The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#171

Post by Zababa » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 4:12 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #101

m0llusk wrote: post #57

The article notes that a lab leak or gain of function research or both are suspected because research with cultivated influenza strains was common at that time. In contrast, attempts by researchers at Wuhan to consistently cultivate coronavirus were unsuccessful. That is why they decided to work with chimeras instead of pursuing gain of function research. All of this focus on the point of origin is misplaced. We know…

Whatever one thinks the optimal response to a pandemic should be, the fact that several nations of western Europe (e.g. France) with much different policies, have per capita mortality the same or higher, suggests that the policies used were not a major determinant of the outcome. If you plot per capita mortality for France and Sweden, they are almost identical, swapping places five times so far. Currently Sweden is s…

France had more death that it could because the governement refused to rely on private hospitals, to maintain the narrative than the budget cuts on public health didn't prevent them from doing their work.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#172

Post by varelse » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 4:14 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #126

varelse wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not focus instead on countries that did get this under control then? Some of them are even western.

You mean island countries? South Korea is essentially an Island, since it has been completely shut off from NK for decades.

If instead of studying the winners you obsess on justifying why you are a loser then it seems unlikely you will find success in tech or any other endeavor. Are they now offering a degree in excuses and rationalizations?

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#173

Post by 1cvmask » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 4:19 PM UTC

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #134

rossdavidh wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever one thinks the optimal response to a pandemic should be, the fact that several nations of western Europe (e.g. France) with much different policies, have per capita mortality the same or higher, suggests that the policies used were not a major determinant of the outcome. If you plot per capita mortality for France and Sweden, they are almost identical, swapping places five times so far. Currently Sweden is s…

Your France vs Sweden statistic disturbed me so I looked into it and Sweden seems to have by far the highest Covid deaths in the Nordic countries. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1113834/cumulative-coron... I’d like a per capita chart but I can’t find one. Norway has about half the population of Sweden and has 18x less Covid deaths though. Maybe France and Sweden are too different to compare directly? https://bmc…

The way countries measure covid deaths is also relevant.

Unless it has changed you were counted as a covid death in Sweden if you died in a car accident and happened to have covid. Norway would count you as a car accident death in their statistics.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#174

Post by nradov » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

paulmd wrote: post #167

nradov wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters. Zoonotic viruses that jump to humans naturally tend to be less well adapted to human biology, and thus less contagious. That potentially gives us more time to respond before they evolve really dangerous human adapted variants. Whereas GoF research using human tissue or transgenic animals can produce viruses that are perfectly adapted to humans right out of the gate.

hey, aren't you the "kids without comorbid conditions are not at serious risk from covid" guy? how's it going with that? And sheesh, to think you were the one calling others ignorant… still giving out medical advice I see! ;)

What a bizarre, off-topic comment. Why would you think that a discussion about the risks of GoF research constitutes medical advice?

We are fortunate that most children are at minimal risk from COVID-19 death. The CDC estimated the infection fatality rate for the 0-17 age group at about 0.001%. Most of those who died had a serious underlying condition such as obesity, diabetes, asthma, cancer, or congenital heart disease.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02423-8

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#175

Post by ameminator » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 4:55 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #61

ameminator wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would like to point out that the same Winnipeg lab discussed above, seems to have been infiltrated by the Chinese military [0]. If this doesn't concern you, I'd like to bring to mind that our current pandemic is suspected to have been leaked from a lab in China. That's without discussing any of the bioweapon fears or fear of war between the West and China... [0] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-chin…

Also just to illustrate that military labs can screw up a worker at Porton Down, the UK one got bit by a ferret with coronavirus last year, amongst over 100 safety breaches https://archive.ph/IRrgT#selection-867.72-867.83

Very fair point. More and more it seems very dangerous to do work like this, even with all the safety measures. At the same time, I suspect it's a race to the bottom with bioweapons research - no other explanation makes sense to me on why these labs exist.

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#176

Post by mardifoufs » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

paulmd wrote: post #167

nradov wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters. Zoonotic viruses that jump to humans naturally tend to be less well adapted to human biology, and thus less contagious. That potentially gives us more time to respond before they evolve really dangerous human adapted variants. Whereas GoF research using human tissue or transgenic animals can produce viruses that are perfectly adapted to humans right out of the gate.

hey, aren't you the "kids without comorbid conditions are not at serious risk from covid" guy? how's it going with that? And sheesh, to think you were the one calling others ignorant… still giving out medical advice I see! ;)

He'd still be right. Or are you saying kids without comorbidities are at a serious risk of dying? Because that would be literal misinformation

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#177

Post by ameminator » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 5:10 PM UTC

photochemsyn wrote: post #157

ameminator wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. It only provides evidence that a top member of the Chinese military was working with the lab (specifically with Ebola variants), that this was only discovered after he had access to the lab and that the RCMP are not releasing details on their investigation on the extent that "intellectual property" has been passed on. So, you're right, maybe I should have left it at "infiltrated by the Chinese military"…

I don't think the person made any attempt to hide their affiliation, did they? This kind of international cooperation on infectious disease is pretty normal, i.e. that's how smallpox was eradicated, and it's also normal for military branches to have their medical services work on this as well. The issue, of course, is whether this is also cover for development of nation-state biological warfare programs, as this was…

Well, it does appear that the Canadian government only discovered that scientist was actually a Major-General in the Chinese army after he sent something like 15 vials of biomatter to the (one and only) Wuhan Institute of Virology without authorization.

The extent of this leak also appears to be under a "Public Health Gag Order", presumably to hide the ineptitude of Canadian security procedures and to avoid public panic at how extensive this leak is. [0]

I only heard about this story after the public health official responsible for the whole thing refused to appear before the Canadian government and give details on what happened. [1]

[0] https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/09/17/canada-bsl4-virology-...

[1] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-president-o...

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#178

Post by nradov » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 5:17 PM UTC

slibhb wrote: post #104

m0llusk wrote: post #57

The article notes that a lab leak or gain of function research or both are suspected because research with cultivated influenza strains was common at that time. In contrast, attempts by researchers at Wuhan to consistently cultivate coronavirus were unsuccessful. That is why they decided to work with chimeras instead of pursuing gain of function research. All of this focus on the point of origin is misplaced. We know…

> All of this focus on the point of origin is misplaced. We know that there will be new viruses. What matters is how we respond to them. In this case the US response was completely botched. As far as I can tell, there are no grounds for claiming that the response to covid was botched. Botched compared to what? Also, when people talk like this, they always end up saying that we should respond to novel viruses by locki…

Indeed SARS-CoV-2 had already spread to multiple countries at least by December 2019, and possibly earlier. That was way before anyone seriously proposed quarantines and travel bans.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#179

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 5:42 PM UTC

alanfranz wrote: post #163

EGreg wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mentioned HIV in my comment, speaking about recent. The reply mentioned all kinds of viruses besides HIV that weren’t recent — so it was a strawman.

… and yet hiv doesn’t spread by simple being close to somebody. How can you say it’s as much as contagious as covid?

[deleted]

Re: The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate (2015)

#180

Post by varelse » Sun, Sep 19, 2021, 5:52 PM UTC

taeric wrote: post #165

varelse wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not focus instead on countries that did get this under control then? Some of them are even western.

Are there good patterns here? Last I looked, it seemed more that there were nations that just hadn't been hit, yet. Especially as more of the heavy hit nations get it under control with vaccines, unless full isolation is the plan for the other nations, I'm not seeing an end game.

Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately

I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).