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Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

ons.gov.uk

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Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#51

Post by bryan0 »

human wrote: post #9

I have been looking for one number. Maybe someone can help me. What is the mortality rate for unvaxxed healthy adults between the age of 18 and 50? I can’t help but be dubious that this group needs vaccination.

This study might help because it breaks down hospitalized patients by comorbidities: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-care/...

of the ~7000 people that died of covid in the study ~1000 had no comorbidities. unfortunately this doesnt break down by vax status, but based on other studies ~90% of hospitalizations are unvaxed. So you can probably get an order of magnitude approximation for your metric.

Unfortunately though this isn't the only metric that should be considered because people with no comorbidities can transmit the virus to people with comorbidities, so you really want to take that into account.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#52

Post by eagsalazar2 »

This data needs to be framed against the % of the population that was vaccinated at the time they contracted the virus, right? Otherwise, for all we know, the vaccine could actually increase mortality if the % vaccinated was smaller than the % of deaths that group represents. I'm assuming that isn't the case but hard to make meaningful conclusions about efficacy without that context. The apparent efficacy of vaccination is at the very least somewhat inflated because between Jan and July is when everyone got vaccinated, I'm assuming in England, like here in the US, basically no one was vaccinated in Jan, Feb.

Also, bucketing people who were vaccinated with previously infected makes sense as an additional lens to look at things through, but it seems odd that they then omitted reporting those group separately. I'm very curious how one did compared to the other.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#54

Post by allturtles »

lmilcin wrote: post #10
allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want…

The elderly were prioritized in getting vaccinated, and they have a higher baseline death rate. So it's still not clear what it means that the # of non-covid deaths in (1) and (2) is roughly the same.

I'm not disputing that the vaccines are effective at preventing death, but that doesn't mean that we can just point to any stat that looks good and celebrate without considering what it actually means.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#55

Post by lmilcin »

eagsalazar2 wrote: post #52

This data needs to be framed against the % of the population that was vaccinated at the time they contracted the virus, right? Otherwise, for all we know, the vaccine could actually increase mortality if the % vaccinated was smaller than the % of deaths that group represents. I'm assuming that isn't the case but hard to make meaningful conclusions about efficacy without that context. The apparent efficacy of vaccinat…

> This data needs to be framed against the % of the population that was vaccinated at the time they contracted the virus, right?

No, it does not.

It compares chance of you dying to covid compared to all other possible causes.

This dimensionless number does not depend on relative population sizes.

So if in one population you get 458 deaths from Covid compared to 57,263 from all other causes and in the other population you get 38,964 from covid compared to 65,170 from all other causes, we can immediately tell that one population fared much better at least when it comes to your chance to die of covid compared to chance of dying to all other causes.

Just by the fact of being in one population than in the other you get (38964/(38964+65170)) / (458/(458+57263)) ~= 47 times less chance of dying to covid assuming rates of deaths to all other causes were the same between both populations.

So what are these population? To be in the better-faring population you had to be fully vaccinated for at least 21 days and the worse population was completely unvaccinated.

Now, I am pretty sure there are other factors that factor in that number 47.

It is likely that vaccinated people treat Covid more seriously and are more likely to practice social distancing, washing hands and be generally mindful of various things you do to minimize chance of getting infected. They might also possibly wait shorter amount of time before calling for help if they see signs. While this is pure conjecture on my part I think it is reasonable to assume this happens to some extent and reduces rates of infection within vaccinated population.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#56

Post by a_conservative »

salynchnew wrote: post #12
tosser1f5a9b78 wrote: post #7

We need to see cardiac events in the vaccinated cohort. I know or know of a dozen since April.

Your anecdote is the most interesting statistic I've read here. I am going to call the CDC and ask them to investigate this immediately. That's really what we should be focusing on. A dozen deaths, not 38,000. /s

HN is full of conjecture and rich discussion on lots of topics. It is better to let people share anecdotes and opinions without ridiculing them.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#57

Post by cortesoft »

howlong wrote: post #33
almost_usual wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mortality only matters to you. Hospitalization matters to everyone.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736... This study suggests about 0.5% of unvaccinated population requires hospitalization. Obviously just one study, but across about six million people, seems a decent back of the envelope guess.

Yeah, and our hospitals are not prepared to have 0.5% of the population hospitalized with covid.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#58

Post by jonplackett »

allturtles wrote: post #54
lmilcin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want…

The elderly were prioritized in getting vaccinated, and they have a higher baseline death rate. So it's still not clear what it means that the # of non-covid deaths in (1) and (2) is roughly the same. I'm not disputing that the vaccines are effective at preventing death, but that doesn't mean that we can just point to any stat that looks good and celebrate without considering what it actually means.

Wouldn't that just point to the vaccine being even better than the stats suggest (by just looking at ratio of deaths of vaccinated / unvaccinated) since the vaccinated group would be the more vulnerable in the first place.

Also there are more people vaccinated than not now so that would also skew the data to make a direct comparison look worse.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#59

Post by simonsarris »

human wrote: post #9

I have been looking for one number. Maybe someone can help me. What is the mortality rate for unvaxxed healthy adults between the age of 18 and 50? I can’t help but be dubious that this group needs vaccination.

In healthy individuals? Very small. In the USA, a not very healthy country, only 3,728 of 529,402 deaths occurred under the age of 29. (38.7% of the population, 0.6% of the deaths.) I was expecting it to be much higher just based on obesity and diabetes and other comorbidity rates alone.

The inflection point happens in the 40's or 50's:

People under 40 are 52% of the population and 2% of COVID deaths (11,212)

Which of course means people over 40 are 48% of the population and 98% of COVID deaths (529,402)

These numbers reflect only cases where the CDC knows their age. The stats are here, which has a nice graph showing just how outsized the deaths as people get older: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics (scroll to "Deaths by Age Group")

Covid is (literally) exponentially worse as you get older. But it's not really an issue for young, healthy people. Alas, not very many people can truly call themselves healthy, which is a concern in its own right.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#60

Post by jjcon »

lmilcin wrote: post #25
trollied wrote: post #5

I'm looking forward to a 3rd vaccine dose if it's offered! The UK govt are looking to offer a Pfizer bosster, regardless of 1st & 2nd dose vaccine types. Mixing looks very effective.

I am looking forward to get everybody else vaccinated before I am getting 3rd dose. Any dose is best spent vaccinating an unvaccinated person, even if looking from a purely selfish point of view of already vaccinated population. There is also still a lot of people that can't get the vaccine in less developed countries.

Unfortunately it doesnt work that way - the infrustructure required for the mass production doses (pfizer, moderna) is pretty huge and third doses will be avilable in most regions long before 'everybody else' has the proper infrustructure in place. For this, it isnt purely zero sum.
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