France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal • Hacker News Board

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#91

Post by allemagne » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:17 PM UTC

rmk wrote: post #11

It looks like the vaunted experience of Biden and his team has not translated into any sort of deft policymaking, particularly in foreign policy. The messy pullout out of Afghanistan, followed by this scuttling of the deal in progress between Australia and France have reinforced the notion that Uncle Sam can not be relied upon, even by his closest allies. Pretty surefire way of helping fence-sitters become client sta…

It's only worth comparing these decisions with the credible alternatives. In Afghanistan, America had to choose between a messy pullout or a swift escalation with the Taliban. Biden himself really was left with a matter of months to execute on either, and it was never going to be escalation.

It could be the case for one reason or another, but I find it pretty hard to believe that President Trump/Romney/Obama/Clinton/Sanders/Buttigieg would have really made it go any better, as though the "withdraw from Afghanistan gracefully" button is right next to "lower the gas prices" in the Oval Office. I am almost certain it would have gone worse under some of them.

By pissing off the French and bolstering Australia, it could just as easily be argued that Biden was being shrewd in signaling his seriousness about the Asia-Pacific by spending down some political capital in France. I think that will end up depending on how contained the fallout from this will be, but it's not like the rest of America and France's shared interests just evaporated.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#92

Post by ldargin » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:17 PM UTC

hulahoof wrote: post #71

droopyEyelids wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is Australia's largest trade partner, and China owns tons of Australian real estate (residential and industrial), and one out of 20 Australians considers themselves of Chinese ancestry. It doesn't seem to make much sense to conceive of Australia and China as submarine warfare opponents.

We are very protective of our territorial waters, not all submarine usage is warfare.

Conventional subs are quieter than nuclear subs, so are for defending coastal waters not far from port. But nuclear subs project more power, since they can stay underwater for months at a time.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#93

Post by dumdumdumdum » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:18 PM UTC

A little part of me was hoping the objection was on the grounds that we shouldn't be increasing the number of hot nuclear weapons, but of-course it's just a turf war.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#94

Post by ericmay » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:20 PM UTC

skissane wrote: post #33

trynumber9 wrote: post #3

It seems like a bit of an overreaction. Is shipbuilding that important to France?

It isn’t just that Australia cancelled the deal and made a new one with someone else. It is they kept their plans secret from France instead of letting them know about it and giving them a chance to make a counter-offer or save some face. France has nuclear submarines too, so maybe France could still have played some role? Maybe AUKUS could have been AFUKUS? They didn’t allow France into the negotiation room, and the…

Looks to me like political hardball being played and it’s surprising France (and to a lesser extent the EU). Frankly, France and the EU have been trying to straddle a middle ground between the US and China, and strategically Europe is mostly irrelevant outside of the UK (yes I know France can project some power I’m not downplaying them) but they have been dragging their feet and the action is just not going to be in Europe anymore. Australia (and the UK) are far, far more important to the United States. Europe has been unwilling to throw their cards in with America 100% and America is saying well… ok then we can’t rely on you so we’ll do something else.

Look at the repercussions now. France is huffing and puffing and what exactly is going to happen? The Us is still buying French wine and German cars, and the EU is still buying US products and trade is just going to continue on as normal. Who cares?

On the other hand, Australia is vital.

I don’t think NATO exists in a meaningful way anymore and this is just window dressing around what has already happened. Russia is Europe’s problem. And the US is losing a reason to engage when Europe is seemingly not willing to. Think about it. If you take away the saber rattling why would the US give a shit about Russia? It’s an economic backwater. Europe doesn’t want to pony up and show teeth. What is to be gained? Hell, the US and Russia will probably forge better ties going forward.

And yes I’m an American, but I’m just looking at this as I see it geopolitically.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#95

Post by wonnage » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:20 PM UTC

lvs wrote: post #87

tmilard wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well... I feel we got screwed twice !

Does a NATO county selling weapons to a NATO strategic adversary not seem mildly questionable on its own?

They're just not thinking big enough, the US has been creating its own strategic adversaries by selling weapons to terrorists and regretting it 20 years later for decades

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#96

Post by nradov » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:20 PM UTC

taurath wrote: post #47

It’s pretty much an Anglosphere FU to the EU here, but the stakes are one countries military industrial complex vs another. With nuclear tipped deterrents all around the world why are we so determined to play these power games? Not that it’s anything new of course. It reminds me of the future played out in Dune where nobody can act openly against each other so everyone is trained in espionage - what are those subs go…

These are attack submarines. They won't carry ICBMs (or nuclear weapons of any kind) for deterrence. They could potentially be used to pre-emptively sink some Chinese missile submarines, but that's pretty far fetched.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#97

Post by redis_mlc » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:21 PM UTC

markus_zhang wrote: post #82

My observation: 1- US probably predicts that China is gonna breakthrough the first island chain in the next 10 years. 2- France needs to reconsider her Indo-Pacific stratrgy because Aussi explicitly shows that it's going all in with US instead of trying to follow some sort of independent strategy. 3- Win for whoever in EU who supports self defense and a more consolidated Europe. 4- First time a non nuclear country (A…

1) Taiwan is part of the first island chain, so that's next to get pac-manned.

2) it's almost certain that Japan is assembling a-bombs (they already have ICBMs)

3) EU is not winning - they just refuse to invest in self-defense

4) Australia cannot defend itself, so it's good they're making an effort as long as the result is credible.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#98

Post by skhr0680 » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:21 PM UTC

Zababa wrote: post #32

xyk2 wrote: post #7

Is it just me or are there more off-topic political posts on HN lately?

I think the COVID slowed down the open source development scene. For example, we didn't see many JavaScript frameworks these last two years.

I hope it slows down. I never understood why web devs feel the need to reinvent their entire stack annually

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#99

Post by SiempreViernes » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:21 PM UTC

elefanten wrote: post #8

trynumber9 wrote: post #3

It seems like a bit of an overreaction. Is shipbuilding that important to France?

Also genuinely curious. With no judgment, I want to understand the French perspective here. And can anyone weigh in on whether these deals getting scuttled is so rare. Esp for advanced military equipment, I’d think that it’s quite common.

A large part is the behaviour of Australia and the US who just said "Surprise! We're a couple now! Oh, by the way France, I texted you that you've been dumped this morning"

And the reason they did it this way is basically because it was domestically convenient for them to have a press release last Wednesday and they didn't want to bother with first cancelling the contract and waiting even a month with announcing the new alliance that at the moment is entirely on paper.

Re: France Recalls Its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over a Submarine Deal

#100

Post by markus_zhang » Fri, Sep 17, 2021, 11:22 PM UTC

ekabod wrote: post #19

allemagne wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's always about domestic politics. Macron doesn't want to look weak in the leadup to the 2022 election, and it's not hard to see why France would be upset here.

When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?

Refugee is essential a business in Germany.