Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#31

Post by snakeboy » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:18 AM UTC

mandmandam wrote: post #18

b112 wrote: post #6

This title is misleading. It isn't about them not being needed. Instead, as per article, it is about how these shots will save more lives, if administered to people without access to first shots! If vaccine doses were unlimited worldwide, 3rd shots (according to article logic) would by recommended for all.

I really don't understand the vaccines for all push: A - The benefit for young people seems to be outweighed by the risk, for a given time period. The risk of mortality from vaccine induced clots in under 40s is twice the risk of death from Covid [0] (post relates to AZ but other vaccines has similar clot risks). The risk of hospitalisation from myocarditis is a multiple of the risk of hospitalisation from Corona, es…

Speaking as another young male with no comorbidities, I do tons of reckless shit that put myself at way higher risk for no other reason than to entertain myself and my friends. So I figured I might as well get vaccinated if it's a tiny societal positive with no non-negligible risk to myself.

> ...the vaccine on the entire adult population [in France] would avert 10 deaths from Covid among 18-39-year-olds, but would be associated with 21 deaths from blood clotting in the same age grouping over the same time period.

There are ~16 million 18-39 year olds in France. So both those risks seem vanishingly small.

I'm not saying that marketing of vaccines has been honest overall, but that's just my 2 cents about "WHY in God's name I would risk taking an mRNA vaccine".

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#32

Post by fabian2k » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:18 AM UTC

mandmandam wrote: post #18

b112 wrote: post #6

This title is misleading. It isn't about them not being needed. Instead, as per article, it is about how these shots will save more lives, if administered to people without access to first shots! If vaccine doses were unlimited worldwide, 3rd shots (according to article logic) would by recommended for all.

I really don't understand the vaccines for all push: A - The benefit for young people seems to be outweighed by the risk, for a given time period. The risk of mortality from vaccine induced clots in under 40s is twice the risk of death from Covid [0] (post relates to AZ but other vaccines has similar clot risks). The risk of hospitalisation from myocarditis is a multiple of the risk of hospitalisation from Corona, es…

No, other vaccines certainly do not have the same thrombosis risk as AZ. We easily have enough data here that we would have seen that by now. There is the myocarditis risk for the mRNA vaccines, but that is quite a different thing than the thrombosis risk for AZ. The myocarditis is not deadly.

The argument for vaccination of young boys is more complex, and different expert panels have come to different conclusions there. The UK is more of an outlier in this case. There is still enough uncertainty here, especially on the consequences of the infection itself that it's a really difficult decision.

As for point C, there is no reason to believe that Novavax would be safer than the mRNA vaccines. It could be, but there isn't anything inherently superior here that would automatically make it safer.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#33

Post by fsh » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:21 AM UTC

mandmandam wrote: post #18

b112 wrote: post #6

This title is misleading. It isn't about them not being needed. Instead, as per article, it is about how these shots will save more lives, if administered to people without access to first shots! If vaccine doses were unlimited worldwide, 3rd shots (according to article logic) would by recommended for all.

I really don't understand the vaccines for all push: A - The benefit for young people seems to be outweighed by the risk, for a given time period. The risk of mortality from vaccine induced clots in under 40s is twice the risk of death from Covid [0] (post relates to AZ but other vaccines has similar clot risks). The risk of hospitalisation from myocarditis is a multiple of the risk of hospitalisation from Corona, es…

This is simply not true. The CDC has published a detailed analysis of the vaccine efficacy and known side effects [1]. This clearly shows that the benefit of being vaccinated vastly outweighs the risk due to side effects in all age groups >= 18 (only adults were considered in this analysis). Even in young males (18-29) they estimate that the risk of hospital admission due to COVID is an order of magnitude higher than the risk of myocarditis (which usually does not require hospital admission).

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e4.htm

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#34

Post by dmix » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:21 AM UTC

I’m curious what happened to all of the other vaccines that were in development, which we heard about in 2020. Now it still only seems to be Moderna and Pfizer.

