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France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

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Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#111

Post by dirtyid »

markus_zhang wrote: post #82

My observation: 1- US probably predicts that China is gonna breakthrough the first island chain in the next 10 years. 2- France needs to reconsider her Indo-Pacific stratrgy because Aussi explicitly shows that it's going all in with US instead of trying to follow some sort of independent strategy. 3- Win for whoever in EU who supports self defense and a more consolidated Europe. 4- First time a non nuclear country (A…

>1- US probably predicts that China is gonna breakthrough the first island chain in the next 10 years.

I think the nuke boats / unicorn tech transfer is sweetner for AU hosting more US assets. Starting ASAP. Just announced more US bombers will be stationed down under. With bombers come ABM, and with ABM, might as well as throw in IRBMs. IMO, it's foot in door for improve US positioning in AU, who has already sunk cost too much into US orbit that the only thing left is to double down. PineGap, Geraldton, Exmouth communication hubs, US is absurdly dependent on AU facilities for Indo-Pac operations. Aforementioned facilities will be targeted by PRC if US containment efforts become kinetic. Ditto with IRBMs, every other country in region has rejected to host because sigifnicant US assets paints target for PRC, but AU is on the hitlist due to existing assets by default.

E: To complete thought, these subs are distraction until they leave the drydock. Chance of smooth aquisition process is 0. At least 8, i.e. only 2-3 deployable at a time. Realistically won't be ready by 2050s if ever since AU has no indigenous nuke industry and struggled with the Collins sub construction. PRC shipyards is primed to launch 2 SSNs per year once design finalized. 6:1 disparity in hulls + host of unmanned systems. A few nuke subs won't shift strategic landscape that much in 30-40 years, but immediate US basing will.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#112

Post by sudosysgen »

systemvoltage wrote: post #108
markus_zhang wrote: post #82

My observation: 1- US probably predicts that China is gonna breakthrough the first island chain in the next 10 years. 2- France needs to reconsider her Indo-Pacific stratrgy because Aussi explicitly shows that it's going all in with US instead of trying to follow some sort of independent strategy. 3- Win for whoever in EU who supports self defense and a more consolidated Europe. 4- First time a non nuclear country (A…

Point #4. Distinction we need to make is that Australia will obtain Nuclear-powered subs, not nuclear weapons. I haven’t seen what “Nuclear Sub” entails with regards to this contract anywhere so please correct me if I am wrong. It’s not breaking the non-proliferation treaty.

It entails in the case of US subs 95% enrichment uranium.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#113

Post by rmk »

jonnybgood wrote: post #104
rmk wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the military hardware that I'm referring to, but the treatment of a longstanding ally that helped found the nation. Did the US participate in the tender? It appears to me that they just swooped in and offered the subs that had been picked over Germany and Japan's proposed subs. The French aren't recalling their diplomats from Germany and Japan, are they?

France, our long-standing ally, has no interest in providing support to the US against China’s aggression. Let’s deal with the reality of modern day geopolitics and not that of over 200 years ago.

That's exactly what has happened here, but it's difficult to see how this improves "America's standing in the world" vis-a-vis Trump. Anthony Blinken is supposedly a seasoned diplomat vs. Rex Tillerson or Pompeo, not to mention the clearly more experienced Biden. Is this hamfisted diplomacy what we get by replacing Trump? Not much finesse there no matter who's occupying the hot seat, it appears.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#114

Post by futureshock »

Zababa wrote: post #34
dougmwne wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that the user base here has been deteriorating and the focus has been drifting away from the SV startup scene. I've also been noticing a growing political atmosphere that is in opposition to SV norms. A sign of the times probably, but I also suspect that HN's usefulness to Ycombinator is fading.

> I've also been noticing a growing political atmosphere that is in opposition to SV norms Genuinly curious, what are "SV norms"? I think most of the people here don't come from SV, and I think this has been the case for a large part of HN existance, but I have nothing to prove it.

There's always been a heavy SV startup scene slant to the user base here, especially around YC incubated companies. The politics have historically been a sort of hybrid Cyber Libertarian/California Progressivism. I sense the SV bias is fading away and also that the politics (tech focused and otherwise) have very much evolved from where they were in 2007. For example, I detect a conservative element here that Reddit has actively been trying to expunge. I think it's mainly a result of the moderation probably taking a more permissive approach and the US political climate getting ever more divisive. Plus, there just seems like there's less to talk about in the startup scene these days, mobile is now long in the tooth and much of the focus has shifted to maturing regulation.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#115

Post by make3 »

tmilard wrote: post #55
gdy wrote: post #28

I wonder what French think now about their cancelling of the Mistral deal with Russia [0] under American pressure [1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistral-class_amphibious_assau... [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-russia-mistral-idU...

