Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#481

Post by walterbell » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:57 PM UTC

isolli wrote: post #165

jjeaff wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the biggest issue is that a lot of people think they had covid previously but didn't get tested so they don't really know. I thought I had covid early in the pandemic. Took a serology test and found out that I had not had it. I suspect a lot of people that think they had it are the same.

Except that antibodies don’t tell the whole story. They may wane after a while, but the immune system is primed to fight off the virus at the next infection thanks to memory B cells and T cells. Unfortunately, T-cell tests are not available in Europe, and apparently not reliable in the US. Which confirms the original point: there seems to be little interest in detecting previous infections.

> apparently not reliable in the US

Which T-cell test(s) are you referencing? What are the rates of false negatives or false positives?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#482

Post by tylermenezes » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:58 PM UTC

Izkata wrote: post #271

throwaway894345 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why? Probably because everyone and their uncle self-diagnosed a bad cold as COVID-19 and plenty more would lie about having natural immunity. Serology is a thing, as are records of positive test results. Also, in many cases, "proof of vaccination" includes a cell phone photo of the piece of paper they handed out when you got a vaccine, so as it stands, lying is pretty easy. > Vaccines are safe and available yet we…

I'd lean towards "probably not safe"; we only just found that teenage boys are at 6x more risk from heart problems from the vaccine than any risk from covid itself: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/09/teenage-boys-ris... https://archive.is/ixG5G

In addition to being somewhat misleading as other commenters hawe pointed out, the first author of this non-peer-reviewed study appears to have a degree in the questionably relevant field of sports medicine.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#483

Post by mactitan » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:58 PM UTC

wrl wrote: post #270

mactitan wrote: post #205

From this article: “When the vaccine was rolled out the goal should have been to focus on people at risk, and that should still be the focus,” says Memoli. Such risk stratification may have complicated logistics, but it would also require more nuanced messaging. “A lot of public health people have this notion that if the public is told that there’s even the slightest bit of uncertainty about a vaccine, then they won’…

That article was published on 4th December, 2020. Have the concerns expressed therein borne out in the 10 month interim?

Yes it’s interesting that they are using previous corona profiles. You would think a yr is long enough but I’m patient and will hedge my bet by losing my job.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#484

Post by shkkmo » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:00 PM UTC

suifbwish wrote: post #263

JoshTriplett wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kids can also be carriers, and more spread among a partially resistant population means more mutation and more variants. Vaccines are in the process of being approved for all ages.

Vaccinated individuals can also carry it. It does not stop spread or contraction. These Vaccines are just supposed to reduce the extreme Symptoms

Vaccinations reduce your chance of getting infected and reduce the average duration of the infection. The combination of these two factors thus reduce the R value of covid in vaccinated populations when compared to unvaccinated populations with identical network topologies and behaviors.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#485

Post by Tycho » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:00 PM UTC

oplav wrote: post #468

Tycho wrote: post #459

Yesterday in England, they published statistics that showed (among other things) the rate of non-covid deaths among vaccinated people greatly increased from March to August. By a factor that dwarfs the improvement in covid-related deaths. For some reason they didn't feel it was necessary to comment on or explain this surprising pattern. I can think of a number of explanations, but it makes me wonder if they are reall…

Do you know how the rate compares to 2019?

Without looking extensively, it seems that it's usually between 1000 and 1500 per 100k per annum, so between 20 to 30 per week as a direct comparison. This seems steady over recent history. This compared to a rate for the vaccinated that went from 20 to 100 over spring and summer. The only thing that springs to mind is that maybe the treatment of with-covid/from-covid deaths became less significant through the year and previously understated alternative causes start showing up in non-covid deaths. Still strange that it has risen so high in absolute terms though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#486

Post by core-utility » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:00 PM UTC

zamadatix wrote: post #389

mactitan wrote: post #205

From this article: “When the vaccine was rolled out the goal should have been to focus on people at risk, and that should still be the focus,” says Memoli. Such risk stratification may have complicated logistics, but it would also require more nuanced messaging. “A lot of public health people have this notion that if the public is told that there’s even the slightest bit of uncertainty about a vaccine, then they won’…

But it was rolled out to those at highest risk first no? It wasn't until many months later my wife (who wasn't employed in healthcare at the time and is relatively young) was able to get scheduled. By that point it had become clear the at risk population hadn't had an opposite effect than intended.