If supply is a major constraint we would benefit from expanding the number of options in the market and have more pharma production built in other countries.

Although the pharma cartel is a very small community with a few mega firms. Making vaccine development an even smaller subset.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#35

Post by swader999 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #26

b112 wrote: post #6

This title is misleading. It isn't about them not being needed. Instead, as per article, it is about how these shots will save more lives, if administered to people without access to first shots! If vaccine doses were unlimited worldwide, 3rd shots (according to article logic) would by recommended for all.

The problem with this sort of analysis is that the logistical concerns of shipping vaccine doses are immense. For one thing, single "doses" don't exist - both Pfizer and Astrazeneca are distributed in multi-dose vials. If you as a patient are given a dose at the end of the day, and no one else is available right then and there to receive it, then that's anywhere from 1 to 5 doses which are literally thrown away. As v…

And this virus mutates which also limits the shelf life.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#36

Post by foota » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

mandmandam wrote: post #18

b112 wrote: post #6

This title is misleading. It isn't about them not being needed. Instead, as per article, it is about how these shots will save more lives, if administered to people without access to first shots! If vaccine doses were unlimited worldwide, 3rd shots (according to article logic) would by recommended for all.

I really don't understand the vaccines for all push: A - The benefit for young people seems to be outweighed by the risk, for a given time period. The risk of mortality from vaccine induced clots in under 40s is twice the risk of death from Covid [0] (post relates to AZ but other vaccines has similar clot risks). The risk of hospitalisation from myocarditis is a multiple of the risk of hospitalisation from Corona, es…

Bullshit. The CDC reports ~3,500 people below 30 dying of covid, as opposed to a rate of 7 in 1 million developing a blood clot (which isn't implicitly fatal), or 2,800 if everyone were vaccinated.

Aside from that, vaccination helps everyone by helping to prevent the spread of the virus.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#37

Post by technothrasher » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

swader999 wrote: post #21

dtech wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do provide immunity in 95% (conservative) of cases, so it massively reduces the population that mutations can happen in.

They reduce severity of illness, and don't produce sterilizing immunity and eliminate transmission. And that's the problem, if you pick up a nasty mutation but because of vaccine you are able to still function, you are more likely to be out and about spreading it. And when your limited immunity wanes in a few months this mutinous bastard copy you pushed on the masses may come back to bite you in the ass. Maybe not th…

What data are you referencing to claim that the vaccines do not provide some immunity? But importantly, the vaccines do reduce transmission. See the below study along with others.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717

Admittedly, one weakness of the above study is that it took place before Delta was widespread. There isn't a lot of data yet on how much the vaccines reduce transmission with Delta, but the likelihood is that they still do even if to a lesser degree.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#38

Post by hellbannedguy » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

occz wrote: post #5

I think this is the correct analysis - the focus should be to provide vaccines to the rest of the worlds nations that have not yet gotten widespread access to vaccines. This is likely to cause the greatest benefit in the form of fewer global deaths, and reduced global spread of the disease.

If they can keep the Moderna, and Pfizer vaccine, at below freeing?

I just picture America the "great" delivering vaccines, and there's no infrastructure on the other end.

On a selfish note, I wouldn't mind closing all ports of entry until this virus is truly under control.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#39

Post by colechristensen » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

They need to make the actual data based argument not just appeal to authority.

Booster shots have these benefits, these risks, and these tertiary effects.

The argument seems to be that boosters have small increases in immunity, very small difficult to quantify side effects likely similar, and because of limited global supply and large numbers of unvaccinated.

The optimal deployment might be a very few should have boosters, and the rest of supply should be directed towards people who want but can’t yet get vaccines.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#40

Post by swader999 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:23 AM UTC

apetrovic wrote: post #22

encryptluks2 wrote: post #2

Good cause if they are anything like the 2nd dose shots they should find a way to compensate people for missing 2 days of work with headaches, fever, chills, body ache, etc.

It's like an insurance - you pay with chills now to avoid bigger hit later (more serious sickness or death).

Or if you are young and healthy pay with a real infection for more robust immunity going forward