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France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

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Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#121
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the COVID slowed down the open source development scene. For example, we didn't see many JavaScript frameworks these last two years.

I hope it slows down. I never understood why web devs feel the need to reinvent their entire stack annually

I think people were genuinely looking for good patterns, and still are in a way.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#122
post #11

It looks like the vaunted experience of Biden and his team has not translated into any sort of deft policymaking, particularly in foreign policy. The messy pullout out of Afghanistan, followed by this scuttling of the deal in progress between Australia and France have reinforced the notion that Uncle Sam can not be relied upon, even by his closest allies. Pretty surefire way of helping fence-sitters become client sta…

Derna forever! EDIT: Sorry for the low-effort riffing. I was being wry. The U.S. won a decisive victory at Derna and, in the aftermath of the diplomatic resolution resulting from that victory, promptly abandoned our allies, without pay, in enemy territory. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Derna_(1805) It is my opinion that we are unreliable, and it's deeply painful when diplomats squander gains made at the c…

You shouldn't let downvotes cow you into issuing mea culpas. Stand your ground and ignore the loss of imaginary internet points :)

It is deeply unjust that old farts (who no longer even send their own children into combat; the current president is a fortunate exception) instigate futile wars and then blunder their way out of them by essentially capitulating more or less completely. This has been especially true in Iraq where we have handed the country on a platter to Iran, and also in Afghanistan where we do not even know if future terrorists will not be sheltered.

But I still believe that what Churchill (supposedly) said about us is essentially correct: "Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#123
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've also been noticing a growing political atmosphere that is in opposition to SV norms Genuinly curious, what are "SV norms"? I think most of the people here don't come from SV, and I think this has been the case for a large part of HN existance, but I have nothing to prove it.

There's always been a heavy SV startup scene slant to the user base here, especially around YC incubated companies. The politics have historically been a sort of hybrid Cyber Libertarian/California Progressivism. I sense the SV bias is fading away and also that the politics (tech focused and otherwise) have very much evolved from where they were in 2007. For example, I detect a conservative element here that Reddit h…

I wonder if part of it is also due to people getting older.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that the user base here has been deteriorating and the focus has been drifting away from the SV startup scene. I've also been noticing a growing political atmosphere that is in opposition to SV norms. A sign of the times probably, but I also suspect that HN's usefulness to Ycombinator is fading.

> Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I think after 14 years here we're allowed a moment of self-reflection.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#125

My observation: 1- US probably predicts that China is gonna breakthrough the first island chain in the next 10 years. 2- France needs to reconsider her Indo-Pacific stratrgy because Aussi explicitly shows that it's going all in with US instead of trying to follow some sort of independent strategy. 3- Win for whoever in EU who supports self defense and a more consolidated Europe. 4- First time a non nuclear country (A…

Point #4. Distinction we need to make is that Australia will obtain Nuclear-powered subs, not nuclear weapons. I haven’t seen what “Nuclear Sub” entails with regards to this contract anywhere so please correct me if I am wrong. It’s not breaking the non-proliferation treaty.

Yes it's nuclear powered but the argument stands.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is Australia's largest trade partner, and China owns tons of Australian real estate (residential and industrial), and one out of 20 Australians considers themselves of Chinese ancestry. It doesn't seem to make much sense to conceive of Australia and China as submarine warfare opponents.

We are very protective of our territorial waters, not all submarine usage is warfare.

Lol, no one is using nuclear subs to defend territorial waters. Their job is to help the US run a blockade against China and it's trading partners, nothing else.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#127
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn’t just that Australia cancelled the deal and made a new one with someone else. It is they kept their plans secret from France instead of letting them know about it and giving them a chance to make a counter-offer or save some face. France has nuclear submarines too, so maybe France could still have played some role? Maybe AUKUS could have been AFUKUS? They didn’t allow France into the negotiation room, and the…

Looks to me like political hardball being played and it’s surprising France (and to a lesser extent the EU). Frankly, France and the EU have been trying to straddle a middle ground between the US and China, and strategically Europe is mostly irrelevant outside of the UK (yes I know France can project some power I’m not downplaying them) but they have been dragging their feet and the action is just not going to be in…

Actually, France has far more territory in the Pacific than the UK, and better positioned too. The UK is part on the basis of historical ties, not because someone looked at a map and said "hey, that guy controls some important bits".

It also seems distressingly naive to say "it's been two days and nothing's happened, so nobody cares" when talking about the EU reaction. The only fast EU action you ever get is the statements, and those have been supportive of France. The interesting thing is to see what happens this spring when France has the EU presidency.

Anyway, the big benefit of NATO is to keep Europe and the US aligned; Europe has lived with Russia for a long time before NATO existed and the big trouble in Europe was about keeping whatever nations where large at the time from attacking each other.

I don't see the US and Russia getting along much better, precisely because, as you say, Americans don't think they need to respect the Russians very much, a judgment which the Russians don't agree with.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#128
post #39

There's no question that nuclear subs are more appropriate for Australia, especially against a sophisticated opponent like China. Hopefully USA and Australia can compensate France in some way to maintain their prestige.

China is Australia's largest trade partner, and China owns tons of Australian real estate (residential and industrial), and one out of 20 Australians considers themselves of Chinese ancestry. It doesn't seem to make much sense to conceive of Australia and China as submarine warfare opponents.

China is already starting to leverage that trade with Australia to push demands that are fundamentally incompatible with Australia's status as a democratic, independent country, plus they've been carrying out aggressive military expansionist manoeuvrers that are pissing off much closer regional allies. France and other EU countries still have this idea that they can somehow balance themselves between China and the US, despite China already openly throwing its weight around against elected politicians who so much as criticise it.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#129
post #87
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well... I feel we got screwed twice !

Does a NATO county selling weapons to a NATO strategic adversary not seem mildly questionable on its own?

These ships are not a real problem. The credible part of Russian navy is nuclear submarines. Russian surface navy is not, and won't be a threat to Nato, with or without them.

There isn't really a country theatened by Russia where sea is a relevant theater - it's always a land border

Pales in comparison with amount of US weapons left in middle east, supplied to Saudi, etc. The diffetence is Russia has some standards, they don't do things like 9/11.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#130

It seems like a bit of an overreaction. Is shipbuilding that important to France?

It isn’t just that Australia cancelled the deal and made a new one with someone else. It is they kept their plans secret from France instead of letting them know about it and giving them a chance to make a counter-offer or save some face. France has nuclear submarines too, so maybe France could still have played some role? Maybe AUKUS could have been AFUKUS? They didn’t allow France into the negotiation room, and the…

French nuclear submarines require refuelling part way through their operating life, US and UK ones don't. Australia doesn't have or want to develop the domestic nuclear power industry to be able to do this itself.
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