China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites • Hacker News Board

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#71

Post by xxpor » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

kesselvon wrote: post #65

xxpor wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do they have the wherewithal to pull off a deliverable Teller-Ulam thermonuclear warhead, without doing any atmospheric testing? Does Japan even have SLBMs or bombers? It takes a lot more to be a credible nuclear threat than just having some U235 sitting around...

Nuclear weapons are a technology that is almost 100 years old, and is old enough for a country like North Korea to pull off. It has a space program with rockets, a nuclear power sector, etc. It's the thing you do when you want all the pieces for a potential nuclear weapons program without signaling that you're looking to develop a nuclear weapons program. I think the current contemporary estimate is that Japan could…

Note I didn't ask if Japan could make a fission weapon. I have no doubt they could in relatively short order. I also don't doubt given enough time, they could assemble a fusion weapon, they have the resources and smarts. But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#72

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

schuke wrote: post #14

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #4

What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. I wish there were a nicer explanation but it almost looks like they're preparing for war, or at least increasing confrontation.

Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule. The war doesn't have to be real but the appearance of war or preparations for war is a must. Look at North Korea. It's almost always on brink of war with the South. China is moving in NK's direction so people feel war is coming. It's not, it's just that China is becoming more totalitarian. The ruling class don't care, don't want and actually canno…

> Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule.

I like Orwell, but people schematize real things into his examples too much, especially 1984. It's better to pay attention to the real thing as it is.

For instance, I think it's a serious possibility that China will mainly use economic power to expand its empire, by using markets to foster dependency in ways you can't really do if you've swallowed free market propaganda and your main motive is profit. The end goal could be something like China at the center of the world, with its ideology and system having prestige and setting the standard, surrounded by clearly-subordinate tributaries. That'd be great if your main ideological commitment is to Chinese nationalism, but not so great if you care about anything else.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#73

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:20 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #42

throwaway_2047 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to live in Hong Kong. In the past 2 year situation has been Orwellian. News outlet being shutdown, pro-democratic parties dismissed, charities disbanded, whole members of political party got arrested, among others. At least 1% of the population fled the city in the first half of 2021. In a parallel universe, and completely unrelated note, my friends in China, thinks their country can finally stand-up against t…

When Trump was elected China had no better time to finally act. A destabilized and distracted west and political cover for actions as responses to Trump's aggressive on China tone. Even now, we're not out of the woods yet. The west is still dealing with the lingering effects of Trumpism and Covid has balance sheets and attentions. Consolidating power now while nobody in the world will really challenge them. The democ…

Trump was a symptom of a huge disruption due to globalization.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#74

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

pphysch wrote: post #64

president wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has escalated in the past few years but they've been preparing for decades. Last month, Chinese warships were spotted [1] near Alaska. I find it strange that these acts of aggression are not known by your average American citizen. [1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3148725/us-...

Until the Chinese have carriers perpetually parked in the Gulf of Mexico, they haven't even begun to reciprocate Washington's naval aggression in the South China Sea.

A better analogy would be closer to California, because the US is protecting trade routes.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#75

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

cybernautique wrote: post #59

vmception wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just one of many plans that now has a decent opportunity presented. China can sometimes seem arbitrary but its much easier to think of it as a theme park than what we respect as governments. At a theme park, run by a corporation, you understand there are rules that can be enforced, your participation is limited and conditional, anything exploitative or erotic will be policed swiftly and heavily, and some exhibits are…

I never thought I'd see an unironic invocation of panem-et-circenses[1], especially with regards to a sinofascist regime. It is extremely incorrect, untoward, and downright harmful to draw parallels between the CCP and, say, Busch Gardens. In a theme park, run by a corporation, I understand that the proprietors of said park will not: drag me to a detention camp; do the same, or worse, for the unfortunate souls who sh…

Maybe a doom park is better?

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#76

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

esyir wrote: post #67

roenxi wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan. But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes. It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrape…

The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

> The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors.

From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#77

Post by mensetmanusman » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:32 PM UTC

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #6

aurizon wrote: post #3

deleted, the comments revealed the flaws

It would never happen. Musk wants to sell cars in China, Tesla has important factories there as well. The Chinese government has a lot more leverage when it comes to these companies, they could simply shut them down without warning and crash the shareholder's stocks.

I don’t know if this is true, especially in the case of Tesla.

The fact is, China prevents money from leaving their country, so any western company in China is kind of a farce, because they can’t actually take their money out if they make any. What they do hope to get out of China though is intellectual property, which can pass boundaries without taxes.

If Musk really has a utopian goal of decreasing emissions, he couldn’t care less if China took over Tesla China, because he won’t be making actual money from Tesla China anyway. Instead, he hopes that manufacturing innovations and ideas can be shared to his other factories.

If china took over tesla China and didn’t share innovations, that would just be stupid on their part, because the rest of the world would be working together and sharing innovation without them.

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#78

Post by rjzzleep » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:40 PM UTC

jszymborski wrote: post #51

rjzzleep wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA. Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des... https://…

The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though. > "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."

No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight.

It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016.

"On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45]

On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#79

Post by pphysch » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:42 PM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #74

pphysch wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until the Chinese have carriers perpetually parked in the Gulf of Mexico, they haven't even begun to reciprocate Washington's naval aggression in the South China Sea.

A better analogy would be closer to California, because the US is protecting trade routes.

Protecting trade routes from whom? Itself?

https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/us-seeks-seizure-ira...

Re: China uses anti-fraud app to track access to overseas financial news sites

#80

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:43 PM UTC

xxpor wrote: post #61

ashtonkem wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't speak to the delivery aspect, but I don't think you'd even need a Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. But the delivery aspect matters a lot, obviously.

> Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. Granted, I haven't read a ton of analysis on this, but my guess would be that you do if you're going up against someone with their own thermonuclear bombs. If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? If they got to that level, I'm sure that would be considered…

> If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon?

I don't think it works that way. Fission bombs are perfectly capable of leveling a city. If a city gets leveled, no one's going to shrug it off because it was done with the "wrong" kind of weapon.

IIRC, modern thermonuclear warheads have yields along the lines of a couple hundred kilotons. Even through theoretically they can be made much more powerful, in practice they aren't.