Well... I feel we got screwed twice !

trying to sell weapons to Russia, an aggressive total dictatorship, you deserved that one

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#116

Post by allemagne »

ekabod wrote: post #19
allemagne wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's always about domestic politics. Macron doesn't want to look weak in the leadup to the 2022 election, and it's not hard to see why France would be upset here.

When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?

Not sure what you're trying to poke at here, so I'll just clarify.

Basically any diplomatic actions that on their face appear to be overreactions, or intense provocations, are better understood as communicating something to a domestic audience in a context that rewards it.

Classic example is "wolf warrior diplomacy", where tweets from Chinese officials can seem to indicate that the PLA is about to deploy tanks when in reality it's just a diplomat trying to look as nationalistic as they can for their bosses' approval.

Or when France opposed the Iraq War in 2003, the "Freedom Fries" nonsense in America was really more about the general patriotic hysteria of the moment rather than a sign that there was any enduring hatred for France.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#117

Post by dustintrex »

emmelaich wrote: post #102
tkojames wrote: post #16

It is super laughable because the nuclear powered version that they are building for themselves was a fixed bid contract for something like 10 billion for 8 subs.. and the Australian contract keeps going up and up something like 35 billion for ten subs. The diesel sub for Australia is based on the nuclear sub that they signed the fixed bid contract for. Anybody with half brain can tell they are making up the lost of…

Australian submarine situation has been a shit-show for 40 years. Glad its all over.

If Labor wins the next election, it's quite probable that they pull the plug on this deal.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#118

Post by Leparamour »

ekabod wrote: post #19
allemagne wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's always about domestic politics. Macron doesn't want to look weak in the leadup to the 2022 election, and it's not hard to see why France would be upset here.

When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?

> When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?

No, that was about personal revenge for the press eviscerating her and calling her the "Ice Queen"[1] after an interview segment was shown on TV in which Merkel can be seen rejecting a refugee girl's teary-eyed plead to bend the asylum law solely for her.

[1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKBa2VvUMAE1Ymv?format=jpg&name=...

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/29/a-refugees-hope...

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#119

Post by dougmwne »

Dobbs wrote: post #40
dougmwne wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that the user base here has been deteriorating and the focus has been drifting away from the SV startup scene. I've also been noticing a growing political atmosphere that is in opposition to SV norms. A sign of the times probably, but I also suspect that HN's usefulness to Ycombinator is fading.

Totally agree, if you want proof of the paradox of tolerance look around HN. In the sake of being tolerant to misogynistic, homophobic, racist, and transphobic posts and comments it has chased away many people leaving more and more the ugliness behind. Most women, and trans people I know despise and avoid the site at this point. All you have to do is look at the comments any time something even tangentially related t…

You are getting downvoted, but I think you hit the nail on the head there. There is an increasingly strong "disaffected male" contingent here. It's allowed because we're extra adult here and can handle some divergent opinions, at least so the theory goes. Unfortunately it's starting to feel downright gross at times and I can absolutely understand why a woman would not feel welcome here. These are the hard to swallow pills, but it's happening all the same.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#120

Post by sudosysgen »

dirtyid wrote: post #105
neltnerb wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is amazing, is it always about money? Surely there are other examples.

>always about money Usually the messier politics behind the scenes, in this case there was little notification, embarrassed French Pacific ambitions (France has substantial territory/EEZ holdings next to Australia), and a few months before the French election. Also diplomatically a dick move for transatlantic relationship, EU just announced their Indo-Pacific strategy. Last time in 1995 also had AU messing with Frenc…

US industrial espionage on the level of China and France (using Echelon and the rest of the NSA) was uncovered in the Snowden leaks.

It's also about the US trying to force Australia to commit to an anti-China policy while the conservative government is in power.

Australia announced support to the US in the region so it's also because of that.

It's just dirty geopolitics. The US is trying to tie in Australia before they realize that it's not worth massive expense to defend their trade routes from China. When those trades routes are... With China.

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