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Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

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Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#521

Post by tshaddox »

Meekro wrote: post #513
tshaddox wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, has it really "blown up in their face," or do people just use supposed examples of "strategic messaging" to support their preexisting commitments? In other words, are people actually changing their decisions based on specific examples where public health officials allegedly lied or used strategic messaging, or are they simply using those examples to justify their own actions?

People's opinion of the trustworthiness of authorities wasn't a blank slate when COVID began. Some people already believed (based on their life experience) that authorities are untrustworthy, and therefore chose to be skeptical of their claims during early COVID. Then examples of authorities lying about COVID/masks came out, which convinced those people that they were right all along. They'll be even more skeptical o…

That doesn't seem to explain how the "controversy" seemed to form almost perfectly along existing partisan lines in the United States, unless you're claiming that the baseline "trusthworthiness of authorities" was already divided as cleanly along those lines (which is not at all my impression). Moreover, I feel like preexisting "trusthworthiness of authorities" is very unlikely to be a good explanation for differences in views on vaccines, because I strongly suspect that people on all sides of these disagreements point to people they claim to be authorities in order to corroborate their views.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#522

Post by MisterBastahrd »

cblconfederate wrote: post #121
darthvoldemort wrote: post #21

A recent study from Israel said that natural immunity is an order of magnitude better than vaccine-induced immunity against delta variant. I don't know who to believe, but if that's the case, then the narrative of "well they should get vaccinated anyway" is really freaking suspicious. We need deeper research on this, and the fact that they haven't researched this is truly scary.

13 times actually https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... I think this will be more relevant to vaccinating kids: If this result holds for kids as well, and considering that Covid is not dangerous for kids, maybe kids are better off getting covid

Not dangerous for them except for all the ones who have died from it, you mean.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#523

Post by steveywevy »

fridif wrote: post #489
jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

How can getting the vaccine be the appropriate course of action when 4,000 people have died from it, according to the CDC themselves? I am talking specifically about people who already have been infected with the virus and have survived.

Source?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#524

Post by peteradio »

ryandrake wrote: post #493
isolli wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not wrong in itself, your comment epitomizes everything that has been wrong with our public health response. Trying to manipulate populations into a desired behavior by lying to them is, as you point out, counterproductive in the long run.

OP's statement recognizes that incentives matter. If you remove the incentive to do the right thing, people will simply not do the right thing--If 2020 has taught us anything it has to be that! You can't just rely on everyone being a rational actor and let Nash Equilibrium keep society functioning. It becomes a gigantic Prisoners Dilemma with everyone choosing DEFECT. You complain that "not recognizing natural immuni…

You fail to recognize that 30% plus genuinely did have covid. Why focus on a handful of potential bad actors when largely you should give the benefit of the doubt.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#525

Post by kristjansson »

Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More?

Millions of people will just (continue to) take the risk, get sick, go to hospital, and die (in decreasing proportions), incurring substantial personal and social costs along the way.

Accepting only vaccination as evidence of protection reduces the size of that risk-taking population, and the concomitant social costs.

Should there be a third policy option - accepting test-verified infection and recovery as of _now_ as evidence of protection, but discounting future recoveries? Based on the observational studies cited all over this thread , probably yes. Seems like associated costs would be higher though, and the only benefit would be less gnashing of teeth here and elsewhere, so its understandable the CDC isn't rushing to implement it.

Should those people just be allowed to assume the risk? Not while the costs are predominantly social. Insurance (or tax-payers) pay the financial costs, healthcare workers bear the burden of treating a preventable illness, and we all assume the risk that healthcare resources will be stretched to the point of unavailability. While risk-takers do pay into the same system, their premiums don't yet reflect the increased expected costs of their personal choice. While ICUs often run close to or at capacity in one hospital, rarely do they run close at every hospital in a region, as is happening in the south and will happen elsewhere. While it would be nice if there were more doctors, nurses and facilities able to treat patients, we're at war with the army we've got.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#526

Post by not2b »

sk2020 wrote: post #407
not2b wrote: post #302

The vaccines are cheap (government paid about $20 per dose to buy them in mass quantities), safe, and effective, and in plentiful supply (at least in developed countries). Even if natural immunity provides some protection, better to just get everyone vaccinated to maximize the protection, because it would cost more to determine that someone has effective antibodies than to just give them the shot. The only reason peo…

Phase 3 trials won’t be complete for years. There is a revolving door between the leadership at the FDA and Pfizer. Countries with high vaccination rates have not reported the expected reduction in cases or deaths. The non-pharmaceutical interventions adopted by some states appear to have no impact on outcomes when compared to states without them. FDA approval of Comirnaty, which nobody got, is a pretty transparent r…

You make a lot of claims here, but it doesn't seem that they are supported by data. Hospitalization rates and death rates since early summer are drastically different for the vaccinated than for the unvaccinated. Different policies in different US states are producing very different outcomes. You claimed otherwise but did not offer data; here's some data you might consider.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/10/inescapab...

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#527

Post by pfdietz »

darthvoldemort wrote: post #21

A recent study from Israel said that natural immunity is an order of magnitude better than vaccine-induced immunity against delta variant. I don't know who to believe, but if that's the case, then the narrative of "well they should get vaccinated anyway" is really freaking suspicious. We need deeper research on this, and the fact that they haven't researched this is truly scary.

And natural immunity + 2 doses of vaccine is likely even better.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#528

Post by [deleted] »

bedhead wrote: post #322
isolli wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not wrong in itself, your comment epitomizes everything that has been wrong with our public health response. Trying to manipulate populations into a desired behavior by lying to them is, as you point out, counterproductive in the long run.

Amen. We have been so unbelievably myopic with COVID it truly hurts my head. Even today, ask someone who's COVID-obsessed, "What exactly is your longer-term plan here?" and watch as their mind breaks down. Too many people have completely stopped thinking about what they're trying to achieve and how they're going to do it. Half the country is just stuck, focused on short-term and no attention paid to anything else and…

[deleted]

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#529

Post by kardianos »

ryandrake wrote: post #493
isolli wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not wrong in itself, your comment epitomizes everything that has been wrong with our public health response. Trying to manipulate populations into a desired behavior by lying to them is, as you point out, counterproductive in the long run.

OP's statement recognizes that incentives matter. If you remove the incentive to do the right thing, people will simply not do the right thing--If 2020 has taught us anything it has to be that! You can't just rely on everyone being a rational actor and let Nash Equilibrium keep society functioning. It becomes a gigantic Prisoners Dilemma with everyone choosing DEFECT. You complain that "not recognizing natural immuni…

You're an elitist. Go talk to regular people who value truth.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#530

Post by dnissley »

ryandrake wrote: post #493
isolli wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not wrong in itself, your comment epitomizes everything that has been wrong with our public health response. Trying to manipulate populations into a desired behavior by lying to them is, as you point out, counterproductive in the long run.

OP's statement recognizes that incentives matter. If you remove the incentive to do the right thing, people will simply not do the right thing--If 2020 has taught us anything it has to be that! You can't just rely on everyone being a rational actor and let Nash Equilibrium keep society functioning. It becomes a gigantic Prisoners Dilemma with everyone choosing DEFECT. You complain that "not recognizing natural immuni…

The reason that it's lying is that natural immunity does provide decent protection. You're so focused on incentives in the small that you forgot about incentives in the large -- this type of bs is exactly why people feel entitled to opt into believing "alternative facts".
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