Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

journals.asm.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 217 posts

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#181

Post by lamontcg »

goolulusaurs wrote: post #105

Why the hell would you put a virology lab in the middle of a huge city with millions of people? I am not a virologist, but to me it seems like if covid was a lab-leak then it could have been avoided very easily just by having the lab in the middle of nowhere, like in the desert or the artic. Instead of the whole world having to go into lock down, with millions dying, just put the lab in a remote location, and make it…

"So you've just completed your doctorate degree, how would you like to move to Bedford, WY?"

Researchers are going to want a city with libraries, hospitals, manufacturing, restaurants, etc.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#182

Post by tigershark »

cxpeople wrote: post #124
bildung wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Response type absolutely matters. Sweden has 10x the death rate of Norway, for example. Norway, Finland, Denmark, even Cuba, a poor country with 3x the population density of the US is significantly below 700. Australia stands at 45, not 700, BTW.

Sweden has the same numbers as Germany. Sweden and Germany are very similar with respect to culture, clustering of people in cities, percentage of people with a migration background. Norway and Sweden are not. Turns out that Sweden and Germany have similar results: https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-abou...

Yeah, right. Let’s compare Sweden with 10M people and a very low population density with Germany with 83M people and 10 times the population density instead of Norway that has comparable population and density and 10 times less deaths just because it helps your narrative. Such comments spreading misinformation should not be allowed at all here in my opinion.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#183

Post by taeric »

varelse wrote: post #180
taeric wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there good patterns here? Last I looked, it seemed more that there were nations that just hadn't been hit, yet. Especially as more of the heavy hit nations get it under control with vaccines, unless full isolation is the plan for the other nations, I'm not seeing an end game.

Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).

While I agree with those points, my understanding is that the evidence is actually rather thin right now.

About the only pattern that has consistently played out, is nations getting cocky and then getting smashed.

And this doesn't address the end game. Vaccines are about the only route that makes sense. The rest seems to be akin to thinking condoms alone could solve STDs. They definitely help. They aren't getting is to the end, though.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#184

Post by varelse »

taeric wrote: post #183
varelse wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).

While I agree with those points, my understanding is that the evidence is actually rather thin right now. About the only pattern that has consistently played out, is nations getting cocky and then getting smashed. And this doesn't address the end game. Vaccines are about the only route that makes sense. The rest seems to be akin to thinking condoms alone could solve STDs. They definitely help. They aren't getting is…

Condoms bought time to come up with a treatment for HIV in the same way that masks bought time for us to arrive at vaccines, no?

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#185

Post by tigershark »

rayiner wrote: post #78
m0llusk wrote: post #57

The article notes that a lab leak or gain of function research or both are suspected because research with cultivated influenza strains was common at that time. In contrast, attempts by researchers at Wuhan to consistently cultivate coronavirus were unsuccessful. That is why they decided to work with chimeras instead of pursuing gain of function research. All of this focus on the point of origin is misplaced. We know…

> All of this focus on the point of origin is misplaced. We know that there will be new viruses. What matters is how we respond to them. In this case the US response was completely botched. It’s worth talking about better versus worse covid response, but that’s missing the forest for the trees. Most of the G7 didn’t do that much better: from Germany to Italy, and including the US, they’re all in the 1,200 to 2,200 de…

Your numbers are completely and utterly wrong, please stop spreading misinformation.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#186

Post by 8note »

1cvmask wrote: post #173
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your France vs Sweden statistic disturbed me so I looked into it and Sweden seems to have by far the highest Covid deaths in the Nordic countries. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1113834/cumulative-coron... I’d like a per capita chart but I can’t find one. Norway has about half the population of Sweden and has 18x less Covid deaths though. Maybe France and Sweden are too different to compare directly? https://bmc…

The way countries measure covid deaths is also relevant. Unless it has changed you were counted as a covid death in Sweden if you died in a car accident and happened to have covid. Norway would count you as a car accident death in their statistics.

It's the same thing with a gunshot, you have been shot in the heart, but you died due to lack of oxygen in your brain, and thus you did not die of a gunshot wound

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#187

Post by taeric »

varelse wrote: post #184
taeric wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with those points, my understanding is that the evidence is actually rather thin right now. About the only pattern that has consistently played out, is nations getting cocky and then getting smashed. And this doesn't address the end game. Vaccines are about the only route that makes sense. The rest seems to be akin to thinking condoms alone could solve STDs. They definitely help. They aren't getting is…

Condoms bought time to come up with a treatment for HIV in the same way that masks bought time for us to arrive at vaccines, no?

I mean... Maybe? I don't think I ever saw evidence that they moved that needle. And to your previous point, a ton of damage came from politicizing the issue.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#188

Post by 8note »

varelse wrote: post #180
taeric wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there good patterns here? Last I looked, it seemed more that there were nations that just hadn't been hit, yet. Especially as more of the heavy hit nations get it under control with vaccines, unless full isolation is the plan for the other nations, I'm not seeing an end game.

Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).

Pandemic response is policies. That's directly political.

The problem is that various countries' (USA in particular) political institutions are in crises and facing collapse.

So instead, the pattern instead, is embrace authoritarian politics and do what's dictated to you unquestioningly.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#189

Post by 8note »

varelse wrote: post #119
rossdavidh wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever one thinks the optimal response to a pandemic should be, the fact that several nations of western Europe (e.g. France) with much different policies, have per capita mortality the same or higher, suggests that the policies used were not a major determinant of the outcome. If you plot per capita mortality for France and Sweden, they are almost identical, swapping places five times so far. Currently Sweden is s…

Why not focus instead on countries that did get this under control then? Some of them are even western.

From a practical standpoint, different countries are really different both in culture and infrastructure.

What worked in China was welding people into their houses, but that's not going to work of most people don't have metal doors

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#190

Post by 8note »

lettergram wrote: post #77
ImaCake wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America has a history of responding poorly to pandemics. They let HIV rip through their population before getting serious about it. Regan famously denied it was even happening. It is interesting to contrast this with Australia's quick public health response that saved a lot of lives. It is easy to see similarities with COVID responses, but two timepoints and n=2 do not make for quality statistics. Hopefully the USA d…

The nature of the USA is not to have a federal response. A fairer way to review this is at the state level. That being said, Fauci lead the charge on the AIDS pandemic and this one ...

That is a failing of the USA, considering that states don't have border controls between them
Post reply on HN