France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say • Hacker News Board

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#21

Post by woofie11 » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:04 AM UTC

Balero wrote: post #10

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

> b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; Why is this logical? These partners have already shown that they are going to betray France's trust and lie to them. It would be better to be on your own than have unreliable partners, or worse ones that work against you.

To be fair, France has consistently betrayed its allies, throughout history. The start of WWII is worth looking at, where both France and Britain broke mutual defense treaty after mutual defense treaty appeasing Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War

A lost sale in contrast? That seems more like normal business than lying and betrayal.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#22

Post by mytailorisrich » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:05 AM UTC

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

gerty wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

d) stand its ground independently, invest in its military to have the capability it needs, work with AUKUS if and when it is in its interests to do so. This includes taking a more 'non-aligned' stance on China, but that'd not be historically new (France was the first Western country to recognise the PRC and De Gaulle even advised Kennedy to do it sooner than later).

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#23

Post by google234123 » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:05 AM UTC

tetrisgm wrote: post #16

google234123 wrote: post #12

France was probably aware much earlier that the contract was in jeopardy. Everyone in France being on vacation in July and August didn’t help at the end.

Your first sentence is pure speculation, and was refuted by French officials. The second sentence is just hyperbole. I’m sure you can do better!

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-pressures-emerge-in... (from may)

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/call-to-review-submarin... (Jan) mentions walking away.

Doubling the price, delays, and changing the terms (reducing local contribution told from 90 to less than 60) aren’t good ways to secure a deal with a partner that was already angry in 2018.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#24

Post by willvarfar » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:10 AM UTC

jean_tta wrote: post #19

willvarfar wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO has only ever been a defense alliance. Early in the cold war there were a few senior generals on both sides that thought the US could or should make a first strike against Russia. But the leadership and the populous on both sides of the curtain never thought that was what it was all about at all. The aggressor was always going to be Russia invading western Europe, and NATO was always about defending it.

Including, of course, the defensive invasion of Afghanistan using article 5.

There have been a long history of "hot" confrontations and proxy wars like Korea, Cuba and Angola, Vietnam, the Russians in Afghanistan and then the US in Afghanistan etc.

But go ask random people on streets in the US, Russia or Europe, and they will focus on the "cold war" and the iron curtain and NATO's defense of the west against the threat of Soviet expansion.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#25

Post by liotier » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:12 AM UTC

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

gerty wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

Offering closer partnership to India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore might be a viable alternate way forward for France - and they might find it in their interest too. More "indo" than "pacific" though.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#26

Post by gatronicus » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:13 AM UTC

One article said that the France contract was about 7 bil per diesel sub, while the new one will be 4 bil per nuclear sub.

I can't imagine how you can justify 7 bil for a diesel sub.

Is it possible that France though that Aus had no alternative and ran the price up?

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#27

Post by JetSetWilly » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:16 AM UTC

Seems like manufactured outrage from France for the benefit of its electorate. The UK and US are entirely innocent. They have no standing in the Australia-France contract, and the burden of informing France of the cancellation clause being invoked falls entirely on Australia - if they failed to do so and France feels peeved, they should take that up with Australia. The UK and US are entirely irrelevant.

Even by the "do unto others as you would have them do unto you" standard of morality - France would do exactly the same as the UK and US have if the shoe was on the other foot.

I do wonder to what extent if any France being instrumental in interdicting vaccines bound for Australia in March had on this outcome. I recall that around the same time the UK exported vaccines to Australia (see [1] ). Given it was Australia that approached the UK to initiate this deal towards the end of march, it may not have been the smartest move by France to demonstrate that they are not reliable and are perfectly willing to shaft Australia when the chips are down.

But of course we don't know if there was any relation at all between those events, the timings are suspicious tho.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/australia-receives-astrazeneca-vaccine...

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#28

Post by roenxi » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:16 AM UTC

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #20

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

> a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. It's more that Caledonia could chose to leave. But that only marginaly change the issue. France has other territories in the Pacific. > b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; That would be very illogical. France interests are not aligned with the USA. Also they are a nuclear country with a permanent seat on the UN security council. They will never be a junior…

> lobby to get the EU - Australia free trade agreement severely limited then carry on as usual

This type of response always baffles me. Australia here is not buying what France is selling. If they object to that, making it harder for Australians to buy other things France is selling is the opposite of clever.

And in reverse - Australia sells food and raw materials. Under what circumstances is it bad for France to trade bits of paper for actually useful physical goods?

Restricting trade is cutting of the nose to spite the face. Australia sells commodities, we don't care if any individual block trades with us. China tried clamping down on trade with Australia and it didn't achieve much. They've got to buy from someone else, that someone else's customers becomes Australia's customers.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#29

Post by zaphirplane » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:16 AM UTC

gerty wrote: post #3

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

What’s the strategy that was wiped ? AFAICT this is about a canceled contract and the secrecy of the negotiations.

The French strategy can’t possible be based on selling submarines to a continent country bordering its atolls

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#30

Post by mytailorisrich » Mon, Sep 20, 2021, 9:17 AM UTC

liotier wrote: post #25

inglor_cz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…

Offering closer partnership to India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore might be a viable alternate way forward for France - and they might find it in their interest too. More "indo" than "pacific" though.

They've already been working on this with India [1]. They have been working on building partnerships in the region for years, with a focus on India and Australia.

This is why they are deeply pissed off beyond the loss of this submarines deal. Basically the US have 'torpedoed' a big part of their long term strategy here.

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/whats-behind-the-rising-indi...