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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
41–50 of 560 posts
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
How will these vaccines that don't produce immunity lead to less severe variants? If they mute severity of illness they will lead to more severe variants. This is basic.
They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases, so it massively reduces the population that mutations can happen in.
> They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases
So not conservative. Real world data has all of them at under 80% now.
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-compariso...
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#43I think this is the correct analysis - the focus should be to provide vaccines to the rest of the worlds nations that have not yet gotten widespread access to vaccines. This is likely to cause the greatest benefit in the form of fewer global deaths, and reduced global spread of the disease.
If they can keep the Moderna, and Pfizer vaccine, at below freeing? I just picture America the "great" delivering vaccines, and there's no infrastructure on the other end. On a selfish note, I wouldn't mind closing all ports of entry until this virus is truly under control.
I don’t understand what closing all ports of entry will do (in USA) at this point. The virus is already here and all travel to USA requires a negative covid test taken at most 72 hrs before flight.
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#44The paper is thoughtful. The reporting on it is reckless. An accurate headline would be: "Vaccine experts: Widespread booster mandates aren't needed now," or perhaps "recommendations" There's a line between: * Mandatory. * Recommended. * Allowed. * Banned. If I am flying to do humanitarian work in Vietnam tomorrow, I absolutely need a booster shoot. Right now, the only way to get that is to go to a state which doesn'…
Why do you "absolutely" need a booster shot? Are you immunocompromised? How do you know what your level of protection currently is? Even if you did a test to look at your antibody titers, antibody titers aren't the end all and be all of immunity (think T-cells).
Well, I'm not flying to Vietnam tomorrow, so I'm not claiming I personally need a booster shot.
However:
- Vietnam is an epicenter right now, so my odds of catching COVID would be high.
- They are well beyond hospital capacity, so if I do have a serious case, it's uncertain I'll receive quality care (and if I do, I'm taking a bed from someone else)
We don't have full data, so the right way to think about this is with expected outcomes based on best available data. Best available data, in this scenario, places the likely reduction of risks of COVID19 as a much greater risk reduction than any potential risk of vaccines:
- We do have multiple studies about how immunity wanes over time from vaccination. Those provide better ground-truth data than theoretical arguments.
- We also have some estimates of breakthrough rates, and severity of infection
We don't have good data on long COVID post-vaccine, so that's a place we need to make an educated guess and rely on theoretical arguments.
You can plug whatever sane numbers you want, but in this scenario -- humanitarian work in an epicenter with limited hospital capacity -- a booster shot makes sense.
For other scenarios -- for example general population -- whether a booster makes sense is still often within the very large error bars of the limited data, and reasonable people can disagree, much as the authors of the Lancet article and the CDC currently do. Once more data rolls in, we'll know.
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#45They need to make the actual data based argument not just appeal to authority. Booster shots have these benefits, these risks, and these tertiary effects. The argument seems to be that boosters have small increases in immunity, very small difficult to quantify side effects likely similar, and because of limited global supply and large numbers of unvaccinated. The optimal deployment might be a very few should have boo…
Looking at Israel third dose boosters are pretty much the only thing that stopped their deaths from growing in lock step with their cases: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccin...
Without them they were headed to the same daily death rate per million as the US. How they are at half the death rate.
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
How will these vaccines that don't produce immunity lead to less severe variants? If they mute severity of illness they will lead to more severe variants. This is basic.
I heard against the Delta variant, RNA vaccines help divide the chance of contaminating others by at least two, even if you're asymptomatic (because basically, the virus last half the tine in your body). And also, since you're contaminated for less time, there is fewer chance of a variant popping out of a vaccinated person. Take it as someone who heard someone talk about it, did not research himself (because i don't…
Halving is not good enough when the infectivity is very high.
The Vietnam study showed that 49/69 "trained doctors and nurses" gave the virus to each other despite being vaccinated. God only knows how many patients they infected. see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 for details.
(But this is HN, and I will be downvoted into oblivion. Carry on folks. Keep ignoring the data.)
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really don't understand the vaccines for all push: A - The benefit for young people seems to be outweighed by the risk, for a given time period. The risk of mortality from vaccine induced clots in under 40s is twice the risk of death from Covid [0] (post relates to AZ but other vaccines has similar clot risks). The risk of hospitalisation from myocarditis is a multiple of the risk of hospitalisation from Corona, es…
Bullshit. The CDC reports ~3,500 people below 30 dying of covid, as opposed to a rate of 7 in 1 million developing a blood clot (which isn't implicitly fatal), or 2,800 if everyone were vaccinated. Aside from that, vaccination helps everyone by helping to prevent the spread of the virus.
Except that it doesn't prevent spread. If you are less symptomatic because vaccine limited the severity, you will be more likely to be functioning socially and spreading it.
Also, a million doses to kids will likely result in one less ICU admission but create six myocarditus cases. What's the five year average outcome for those six kids?
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you "absolutely" need a booster shot? Are you immunocompromised? How do you know what your level of protection currently is? Even if you did a test to look at your antibody titers, antibody titers aren't the end all and be all of immunity (think T-cells).
Well, I'm not flying to Vietnam tomorrow, so I'm not claiming I personally need a booster shot. However: - Vietnam is an epicenter right now, so my odds of catching COVID would be high. - They are well beyond hospital capacity, so if I do have a serious case, it's uncertain I'll receive quality care (and if I do, I'm taking a bed from someone else) We don't have full data, so the right way to think about this is with…
Mostly in agreement - I would note that the Lancet article gives a few arguments with citations as to why the vaccine efficacy decreases might be statistical artifacts, and so I think you may be a little over-confident on your bullet there. But I agree that there is data on both sides, and strongly agree with your general approach of accounting for the possibility that vaccine efficacy could be waning in your risk model and updating behavior accordingly.
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#49The paper is thoughtful. The reporting on it is reckless. An accurate headline would be: "Vaccine experts: Widespread booster mandates aren't needed now," or perhaps "recommendations" There's a line between: * Mandatory. * Recommended. * Allowed. * Banned. If I am flying to do humanitarian work in Vietnam tomorrow, I absolutely need a booster shoot. Right now, the only way to get that is to go to a state which doesn'…
> If I am flying to do humanitarian work in Vietnam tomorrow, I absolutely need a booster shoot.
You are saying that like its a shot of espresso... What is yourthough process to think that is good idea to take N-shots of vaccine that clearly is not working as it was prommised... I dont remember any1 talking about 3 dose in Jan/Feb. Narration was you take 1 shot of J&J or 2 Pfizer or other
Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
They reduce severity of illness, and don't produce sterilizing immunity and eliminate transmission. And that's the problem, if you pick up a nasty mutation but because of vaccine you are able to still function, you are more likely to be out and about spreading it. And when your limited immunity wanes in a few months this mutinous bastard copy you pushed on the masses may come back to bite you in the ass. Maybe not th…
What data are you referencing to claim that the vaccines do not provide some immunity? But importantly, the vaccines do reduce transmission. See the below study along with others. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 Admittedly, one weakness of the above study is that it took place before Delta was widespread. There isn't a lot of data yet on how much the vaccines reduce transmission with Delta, but the…
Reducing transmission isn't good enough! If you have an R naught above one you're still in trouble. It's common knowledge that countries with highest vaccination rates have spikes in cases right now. Israel and Gibraltar for example. Herd immunity for this was always impossible.