclear subs with Diesel or fuel-cell drives. France had to start the designs almost from scratch since they offered a redesign of their nuclear subs. France desperately wanted the contract and probably only won the bidding by intentionally bidding too low and too quick, downplaying their technical challenges. This behavior of France has bitten various European supposed allies and supposed good neighbors a number of times. Either they got outbid by a phony French bid. Or they were customers of such a bidding process, getting endless delays and price overruns.

So I'd be surprised if there were any substantial EU backing for France in this matter.

Some of the press coverage back then and now: https://thediplomat.com/2016/01/has-germany-lost-the-bid-to-... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-submarines-comp...

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#46

Post by inglor_cz »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #22
inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

d) stand its ground independently, invest in its military to have the capability it needs, work with AUKUS if and when it is in its interests to do so. This includes taking a more 'non-aligned' stance on China, but that'd not be historically new (France was the first Western country to recognise the PRC and De Gaulle even advised Kennedy to do it sooner than later).

French vital interests are in Africa, not in Pacific. And the strategic situation in Sahel isn't good. Given that military budgets are always strained, it makes sense to concentrate on the core challenges and leaving the Pacific be.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#47

Post by sofixa »

google234123 wrote: post #23
tetrisgm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your first sentence is pure speculation, and was refuted by French officials. The second sentence is just hyperbole. I’m sure you can do better!

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-pressures-emerge-in... (from may) https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/call-to-review-submarin... (Jan) mentions walking away. Doubling the price, delays, and changing the terms (reducing local contribution told from 90 to less than 60) aren’t good ways to secure a deal with a partner that was already angry in 2018.

They were aware there were issues, and negotiations happened on how to fix them, with the French leaving them with the impression everything is good. Meanwhile Australia was already negotiating an alternative deal.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#48

Post by kryptiskt »

So they have failed to deliver for five years with huge cost overruns and delays and get all mad when their customer says enough is enough. I wonder if any lessons learned will make it way back to their defense industry, or if playing the victim will suffice for them too.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#49

Post by hsbauauvhabzb »

inglor_cz wrote: post #5
gerty wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

> b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical;

FAUKUS does have a ring to it…

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#50

Post by inglor_cz »

JetSetWilly wrote: post #27

Seems like manufactured outrage from France for the benefit of its electorate. The UK and US are entirely innocent. They have no standing in the Australia-France contract, and the burden of informing France of the cancellation clause being invoked falls entirely on Australia - if they failed to do so and France feels peeved, they should take that up with Australia. The UK and US are entirely irrelevant. Even by the "…

I think they are genuinely shocked, but state of shock is usually a bad one to perform any diplomacy in.
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