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Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

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Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#941

Post by tim333 »

SigmundA wrote: post #247
gorwell wrote: post #138

DR. GUPTA: "I get calls all the time, people say, 'I've already had COVID, I'm protected.' And now the study says maybe even more protected than the vaccine alone. Should they also get the vaccine?" DR. FAUCI: "I don't have a really firm answer for you on that." https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1436417459314171904

I think the full response better convey's his position: "You know, that's a really good point, Sanjay. I don't have a really firm answer for you on that. That's something that we're going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response. The one thing that paper from Israel didn't tell you is whether or not as high as the protection is with natural infection, what's the durability compared to the durabilit…

They have some data on durability and natural immunity seems more durable. As seen in the recent Israeli study for example over time pfizer fades more.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#942

Post by tim333 »

Tycho wrote: post #592
javagram wrote: post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lots of experts who regularly interpret this data. Your comment is pretty vague, so I looked at the excel sheet myself - I assume you’re referring to table 5, “Second dose”? The highest death rate in that table is 14.6 per 100k on 2-Jul-21. Meanwhile, looking at the unvaccinated population in that same table, the death rate per 100k starts out at 22 per 100k, goes as high as 66 per 100k in February, and the…

You didn’t notice what is happening in the “21 days after first dose” column? It went from 22 to 100! And if the NHS and other experts noticed it, they for some didn’t include an explanation along with their other comments on the data.

I had a look and have a job figuring which bit you are looking at - I assume its from "Deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021 edition of this dataset"? Though that isn't really "March to August."

Have you considered that at the start of the year few people would have died 21 days after vaccination because that had only just happened. 6 months later more would have died as they would have had 6 months to get dying of various stuff.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#943

Post by tim333 »

thedrbrian wrote: post #220
orwin wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is, actually, antibody test. They are quite costly however. Im my country, getting infected count as the 1rst dose (yes, i know, natural immunity is better with "real" infections, but rememeber that Covid sometime start an auto-immune disease, it's hard to test for this, so its less costly to just vaccinate people (the jab cost 12E)). No scientific response. This is mostly pragmatic, and probably politic too. I…

You can get them for free in the uk https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid...

"Tests are only available to certain groups."

I had to pay £50 for my one in the UK.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#944

Post by tim333 »

lmilcin wrote: post #136

Because it is pretty simple to account for who got the vaccine and who did not. And running entire population through antibody test just to find, in most cases, that you still need to administer the vaccine is just wasteful.

I'm not sure any countries are actually using antibody tests for vaccine passport type purposes. They usually want a past positive PCR test.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#945

Post by SergeAx »

Someone1234 wrote: post #52

The answers aren't medical, they're pragmatic. - COVID-19 Antibody Tests cost more than the vaccine (roughly $40 Vs. $16/dose). - We lack the quantity of Antibody Tests we'd need. - We'd need to set up additional systems and processes to accommodate the testing and proof (which, again, is a cost). The implicit assumption that often go along with these natural immunity proponents is that the vaccine is unsafe. Since i…

In Slovenia antigen test (which is acceptable across EU for 48 hours) priced at 10 EUR in a walk-in center and 12 EUR in drive-in lab. I don't know about the first, but the second is definetely a commercial venture with people employed and a place rented and software written and supported, so it should be even less in wholesale.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#946

Post by sk2020 »

not2b wrote: post #526
sk2020 wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Phase 3 trials won’t be complete for years. There is a revolving door between the leadership at the FDA and Pfizer. Countries with high vaccination rates have not reported the expected reduction in cases or deaths. The non-pharmaceutical interventions adopted by some states appear to have no impact on outcomes when compared to states without them. FDA approval of Comirnaty, which nobody got, is a pretty transparent r…

You make a lot of claims here, but it doesn't seem that they are supported by data. Hospitalization rates and death rates since early summer are drastically different for the vaccinated than for the unvaccinated. Different policies in different US states are producing very different outcomes. You claimed otherwise but did not offer data; here's some data you might consider. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202…

So I Brave searched “cdc weekly provisional counts of deaths by state and select cause 2020-2021”, and I got a useful table from the CDC that you may want to look at yourself. I summed deaths for all causes for FL and CA and divided by their population 39.5M and 21.5M respectively. Yep, FL has about 1.4x more deaths per capita than CA.

Then I downloaded the table for 2014-2019 and performed the same calculations. For that same period FL has … 1.4x more deaths per capita than CA. Maybe that has more to do with the age distribution of their respective populations rather than the wise rule of Gavin Newsome.

I don’t recommend letting journalists do your stats for you.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#947

Post by tim333 »

Causality1 wrote: post #723

Are these people asleep? The vaccines are demonstrably better at producing immunity against strains other than the one you were infected with, particularly against Delta for people who were infected with vanilla or Alpha.

That seems completely untrue from the recent Israeli data.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#948

Post by [deleted] »

throwawayfear wrote: post #753
jonnycomputer wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would hesitate to take one study as definitive either way. Also, I've seen data pointing to important variables of possible interest moderating the potential effectiveness, including age, and severity of first infection.

Please hestitate after providing your sources.

[deleted]

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#949

Post by jonnycomputer »

throwawayfear wrote: post #753
jonnycomputer wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would hesitate to take one study as definitive either way. Also, I've seen data pointing to important variables of possible interest moderating the potential effectiveness, including age, and severity of first infection.

Please hestitate after providing your sources.

I don't need to. As a general matter I never take a single study as definitive. I'd be an idiot if I did.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#950

Post by notacoward »

Flip side: why does vaccination automatically count even though there are conditions and medications that can prevent the body from mounting a sufficient immune response? It's a rare case, but if the goal is to prove immunity then test for immunity (i.e. antibody levels) regardless of cause.
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