Unfortunately not in much of the country. Many states prioritized healthcare workers, healthcare administrators, and the spouses of healthcare workers regardless of age either simultaneously or before the compromised and elderly. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron Desantis was ridiculed by the media for prioritizing elderly and compromised in his state.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#487

Post by angelzen » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:01 PM UTC

heleninboodler wrote: post #428

tomohawk wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minor correction. That 412 number is "covid involved", not "covid caused". This could be that the death was not at all due to covid, but the cadaver tested positive. They were in a car accident, for example. This could be actually caused by covid primarily. This could be covid tipped someone over the edge who was already very ill. EDIT: also hospitalizations for children are rare https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/CO…

If you are skeptical and think "COVID involved" according to CDC might mean they could have died of other things but also happened to have COVID, then here is an exercise you should do: First, go to CDC and download all the death data for 2015-2020. Second, import this into your spreadsheet of choice and plot all of these deaths as 6 individual time-series plots with Jan-Dec as the X axis. Third, observe that the cur…

The OP asked about kids specifically. Counterpoint:

> Data from the first 12 months of the pandemic in England shows 25 under-18s died from Covid.

> Around 15 had life-limiting or underlying conditions, including 13 living with complex neuro-disabilities

> Six had no underlying conditions recorded in the last five years - though researchers caution some illnesses may have been missed

Were the children with complex neuro-disabilities pushed over the edge by covid? Quite possibly. Is that a reason for parents of healthy children to worry? Unlikely.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#488

Post by jowday » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:01 PM UTC

tommymachine wrote: post #480

jowday wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish I could say that if authorities hadn't lied about, say, masks or this stuff with natural immunity, things would gone a lot better and people would have behaved much more rationally about COVID, but I don't think that's true. I've got family in a small town in the south - the countermeasures they took against COVID basically amounted to Wal-Mart closing for a weekend in March. Most of the people there had made…

And that whole side of your family is dead, right?

No, but we had to put off a lot of medical procedures my grandparents needed done because the hospital beds were so full that they were airlifting people to other states. We also had to move them out of the assisted living facility they were in and provide 24/7 care because the facility started allowing visitors without any screenings.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#489

Post by fridif » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:02 PM UTC

jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

How can getting the vaccine be the appropriate course of action when 4,000 people have died from it, according to the CDC themselves?

I am talking specifically about people who already have been infected with the virus and have survived.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#490

Post by dang » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:02 PM UTC

bigcorp-slave wrote: post #134

Pxtl wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume the proposal is that the vaccine card would be a de-facto immunity card, where a test showing a high antibody count would still be logged on your card as an alternative to the vaccine. But the devil's in the details anyways. How long would that be considered good for, since we'll probably be looking at regular annual boosters? Would extremist anti-vaxxers have a perverse incentive to get infected so as to re…

I’d support an immunity card with the same audit trail for antibody test. I think most people would - general common sense suggests that natural infection should be effective. How long it lasts, I guess we’ll need to study that. Honestly the problem here is not the science. It’s the big clump of people who have turned being against the science into a part of their identity. Every time I think we have hit the bottom a…

Could you please stop posting this sort of inflammatory dross to HN? It's getting downvoted for the obvious reason that it breaks the site guidelines and is not what this site is for.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Edit: you've unfortunately been doing this a ton lately. Moreover, we've asked you repeatedly in the past to stop. If you continue this way we're going to have to ban you, so really, would you please review the guidelines and use HN as intended?